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The Waterboy

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  1. The Waterboy
    Definitely not trending in our favor to stay out of an ice storm.
  2. The Waterboy
    Good to hear the 06z was better. The 00 Euro was definitely the outlier so far. The trend still continues for a major event in our area.
  3. The Waterboy
    The 00z Canadian is absolutely bonkers for pretty much all of us! The Kuchera snow maps are nuts.
  4. The Waterboy
    I guess I should educate myself on 850 temps then! LOL!
  5. The Waterboy
    I could be wrong but I question the GFS precip maps. We will have some warm air advection over the top but I find it hard to believe locations with surface temps in the mid teens to low 20’s have heavy sleet. I don’t recall ever seeing that before. The Euro/CMC colder, more snow solution seems to be more plausible. We shall see…
  6. The Waterboy
    18z Icon even colder than the 12z run. Heaviest QPF shifted a bit SE into Central/SE AR but snow line also pushed SE. Joplin with a foot at hr120 when the run ends. Tulsa between 7-10” and still snowing.
  7. The Waterboy
    The last couple of runs of the Canadian push the cold air in much quicker. 12z yesterday at hour 132: Tulsa -37 Joplin - 33 Bentonville -38 12z run today at hour the same time (hour 108) Tulsa - 26 Joplin - 23 Bentonville - 27 12z GFS today at 108 - Tulsa - 20 Joplin- 21 Bentonville - 29 Also, For what it’s worth the 12z Icon is quicker with the cold air too with temps even colder than both the GFS and CMC.
  8. The Waterboy
    Do you have the 06 Euro?
  9. The Waterboy
    12z ICON maps haven’t all loaded on TropicalTidbits yet but it looks like a HUGE amount of precip with temps in the teens and 20’s.
  10. The Waterboy
    06z and 12z GFS runs both have brutal cold that rivals last year’s -15 here in NW AR. Temps behind the cold front drop rapidly as precip is moving in. I would think that would limit fz rain/sleet with a fairly quick transition to snow.
  11. The Waterboy
    00z GFS shifted south some. More snow than ice for the most part. Still looks a bit wonky about hr 150 but nothing to worry about for now. The trend was good.
  12. The Waterboy
    Yes it did. Wow. Huge fz rain amounts in AR.
  13. The Waterboy
    Can you educate me (us) on what’s missing for the 24th storm? The wave digs deep into Baja and ejects east nicely but seems to be too open. Do we just need it to be more closed off, negative tilt, etc? I also see the northern wave of energy that looks to phase as it moves into the northeast. Does that need to happen faster? Thanks for teaching us, Yoda!
  14. The Waterboy
    Heavier snow just missed us to the south. Fayetteville area getting moderate to heavy snow with roads already covered.
  15. The Waterboy
    Agreed! Benton County, AR gets hit solid. MoWeatherGuy and I will take it!!!
  16. The Waterboy
    The last 3-4 runs of the GFS (including 12z) have the NW trend too. Still looks to be very light amounts but still something to watch. Sounds like the cold air behind the front on Thursday will be bigger story. QPF on the GFS/RGEM is less than 1/10 inch. NAM is about 1/10.
  17. The Waterboy
    Since there’s nothing much to talk about take a look at hr 84 of the 18z NAM. Significant snow moving into Western KS and the OK panhandle. EDIT: No other models show this. CMC has a minor something. Other models are zilch.
  18. The Waterboy
    I had the same thing happen yesterday in the far NW county of Arkansas. Snow was falling in every direction around me while I was in the donut hole for a good 2+ hours. Very maddening and unusual.
  19. The Waterboy
    Full disclosure: I was a bit overzealous with my measuring abilities this morning. Blame it on lack of coffee or sleep deprivation. I was sticking the measuring tape too deep (insert “that’s what she said” joke here…) and therefore was wrong. Just re-measured around 2”. Maybe a slight bit of melting but still. Just didn’t want to lose my slight bit of credibility with you fine folks! Nice sized flakes coming down now.
  20. The Waterboy
    Looks like a lot of us may get dry slotted quite a bit for a while.
  21. The Waterboy
    In Bentonville I measured 15 different spots in the yard where it hasn’t drifted and show just shy of 4”. Sure doesn’t look like that much.
  22. The Waterboy
    Zoom in on the South Central US and then it shows. Doesn’t show on the continental US map.
  23. The Waterboy
    Yes. In Bentonville about 5 minutes from the WMT Home Office. Are you in Bella Vista?
  24. The Waterboy
    That’s crazy! The 00z RAP looks almost identical at hour 21 (as far as it goes out) and it’s still snowing.
  25. The Waterboy
    19z RAP looks good for most of us. It has shifted compared to the 15z run which is a good thing. Slightly lower total around Tulsa but looks more in line with GFS/NAM/CMC.
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