Looks like our upper trough that will develop into a closed upper low is progressing nicely. That trough is currently located over Illinois dropping S. The shortwave to the W is dropping quickly through the Rockies. There are several surface waves riding along the Gulf Coast as well. I'm seeing signs of frontogenesis over Eastern Tennessee with rising clouds. Locally, some lower clouds are developing over the ridge tops. It is probably another 3 to 4 hours before flurries begin.
It's going to fun to focus on small Mesoscale features that we just won't know until an hour or two prior. I'm beginning to see some ratio output suggesting 23:1 and a few approaching 25:1. Wherever a band sets up near the UL could drop a foot to 16 inches. We'll see.
Surprised to see my point and click suggesting 4 to 8 inches possibly higher. The wind doesn't look like much of an issue until Saturday night. It's also interesting seeing another chance of snow Wednesday afternoon into Thursday in that point and click forecast as well.
Just got back from Asheville. Heavy brine being laid on I-40 in Haywood County. I'm not sure how much good it will do with the very cold temperatures we're expecting as the snow falls tomorrow afternoon into Saturday. The Ice Extravaganza in Maggie Valley has been canceled for Saturday.
17 at the house this morning. So we are going to do this thing? It's been 4 years since more than 5 inches has fallen from one event in my yard. I believe we're going to see some dynamics that the models can't sniff out until a couple of hour out!
GSP mentioned they were considering hoisting a Watch this afternoon, but opted to hold off until the overnight guidance came in. Seems to be a Storm totals concern more than the need a Watch/Warning issue.
Well, it certainly appears we will not be dealing with that old pesky warm nose this time! That said, I expect the discussion to ramp up with the WPC/NWS with the possibility of a Watch hoisted by tomorrow afternoon.
Big weekend event in Maggie Valley with our IceFest. Skiers should be piling into town as Cataloochee increased their base by 25 inches since Sunday morning!
I would expect ratios to be much higher than 10:1 if this plays out as cold as the guidance suggests. That closed off upper low looks to be brutal for the Mountains.