kazimirkai

Snowfall to date. Looking back at maps from the same date in other years, it seems like there hasn't been a winter this inactive across the country since 2015-2016.

Me being born in 2003 lol. 2013-2014 was the best winter I can recall. Pi day 2017 got me 22 inches and that was the best single storm total I've ever seen. I just wish I had been interested enough in weather back then to fully track it in the days leading up.

Yeah I recall a lot of anticipation for a good storm or two in December last year and I ended up with about 2 inches of slush while the Catskills a few miles north got 2 feet. Major disappointment. That sort of pattern kept on with every good chance last winter: always just on the warm side. At least I wasn't expecting any sort of white Christmas chances this year though, so I needn't brood and can look forward to a hopefully more wintry pattern while I'm home for break.

Wait so what should I be looking at?

According to the cpc/NCEP we're officially in a super el niño. How about that

Severe Weather's new update seems optimistic for what its worth https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-seasonal-snowfall-predictions-increased-snow-depth-latest-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Well here's last years forecast compared to the last years temperature/precipitation anomalies. I don't think many meteorology enthusiasts take the Farmers Almanacs seriously (in my experience).

Well it was roughly the same, high precip spreads a little farther west in the southern portion of the country, drier northern tier, and some of the "50-60% chance of above average temperature" area shifted from the northern plains to the northeast and great lakes region. I was just wondering if anyone knew whether there was some sort of new data they were using to make these changes.

Any thoughts on what caused the cpc to change their temp/precip map the way they did for DJF in the latest update?

I recall not alot of snow but quite a few cold snaps that year. My dad an I made a bunch of ice sculptures by turning on the hose and spraying stuff for days on end till they became fortresses. Honestly, ill take snow or cold. Both are fun to observe and track.

Hi I'm new here, coming from direct weathers Facebook group but I want to get into some more serious depth and discussion. I found this forum last year and been a lurker for a while over the past few weeks before pulling the trigger on making an account. I'm currently a junior at Stony Brook University studying atmospheric and oceanic sciences and am therefore keen on learning things. To start off with I have one question: I understand teleconnections and what they do/mean but I've seen plenty of people mention "forcing" like its something different. Can someone please explain to me what forcing is and how it related to teleconnections?