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kazimirkai
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Everything posted by kazimirkai
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I don't personally mind all my snow melting by next week. I'm used to winters where most of the ground is barren most of the time. Ill be disappointed if we don't get another good storm by the 20th though
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Well I'm in the Hudson Valley. A large portion of the snowfall in these forecasts are dependent on a solid band coming through near the first half of the storm that could easily shift south or east, leaving the brunt of the totals on the light to moderate accumulations through Sunday when the temperatures are higher and the snow liquid ratios aren't as favorable, but that's just my area. I'm not too concerned about an overall change in the character of the storm reducing totals for everyone -
GFS cuts down alot on the whole western half of the impact region. For whatever reason I have a bad feeling about this storm under-performing in my area.
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At what point are short range models more important to look at than the GFS and EURO?
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One thing I notice about the nam comparing the models at 48hrs (which includes 3km, rdps etc.) is that compared too all other 18z models and 12z ones that came out earlier, the 12km has the weakest low pressure. Maybe that lends credence to the idea of it being somewhat of an outlier?
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Ohhhh yeah I remember making these in my atmospheric structure class two semesters ago
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What are WAA and CCB?
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I mean I guess you could just look at qpf and temperature throughout the event and estimate
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I'm about 65 miles from the coast in S upstate NY and I seem to be right in where the 10:1 line is. Every time I check the kuchera it tends to be about the same amount with an increase north of me and a decrease south. Of course that probably changes as you go east but that's where the 10:1 line is on the western side of the impact zone
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You know the 12z had a very similar looking feature in southern upstate New York. It seems like both this dry slot along with the heaviest stuff near E Mass shifted about 80 miles eastward while the western extent of snow remained largely the same. Interesting
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Much better handle than the 12z. Maybe the new sounding input influencing?
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Interesting the gfs is stronger at 18z Sunday though. Idk how to interpret what that means for the system. Did the trailing area of low pressure link up better in this run?
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The new Canadian is great for the 10th. Nice to think that's a possibility
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The EPC low did trend south and weaker but the track of the OP was amid the northwest cluster so I wouldn't say it was much of an outlier track-wise. Idk what most members' intensities were so It would've been an anomaly in that respect.
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Lol i'd be fine with zero snow for the rest of winter if the GFS 0z validated
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I mean yeah these are all over the place. Some show a foot of snow in places while others have almost nothing anywhere
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lol I don't think that should be too tough at this point. I stopped hoping for 12-18 2 days ago
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Its at least an interesting event, even if disappointing at the moment.
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How have the ensembles been trending with that one?
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Is that the case with the 6z/18z ensembles? It seems like the gefs has been trending weaker for a few runs now.
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Just another fun map to look at. They're definitely seeing the dreaded Hudson river valley effect. Hopefully I'm far enough west to avoid that but the EPS sees it as a big factor in this storm too
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Interesting how the 12z euro has the same lingering snowfall across SNE after the storm moves through as the 6z gfs. I wonder what will become of that feature
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Ig I was looking at hour 114 on the 12z and comparing. At that point (just off the coast) the storm is at virtually the same latitude but as it moves east it goes farther north on the 12z. The north trend much more evident looking at the snowfall distribution
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Really? It looks like a similar track to me, just weaker and less moisture
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CPC thoughts on the 10th storm
