The Waterboy

If you look at the accumulation by hour a majority of that falls in a 3 hour period between hour 18 to 21 or 21 to 24 (depending on location). No way there’s that much fz rain accretion in 3 hours. Could include sleet I guess. But that seems WAY overdone.

That NAM run was CRAZY!!!

Also ticked SE by 25-50 miles (compared to the 12z run). Similar to the Euro.

Last 3-4 runs of the HRRR are subsequently a bit colder. 18z about to run shortly and it will go out 36 hrs versus the others that only go 18. I like the trends today overall. Some of us need to thread the needle (ala Patrick Mahomes) but I think we’ll all take our chances with that.

Euro coming in slightly SE of 00z run.

Yes. Just issued it at 11:04. .WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Periods of sleet and freezing rain will be possible by Wednesday morning, with a changeover to all snow by late Wednesday afternoon or evening. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. * WHEN...From late tonight through Wednesday evening. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible, especially where the heaviest freezing rain, sleet and snow develop. The hazardous conditions could impact both the morning and evening commute. Road conditions will deteriorate considerably through the day Wednesday.

Probably waiting until the 12z Euro runs. They’ll issue WSW, Advisories, and maybe Ice Storm Warning by this afternoon.

Still continues to show very little sleet/fz rain at all versus the other models. And it shifted very slightly SE versus 00z run.

This may turn into an ice storm for some of us. Latest NAM has 1/2 inch of fz rain in Bentonville.

For what it’s worth, it appears that the NAM is handling the current temps better than the other models. It’s down to 41 in Bentonville (NAM forecast is 42. HRRR is 44. Maybe it isn’t that big of a deal though.

GFS continues to be the warmest of all models. Question is, should we ignore it or is it onto something?

If you extrapolate that NE a few frames it looks like a solid hit for Tulsa, Joplin, and Bentonville.

It looks that way. Very frustrating. This one looked promising since 3-4 days out the trend was SE of us which is exactly what we want. Then it shifts too freakin far. I’m not giving up yet but it ain’t looking good.

Looks like it’s NW and warmer.

12 Canadian shifts NW too. Runs up I-44. Not a good look for us in NWA.

GFS continues to stand its ground with a slightly further SE track. It did jog NW just a tad. As JoMo mentioned above the positive tilt will cause a sharp gradient. Looks like some of us are going to get hosed.

Any idea why there’s that much difference between the 3km and 12km?

Congrats!!!!

What happened on that NAM run???

Looks to me like the Euro takes a similar track as the the other models but Euro temps from hour 66 to 84 are roughly 5-8 degrees warmer than all the other models.

Euro shifted SE a bit. Nice hit for OKC to Tulsa to Joplin.

Canadian is very similar to the NAM. Will be interesting to see what the Euro does since it’s by far the most NW.

I keep telling my wife this is our best chance in the last few years. I like that the GFS is still SE of us. Gives us time for the NW shift that normally screws most of us. if this one falls apart I’m mentally preparing for Spring and allergy season. Edit: 06 Euro is too far NW for some of us.

12z Euro looks nice from Lawton to OKC to Tulsa to Joplin. Right up I-44. Too far NW for those of us in NWAR. Temps are 3-4 degrees too warm (of course)

Here’s a sobering comment in Tulsa’s overnight discussion. Wettest month in 71 years and still no snow. DISCUSSION... A mainly dry stretch of weather is anticipated through the forecast period, which is a welcome relief in many places that have seen their wettest January in decades. Tulsa will end January as the 4th wettest on record, and the wettest since 1949.