With respect to the MJO, from a temperature standpoint, Phases 8 climatologically-speaking translates to anomalies near normal across Texas.
And with respect to the dewpoints, IMO, going with a blend of the GFS and the foreign mosels is likely best. You do have a point about the GFS likely being too aggressives with the lower DPs, but I also think there should be some consideration given for the dry soils & strong subsidence on the backside of the trough to help with efficient heating.