Powerball

Just curious, why is this in the complaint thread?

SPC Day 2 Outlook https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma Sunday evening. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible with these storms. A couple of strong storms also are possible across west Texas and the southern Florida Peninsula. ...OK/TX... Westerly low-amplitude flow across the western half of the CONUS will amplify as a midlevel shortwave trough develops east/southeast to the Upper MS Valley vicinity. A second midlevel trough will pivot eastward across the southwestern states as well. A weak shortwave impulse will eject eastward across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains during the late afternoon/evening ahead of the western trough. This lead impulse will provide increasing ascent across western TX into OK by late afternoon/early evening. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to shift east/southeast across the central Plains and into northern OK during the afternoon/evening. This front will stall across northwest OK as a weak surface low is forecast to develop over eastern NM/western TX. A dryline also will exist from near the TX Panhandle/western OK border into southwest TX around 00z. Increasing southerly low-level flow will result in modest moisture return to the east of the dryline/south of the cold front, with dewpoints generally reaching into the mid 50s F to possibly near 60 F. While boundary-layer moisture will be modest, steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing midlevel moisture will support MLCAPE as high as 1500 J/kg. A weak capping inversion may preclude convective initiation until after 00z when a 35-45 kt low level jet is expected to increase and strong ascent arrives with the shortwave impulse. Once storms develop, vertically veering wind profiles with 35+ kt effective bulk shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs will support supercells capable of large hail. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry sub-cloud layer air also will support strong, locally damaging gusts. The severe threat should diminish/become more conditional with southward extent given weaker forcing and potentially stronger capping. However, should convection develop southward along the dryline across parts of west TX, sporadic strong gusts and hail could accompany this activity for a few hours during the late afternoon/early evening. SPC Day 3 Outlook: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html SPC AC 020734 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of severe thunderstorm potential will exist Monday across central/eastern Texas, and spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A neutral to positively tilted upper trough will quickly eject east from the southwest U.S. to the Ozarks/east Texas on Monday. A large warm sector ahead of the trough will result in a broad area of severe potential from central/eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. A surface low over northern IL will dissipate as it shifts east across the Midwest, leaving a nearly stationary cold front extending from the mid-MS Valley into central OK and western TX. As the western trough shifts east, a weak surface low is forecast to develop over western TX and track east in the vicinity of north TX or southern OK. Low-level southerly flow will transport mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints northward into central and eastern TX and low to mid 60s as far north as the Red River Valley. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a dryline, and also in the warm advection regime in the vicinity of the quasi-stationary cold front across central/southern OK. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing quickly with height, will support initial supercells across the warm sector from central into eastern TX. Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible with this activity through the afternoon/evening hours. As the low-level jet increases during the evening, upscale development into an eastward-advancing MCS is possible across the Sabine Valley vicinity. During the evening and overnight hours, the southwesterly low-level jet will increase and spread east across LA and the lower MS Valley into western AL. A warm front extending from the ArkLaTex vicinity to southern MS/AL during the evening will lift northward through the overnight hours to roughly central MS/AL, and will demarcate the northern extent of at least mid-60s surface dewpoints. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with any MCS/QLCS that develops across TX/LA and shifts eastward overnight, as well as with any semi-discrete convection that may develop. Forecast hodographs across the region will be quite large given the strength of low-level flow, and instability will be more than sufficient to support a risk for damaging gusts a few tornadoes. ..Leitman.. 04/02/2022 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1123Z (6:23AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Even if the strong/severe storms don't hit DFW directly, there seems to be good model consensus that a thunderstorm complex will develop close enough to DFW's flight paths, which might cause delays merely due to the turbulence while flying through the storm clouds.

Looks good to me!

Those studies do suggest the drying out of the atmosphere is part of the reason, but I also suspect it has to do with the wind currents becoming progressively faster. Systems get shoved off to the east so fast when they blow off the Rockies that it limits the amount of time for atmospheric recovery to support significant severe weather outbreaks, with the window for moisture return being limited the further west you get and updrafts getting sheared apart. That's probably the same reason it's so difficult to get a storm system like the 1978 Blizzatd today.

Jokes aside with the bolded, there has definitely been a steady statistical decrease in the frequency of tornadoes over the past several decades in the current area known of "Tornado Alley," as well as a shift SE in the statistical center of activity. https://earthsky.org/earth/tornado-alley-dixie-climate-change/#:~:text=We found a notable decrease,and Kentucky into southern Indiana. https://theweatherstationexperts.com/is-tornado-alley-shifting-east/

An article yesterday from CNN also acknowledged what has been a shift in the location where tornadoes seem to be occuring more frequently as a late (Dixie Alley), even calling into question whether "Tornado Alley" still lives up to its name... An article on CNN also acknowledged what has been a shift in the location where tornadoes seem to be occuring more frequently as a late (Dixie Alley), even calling to question whether "Tornado Alley" still lives up to its name... https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/31/weather/march-tornado-record-climate/index.html

An intra-hour high of 70°F yesterday saved DFW from breaking its current 70°F+ streak the past 7 days. Should continue at least through Sunday, maybe longer.Also, March ended up right around normal, with a departure of +0.3°F.

I've been to Springdale once and met a few people there through my work. It was a cute, prosperous, bustling little town. It definitely sucks to see this. Hopefully they'll have a smooth and speedy recovery.

It's a whopping 94*F at DFW now. Definitely exceeded my expectations. Also 2 degrees shy of the record high, BTW.

For DFW, it seems December alone was so extremely warm that it helped the entire 2021-2022 winter crack the top 10 warmest list (#10 specifically), even with January only around average and February well below average.

After a high of 86*F today, DFW could see its first 90*F+ day of the year tomorrow. The trees are exploding with leaves & buds too.

A preliminary look at next Tuesday suggests it could be another good setup for severe weather, this time not only in Texas but also further north into OK.

What's standing out with this particular event is how these tornadoes are seemingly taken aim at all of these different population centers. Even DFW had 2 weaker tornadoes confirmed.

Meanwhile, in textbook "Spring in Texas" fashion, there's currently a blizzard ongoing in the Panhandle.

Just to clarify, it was just a few pea to dime sized hail stones mixed in with the rain. Lasted no more than a minute.

Getting hail now

Sick looking shelf cloud, but no sign of a funnel so far.

Addison just activated its sirens.

Starting to get peeks of sun here...

Those storm are pretty far removed from the surface-based instability. For now, they should only pose a hail threat. That said, they seem to be forming off the nose of the LLJ along the prefrontal trough.