Powerball

The severe threat is definitely there. I just disagree that it's great enough for an upgrade to an enhanced risk (as you seem to) for DFW. The better potential will be NW of here, where the activity will occur during or just after peak heating.

To clarify, the reason I say somewhat marginal instability for severe weather is because much of that instability on the sounding you presented is elevated. Even the CAMs indicate a stable layer forming near the surface by the time the storms arrive into DFW (temps only in the low 80s and dewpoints in the low/mid 70s), which will significantly temper downburst potential. Instability and moisture levels are definitely good enough for prolific rain producers and frequent lightning though, which is already pretty well covered in the current outlooks/forecasts.

Not going to happen due to less than ideal timing (late evening hours) and already somewhat marginal instability with an unimpressive dewpoint/temp spread, likely preventing much of that shear from mixing down to the surface. The enhanced risk is mainly for very large hail (2-3"+) with the initial activity.

In all likelihood, this September will end up being the 2nd warmest on record for DFW. Only September 2019 was warmer.

I'm good, as the trade off will be not having to deal with never-ending freezing temps a couple months from now.

One of the shortest and sweetest AFDs I've ever seen. And the previous discussion for reference:

Welp, the 80s that were in the forecast went POOF. But we seem to be finally done with the 100s, lol...

Ending uo getting no more rain more other than the 30s seconds of fat raindrops from earlier yesterday afternoon.

It's finally my turn. Ton of CTG lightning.

In the mean time, DFW made it to 101*F for the 2nd day in a row, another record...

For what little it's worth. Radar/satellite look quite underwhelming thus far...

Just got a bunch of fat raindrops for about 30 seconds. Was enough to dampen the ground and make a few puddles. Fortunately, most of this weak sauce crap percolating seems to missing the airport, so another 100*F high should still be on the table.

Dallas = New LA... https://www.keranews.org/energy-environment/2023-09-22/new-tool-says-dallas-fort-worth-ranks-third-in-the-world-for-transportation-related-greenhouse-gas-emissions

There's a good chance DFW will hit 100*F again today. After today, we'll be 1 day short of tying 1998 for the 3rd most 100*F+ days in a year, and surpass 2000 for the most 100*F+ days in September. EDIT: Depending on the evolution of convection throughout the day, today may be the latest 80*F+ low ever observed in the season as well.

And not to be neglected, new Record Maximum Lows of 79*F were also set at DFW yesterday and today.

This is also th 9th latest occurence on record for DFW.

lol...

DFW has made it to 99*F as of 3pm, tying the daily record high back in 2005.

Oh, and the current record high for today at DFW is 99*F (set in 2005)

FWD has bumped highs to 99F and 98F today and tomorrow, and is even talking about a Heat Advisory (although I don't see it has been issued officially yet). FWIW, will need 1 more 100*F+ day to tie (with 2000) for the most ever in September. DFW is currently tied for 2nd place with 6 days. EDIT: Heat Advisory just dropped for majority of the CWA (eastern edge of counties excluded) through 7pm Sunday...

I see Hoosier's back. Grand Reopening and Grand Reclosing?

And even for the western parts of the subforum, on balance it wasn't a hot Summer. A lot of similarities to 2009 pattern-wise, with most of the heat centered over LA, TX, New Mexico and Arizona.

michsnowfreak came out of hiberbation with guns ablazing...