The Waterboy

Well that’s an interesting change. A little further north and we’re all in business. Yesterday some of the model runs had it deep into the Gulf.

12z NAM, GFS, and RGEM increased totals over SW MO and NW AR. GFS-Para increased totals significantly. Actual temp right now is about 3-4 degrees colder than what models (including hires) had forecasted.

I agree! It’s looking good for those of us here in NW AR. Not to be Debbie Downer but the 18 and 00z HRRR runs haven’t been great. The 12z was killer but it’s backed off since. Temps seem to be too warm.

Looks like 2m temps are right on the border at 32-34. Are we threading a needle here? We should get some assistance from it being overnight hours. Not sure how wet bulbing would play into things either. But the slight west trend looks good. 18z HRRR starts shortly...

12z HRRR just went nuts for SW MO and Northern AR. It even has snow as far south as Fort Smith.

I’ll take the 18z RGEM for the win please.

I’ll take the trend on the 12z Euro being well south so the inevitable NW shift will put us in the strike zone! LOL

GFS-PARA 12z fairly similar to CMC. OK/AR get hammered.

Interesting details from ICT NWS this afternoon: LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 252 PM CST Sun Jan 3 2021 * Wintry precip remains possible WED/THU * Relatively low forecast confidence during this period The focus during this period continues to be the mid-week system, and what impact it will have locally. Ensemble guidance continue to trend deeper and a bit further S/SW with a s/w that is forecast to move out of the Rockies and potentially close off over/near the Central/Southern Plains. Of note, this wave is still well out over the Pacific Ocean (south of Alaska), so expect changes in the track and intensity as the system draws near. Of note, ensemble QPF amounts haven`t shown any significant trends in wetter vs drier. However, ensemble spread among the various members has increased, suggesting even less confidence at this juncture. Given all of the above, I tried not to stray too far from the previous forecast regarding temps/wind/precip. We`ll continue to message the potential for some wintry precipitation with this system, especially late Wednesday into Thursday, but this is far from a certainty. If you think the mid-week system carries some uncertainty, then look no further than the end of the week. It appears a broad trough will get carved out over the western half of the CONUS. Within this trough, models show a bunch of shortwaves "dancing around" each other, giving very low predictability. Perhaps what is most certain is colder air being locked in place, but that`s about where the certainty ends. If the cold air does, indeed, remain locked in place, then any precip that develops late in the week could be of the frozen/freezing variety.

Same for me. It was some nice mood flakes regardless. Also, is that the RadarScope app? I haven’t forked over $10 for it but thinking about it. Is it worth it? The Weather Channel and Accuweather app radars suck.

Decent snow shower in NW AR right now.

This is hilarious. So many inappropriate jokes came to mind when I read that!!!! LOL.

The difference between the 00 HRRR and NAM are crazy. Significant SE shift on the HRRR. Hummmm...

Sounds about right. I agree with that interpretation.

Does “sharper upper level trough” mean further west? I’m not sure how to interpret that.

A 50 mile shift east or west and a couple of degrees up or down will have a big impact on a lot of us. Going to be fun to watch.

Just started here too!

Nothing in Bentonville yet but it’s very close if you’re getting some now.

I’ve held out hope until now but looks like it’s time to tap out for those of us in NW AR. Not happening this time. Hopefully you guys north and west cash in.

And quite a bit SE of the 12z run.

Thanks for the reminder on looking at the 500 mb vort. I checked it out on all the models for comparison. It’s deep into Northern Mexico and crosses into TX just west of Brownsville. As we’ve stated, the CMC moves it a bit further east before starting the N/NE track. Lots of details to work out in the next 12+ hours especially as the shorter range models come into play.

I could be incorrect but the track of the surface low (especially on the 12z NAM) seems odd. It runs from Brownsville to Houston then due north from Dallas to Tulsa. Not saying it won’t happen that way but it isn’t typical from what I recall. Our best track for snow is roughly Houston to Shreveport to Memphis. Doesn’t look promising. To Jomo’s point, if the west trend continues, frozen precip may end up west of OKC and Wichita.

That ICON run was very similar to the 12z Canadian as far as the track. We’ll see what Canada has for us shortly.

00z Hrrr is interesting. Snow and ice west of OKC breaking out by H35. Thoughts from anyone?

NAM, CMC, and RDPS continue to be further east with crippling ice. GFS and Euro further west and warmer. ICON is way west and can probably be ignored for now.