The Waterboy

Latest from NWS Tulsa Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 839 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018 .DISCUSSION... Latest data continue to suggest the next surge of arctic air will move into northeastern Oklahoma late tonight and spread across remainder of area on Monday. Isentropic upglide over the cold air and some frontogentical forcing will result in a band of snow behind the front developing into far nern OK after 3 am and then gradually spreading southward across much of nern OK and nwrn AR Monday morning. Last several runs of various rapid refresh models suggest accmulations may be a little heavier than earlier expected with some guidance showing as much as 3" totals across far nern OK near the KS border. Temps falling into the low/mid 20s during the day tomorrow will result in bigger impacts on the roads than we normally see with even light snow accumulations. The advisory we issued is for the area we have the most confidence in seeing greater than 1" snow accumulations by tomorrow afternoon and/or the area most likely to see icy roads with slightly lesser amounts. Advisory area may be adjusted in later forecasts.

Bentonville had just enough to cover the roads and the rooftops. It was the true definition of a dusting.

Seems like we can't catch a break. Had a great setup this past weekend with .50 to .75 QPF amounts and all it amounted to was a stupid cold rain. Surely it has to go our way sooner or later. EDIT: Maybe the 18z GFS was an ever-so-slight tick in the right direction. Still not holding my breath.

The intriguing part of the GFS is it has consistently shown these bitter cold temps for the last 9 runs now. It doesn't seem to be wavering. The Jan. 2nd 12z temps in our area have been in the teens to well below zero over those 9 runs. The Canadian has also been cold albeit not near as severe. I'm not suggesting the GFS is correct, just noting that there seems to be a pattern. It's sticking to its guns for now. The million dollar question is if it caves on future runs or holds steady.

12z GFS looks awesome for the weekend. But the Canadian lost the storm. Still plenty of time. EDIT: GFS temps are absolutely insane. At least 24 hours below zero. I can't even imagine.

We really need to cash in next weekend before the pattern flips. If JB is correct we may have a break until Feb then the cold comes back until sometime in March.

Tulsa not throwing in the towel yet. .DISCUSSION... A little bit of everything going on this evening...with exiting thunderstorms across far southeast OK and a wide variety of rain/freezing rain/sleet and snow across much of the remainder of the forecast area. 00Z OUN sounding showed an impressive warm layer from 900-700mb ensuring that much of the precip was falling as sleet this evening (with some freezing rain mixed in) over most of northeast OK. Radar suggests that we`ll see a brief lull in precipitation later this evening before another area of mostly snow associated with the upper low lifts into the region. The last several runs of the HRRR seem to have a reasonable handle on the situation...with the deformation zone setting up across northeast OK into northwest AR/southwest MO later tonight. Highest snow totals look to set up from near Tulsa and points east-northeast (also supported by recent SREF plumes)...with 1-2 inches possible although there could be isolated spots that get 3-4 inches. Lowered PoPs some across southeast OK where the dry slot is working in...and also kept a mention of freezing rain for northeast OK the remainder of the evening hours.

I'm not super impressed with the radar at this point. Big break in the action around OKC with not much back in Texas. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Where are you located?

NWS Tulsa updated the graphic. Looks more realistic now. Fayetteville is 1.2 inches.

Will also be interesting to see how much wet bulbing occurs once precip starts.

Tulsa AFD not biting on the 18z NAM. Would love for them to be wrong. A brief window of wintry precip remains likely late Friday night through early Saturday along the western periphery of the precip shield. Sfc temps will not be overly cold behind this initial frontal passage and precip intensity will be diminishing with time. Also precip type will likely be highly variable with the expectation that sleet or light snow will dominate the longest. Both icing and sleet / snow accumulations are forecast to remain light and any impacts likely confined to elevated road surfaces. The 18z NAM may receive some attention for those hoping for more snow however it remains a large outlier and related SREF trends are not optimistic for such a large forecast adjustment.

Are we throwing in the towel for seeing anything substantial tomorrow night/Saturday morning? Canadian seems to be the only model still giving us any hope.

00z NAM came in a bit colder for what it's worth...

The 12z Canadian also looks very similar. Very positive trend. Models typically don't handle Arctic air masses all that well either.

Loving the name change to GSwizzle! Welcome back. You're either our good luck or kiss of death! We shall see. Either way I'm giving you the credit/blame.

I prefer the GFS being a little bit south of us this far out. If history repeats itself we will no doubt have the NW shift a few hundred miles. Normally when I'm in the bullseye this far out it shifts to an I-44 storm. Temps on the Canadian look meh but a better track. Lets see what the Euro shows shortly. Hopefully it's better then the 00z run. Still plenty of options on the table.

12z GEM looks great @ 240. Snow breaking out from Wichita Falls, TX up through OK into very NW AR and SW MO.

06 GFS was back. Nasty storm for Christmas Eve/Christmas Day. Wow!!!

Definitely more interesting and fun to have something to watch. I think we all can agree that an ice storm isn't what we want especially right at Christmas. Hard to say this far out if the cold air is shallow and stalls out around the Ozark Mountains. The GFS has hinted at that recently with the strong SER We shall see And if I remember correctly, JoMo has stated previously that a -EPO is our most crucial teleconnection for wintry weather. Even with a +NAO.

Joe Bastardi stated in his daily video he believes Dec 23-28 is going to be "very cold" in the Plains and Southern Plaines. GFS doesn't show this as of now. Will be interesting to see if he's correct. Hopefully the retrogression of the trough back to the west comes to fruition. Would be nice to have a cold Christmas this year.

JoMo's been awfully silent as well which probably isn't a good sign. He may still mourning over the collapse of the KC Chiefs. May they rest in peace...

12z GFS = Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr...

That will be fun to look at for a few more hours until the 18z run. Awesome stuff right there!!!!

Steve, I am a novice at best so I read mainly and post very little. No need to clutter up the threads with pointless chatter. But I do have a question if you have time to educate those of us who aren't experts. What exactly are the Day 11+ Analogs? What data are they pulled from? And do you have a feel for how reliable the data is? Thanks in advance for the lesson. I always enjoy your posts. They are informative with the facts and appear to be unbiased. Thanks.