The Waterboy

Is anybody really watching tomorrow night or are we all numb and ready for Spring?

12z GFS and Canadian showing a bit of snow next Tues/Wed. Temps look marginal. Nothing to be excited about but something to watch nonetheless.

I agree with you guys that the Benton County warning was a major head scratcher. Especially for 3-5 inches. Even if that was just for extreme western sections because that didn’t even happen. Very odd for sure. Radar and actual temps at 33-34 should have been a big clue.

Dare I even bother to say the 18z HRRR looks ok for tonight. Maybe a dusting to an inch. Maybe. Probably not. Maybe. Naw, won’t happen. But what if...

Oh man, we’re done. Our only hope to eek out anything is the puny wave in TX that comes in late tonight. Probably won’t amount to much but some mood flakes. We sat at 33-34 all morning during very heavy precip. That sucks. Doinked the game winner off the left upright.

Tulsa just issued a warning for Benton Co for 3-5 inches. Benton-Cherokee-Muskogee-McIntosh- Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Tahlequah, Muskogee, and Checotah 919 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT... * WHAT...Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Snow may be heavy at times late this morning and into the early afternoon. This will occur mainly in the western sections of Benton, Cherokee, Muskogee, and McIntosh counties.

Sigh... Someone remind me again why we put all this effort into this stupid hobby.

HRRR continues to look solid. And nothing like the GFS.

Tulsa going with an advisory (Not a warning) for those of us that were in a watch. Perfect timing MUWX!

If you look at the accumulation by hour a majority of that falls in a 3 hour period between hour 18 to 21 or 21 to 24 (depending on location). No way there’s that much fz rain accretion in 3 hours. Could include sleet I guess. But that seems WAY overdone.

That NAM run was CRAZY!!!

Also ticked SE by 25-50 miles (compared to the 12z run). Similar to the Euro.

Last 3-4 runs of the HRRR are subsequently a bit colder. 18z about to run shortly and it will go out 36 hrs versus the others that only go 18. I like the trends today overall. Some of us need to thread the needle (ala Patrick Mahomes) but I think we’ll all take our chances with that.

Euro coming in slightly SE of 00z run.

Yes. Just issued it at 11:04. .WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Periods of sleet and freezing rain will be possible by Wednesday morning, with a changeover to all snow by late Wednesday afternoon or evening. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. * WHEN...From late tonight through Wednesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, especially where the heaviest freezing rain, sleet and snow develop. The hazardous conditions could impact both the morning and evening commute. Road conditions will deteriorate considerably through the day Wednesday.

Probably waiting until the 12z Euro runs. They’ll issue WSW, Advisories, and maybe Ice Storm Warning by this afternoon.

Still continues to show very little sleet/fz rain at all versus the other models. And it shifted very slightly SE versus 00z run.

This may turn into an ice storm for some of us. Latest NAM has 1/2 inch of fz rain in Bentonville.

For what it’s worth, it appears that the NAM is handling the current temps better than the other models. It’s down to 41 in Bentonville (NAM forecast is 42. HRRR is 44. Maybe it isn’t that big of a deal though.

GFS continues to be the warmest of all models. Question is, should we ignore it or is it onto something?

If you extrapolate that NE a few frames it looks like a solid hit for Tulsa, Joplin, and Bentonville.

It looks that way. Very frustrating. This one looked promising since 3-4 days out the trend was SE of us which is exactly what we want. Then it shifts too freakin far. I’m not giving up yet but it ain’t looking good.

Looks like it’s NW and warmer.

12 Canadian shifts NW too. Runs up I-44. Not a good look for us in NWA.

GFS continues to stand its ground with a slightly further SE track. It did jog NW just a tad. As JoMo mentioned above the positive tilt will cause a sharp gradient. Looks like some of us are going to get hosed.