Thanks StormChazer for the maps.
Currently I would say the NWS Tulsa map above is the most likely scenario for those of us in NW AR based on current model runs. As most of us have heard before cold, shallow air typically has a very difficult time oozing through the Ozark and Boston Mountains. This begins pretty much at the Benton/Washington County line in Arkansas and struggles to push south of there. The models seem to depict that pretty well with the surface temp projections.
I recall previous ice/sleet storms where portions of far NW Benton Co (Gravette) are snow while a few miles SE is sleet.
Not sure if any of that is helpful. Unfortunately I’m not super knowledgeable on the 850mb piece of things that JoMo has mentioned a few times so I can’t speak to that part too much.
The 18z maps above are marginally better than the GFS was. Looks like there will be a very sharp cutoff for some of us. Those of you in SW MO and Tulsa/north are probably in the sweet spot for more snow accumulations. Let’s hold out hope the 00z runs shift back SE a bit.