The Waterboy

Decent sized flakes falling in Bentonville this morning. 33 degrees. Very unexpected.

00z ICON for the win next week.

NAM keeps trending a few degrees warmer. Most of us were right on the edge in earlier runs. 0z didn’t trend in our favor.

NWS Tulsa: Now to the big challenge of this forecast. For several days, models have brought a strong wave across the Plains just to our south Tuesday with widespread precipitation expected on the system`s north side, that has never been in question. What has been in question was the amount of cold air the system would have to work with. Today`s runs, especially the NAM which tends to handle low level cold air better, have trended colder behind the back door front that will be working its way into the region late Monday into Tuesday. As such, this forecast will trend colder at the surface and will have more snow accumulation across NE OK and NW AR. Raw model snow accumulation forecasts from the NAM and ECMWF suggest that advisory level snow accumulation is possible anywhere north of I-40 Tuesday into Tuesday night. The main question will be the marginal temps near the ground. If it`s a rain/snow mix that would greatly cut the accumulation potential. There is also light icing potential in the terrain of NW AR. Precipitation should come to an end by Wednesday morning as the system moves off to the east. Bottom line, travel impacts from winter weather are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly north of I-40.

Significant temp difference between the GFS and NAM (no surprise there). The NWS discussions are considerably different as well. Tulsa way more bullish then OKC, Springfield, and Little Rock.

Bentonville had enough to barely coat the grass and rooftops. I wouldn’t even call it a dusting.

Here’s some interesting history for you for Fayetteville snowfall over the years. Maybe this helps you feel better. Or not... Here are the top 4 maximum snowfall years since records started in 1949. 1. 27” in 2010 2. 23.5” - 1978 3. 20.5 - 1960 4. 20.4 - 2011 That means 2 of the top four record years were within the last 10 years. Unfortunately 3 of the bottom 7 years have occurred since 2012. And 8 of the bottom 10 have occurred since 1998. 2 inches a year keeps you out of the bottom 10 so it doesn’t take much.

Tulsa issued a WWA for a few counties in extreme NEOK/NWAR. Up to 1 inch.

Still looks possible that SW MO and extreme NWA eek out a dusting or so late tonight/tomorrow morning.

Bentonville has about 1/2 inch. Local news said Fort Smith had an inch and Van Buren had 2. Snow started there around 5 am. I think the extra hour or so of darkness might have helped their totals a bit. I was surprised to hear Fayetteville got zilch.

Based on previous conversations here I’m not sure this holds much merit but I’ll throw it out anyway. One of the short range models (WRF-ARW2) shows some fairly impressive wraparound snow. Has snow in Benton Co, AR for 18 hours straight from hr 30 to 48. The NAM has the same rough idea but not near as bullish. Again, note my disclaimer this may be garbage. But interesting. And still gives a bit of hope for some backside fun.

Very difficult to not be frustrated by this one. The heavier bands set up for some of us like the models generally showed. Instead of 1-2”/hr snowfall rates it has piss poured sleet here for an hour while it’s 27 degrees. This just isn’t our decade...

This kinda sucks from NWS Norman office. Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Norman OK 933 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020 .UPDATE... Main impact of evening update was to decrease snow/sleet amounts most areas for overnight and Saturday morning. Still could see an axis of enhanced sleet/snow accumulations from western north Texas and adjacent Oklahoma counties of south-central Oklahoma, north and northeast into central Oklahoma overnight and Saturday morning as upper trough lifts out. Western parts of Oklahoma may see brief flurries but nothing impactful. We have adjusted the winter weather advisory to remove northwest Oklahoma and add a few counties across western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Overall, most locations that see snow will see less than an inch, but given very cold trough, prolonged saturated dendritic zone from around Wichita Falls up through the I-44 corridor overnight and tomorrow morning, there could still be periodic bands of moderate snow that could create impacts. Initially, there could also be patchy freezing rain/sleet that could help bridges and overpasses to become slick. A minimal type advisory event, but not worth canceling entire advisory. Big takeaway is the very cold wind chill values much of tomorrow, which I think we might get right.

NWS Tulsa finally issues a Winter Storm Warning after 1700+ days. Glad that drought is over.

Cold front is on the move. Ponca City - 41 degrees 70 miles east in Bartlesville it’s still 61 Wichita is 32.

18z HRRR looks good for most of us.

My very uneducated opinion is that the details of the HRRR aren’t extremely reliable when looking at minute details. As you pointed out, if you look back a few hours the details seem to vary widely at times. I like to see the strong def band back in NW TX on the 16z even though parts ok OK aren’t filled in. I think it’s a better look than the 12z. Again, just my 2 cents.

I think here in NWAR we may see at least a couple of hours of fz rain (minimal) and sleet before the transition to snow. This continues to cut down on snow totals. Canadian has Benton County at 30 degrees at hour 24 and down to 26 at hour 30. The precip maps show rain at 24 and mix at 30. Sleet at 26 degrees is certainly possible but hopefully we get a transition to snow. As usual with complex situations like this, someone will over perform whiles others lose out (more sleet). Let the games begin!

The track of the NAM still looks good (and better than some previous runs) Not as juiced as we’d like to see, but not terrible. I’m ready to get to tomorrow morning so we can start tracking it real time on the radar.

Any update from the 18z Euro?

I’m hoping for 1-2” and expecting to be disappointed. Best chance we’ve had in years though so we’ll see.

Is there any point in paying attention to the WRF models under the Mesoscale tab on Tropical Tidbits?

Let’s see what the ICON shows next. Nothing is off the table yet.

NWS Springfield - Obviously they didn’t have the 18z data to consider. The next phase of this system will then begin to impact the area late Friday night and Saturday morning. That main upper level trough will eject right over the Missouri Ozarks with low level cold advection rapidly overspreading the area. It should be noted that models and ensembles are still showing a large range of solutions regarding the track and structure of the upper level wave and system as a whole. Thus, confidence is still rather low regarding potential snow and ice amounts. With this being said, current expectations are for a rather quick changeover from rain to snow from northwest to southeast across much of the region from late Friday night into Saturday morning. We could see a one to three hour window of a wintry mix (including freezing rain). Otherwise, we are mainly expecting snow to be the dominant wintry precipitation type before precipitation tapers off Saturday afternoon or early evening. The greatest potential for 2"+ of snow will generally occur north of the I-44 corridor with the best chances near and north of the Highway 54 corridor. A thin glaze of ice will also be possible generally near and north of the I-44 corridor. We will get a better feel for accumulations starting Thursday as this system will finally come onshore tonight.

Hammering NW AR @72. I like it!!!