Powerball

That is (unironically) a very good analogy, lol...

So multiple things can be true, and your post is also misleading on several points... 1. Yes, Detroit did see its most consecutive number of 95*F+ temps (2) in this stretch since 2011. Yes, it's currently 92*F and the heating cycle for today is technically not over, but as dewpoints begin to pool upward for the remainder of the day after mixing down to the mid/upper 60s ahead of the MCV over Lake Michigan, DTW will likely fall short of 95*F today. 2. Coverage-wise, it is/was certainly the most expansive heatwave since 2012. *HOWEVER* 2. Your claim that it's the warmest stretch since 2011 is debatable at best. Definitely true in terms of overnight lows, but terms of duration for 90*F+ highs (6 days) and warmest daytme high (99*F), that distinction goes to 6/27 - 7/2 in 2012. 3. Relative to the aggressive highs in the model outputs, the forecast highs in the NWS grids as well as the duration of this heatwave that was originally projected (which was at least through the weekend versus ending today), this event was a bust. There's no getting around that.

Flash Flood situation setting up for parts of Chicagoland...

Eh, I just double checked and the cap on the 18z DVN sounding was weak at best. It was really an issue of nebulous forcing if anything. The convergence from the outflow boundary simply wasn't enough to overcome the weak cap for widespread development. It could have easily gone the other way had surface convergence ended up a bit stronger. Now, the 80% probability given for a watch was way too presumptuous (a MD for isolated coverage, which did happen, would have been better), I'll grant that. But the potential was there and their discussion did a good job delving into the backgroud environment that existed. The thing too is, there will be more conditional / low-predictability opportunities like this all throughout the weekend. Above all though, this MD was nowhere near as bad as the Broyles one a while back.

To be fair, there was one severe cell that did go up. I'm pretty sure it hinged upon surface convergence along the outflow / differential heating boundary from the early day MCS in Northern WI / MI being sufficient enough for widespread initiation, and it was close as several other cells did attempt to go up. But hey, it happens. And it just shows how sensitive the potential is in such a moisture-laden / high instability / weakly capped environment.

They apparently got slammed with severe t'storms too afterwards...

https://x.com/i/status/2072348771464155192

Classic ROF setup the next few days for northern parts of the subs, certainly an upside to the center of the ridge ending up flatter and further SE than originally expected...

I very much doubt the extreme highs currently forecasted will variety with the lack of antecedent drought conditions. But *IF* the duration actually ends up on par with what some of the models have hinted at, it would be the most extensive and lengthy heat wave for the sub since 2012. It's unlikely though, especially with the NAO trending negative (backdoor cold fronts). There's a reasonable chance things will break by the weekend...

Even the heavy rainfall that was projected is busting for the MI crew in the most LOLtastic fashion All-around tragic (but, in a good way)...

I'm sure it was in fact him, lol... Heeeyyy Chris!!!

No other place in this sub severe weathers like Cedar Rapids...

What a messy setup. Funny how the setup yesterday was quietly a lot cleaner, despite shear/dynamics being not as impressive...

Nino gonna Nino. I wouldn't say Summer cancel just yet, but if you're hoping for a pattern more accommodating to severe weather and persistent 80s/90s, it might be rough...

Don't hold your breath. In fact, probably more likely to have a 1997-esque (or worse, 2009-esque) Summer than anything with the looming "Super Nino."

Today is definitely one of the most ominous setups I've seen for DFW proper in a long time. Everything's semeingly coming together perfectly for a true (daytime) outbreak, and while the low level wind field could be better, I still tend to think the tornado threat is being a bit understated as is... 0 likes

Still, given how much the map was lit up with warnings, and all the places that were seemingly slammed per radar, I would have expected to see at least a bit more than 5 reports on the SPC page. But I'm sure more (delayed) reports will gradually trickle in throughout the morning.

69 MPH wind gust reported at DTW... Somewhat surprisingly (even for it being nighttime), the MI storm reports are quite sparse for now...

Spoke too soon for the north side...

Definitely about as thread the needle as you can get. Fortunately, the bulk of the activity was just south of the densely populated suburbs in KC... DFW has conditional setups like this all the time during severe weather season, but thus far, its cap of steel remains undefeated.

That Detroit area guy will be disappointed. This setup is giving nighttime QLCS for his area... Tornado thread definitely looks legit back towards WI / IL / IA though...

April can be unpredictable, but with the persistent +NAO / +AO / -PNA, increasing sun angle and the SW getting such an early start to summer due to abnormally dry conditions (positive feedback loop), I wouldn't hold my breath for any wintry surprises this year...

What's impressive about this season is how abruptly "winter" cut off for y'all, kind of simlar to 2009 and 2010 in fact... Not Morch 2012 extreme, but both a top 20 warmest and a top 20 snowless March on record... Looking into the long range, except for maybe some more snow squalls producing some more light dustings or a few more hard freezes/frosts, it's pretty safe to say you all are done until at least November...

As nice of a surprise as it was fot folks in NW Illinois and Southern WI, this was definitely a once-in-a-lifetime blizzard for many areas on Northern MI / WI... Some areas along the noth shore of Lake Michigan are well over 2 feet and might even push 3 feet, virtually all synoptic too...

MKE recorded a 60 MPH gust, and looks like it's already transitioned to snow ahead of schedule.