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kazimirkai

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Everything posted by kazimirkai

  1. kazimirkai
    Not great for Albany. Maybe I'll go skating if it doesn't snow
  2. kazimirkai
    Interesting to see EPS and GEFS trending in opposite directions. GEPS sits pretty happily in the middle
  3. kazimirkai
    Are there ensemble members were not seeing that are weighting it this highly?
  4. kazimirkai
    Still one of the slowest approaches. Doesn't hit me till Sunday evening compared to morning/midday on other models
  5. kazimirkai
    This is getting ridiculous. Isn't the NBM supposed to be the most reasonable model?
  6. kazimirkai
    Just got some of that here in Albany
  7. kazimirkai
    Not Albany and New York yet, interestingly. Guess they're still less certain despite NBM outputs
  8. kazimirkai
    Seems like 12z models are much more confident abt inland snow
  9. kazimirkai
    Didn't they send hurricane hunters out somewhere to take measurements? Or has that not happened yet
  10. kazimirkai
    certainly seems farther north than the gfs with a more eastern weighted shield. Waiting for reggie for comparison
  11. kazimirkai
    Alot of my weather friends from Stony brook and Albany are heading down to AMS this weekend and they're all hoping for ice there to at least see some winter precip out of this huge storm. Pretty tragic situation for them if its all rain
  12. kazimirkai
    The extended GEFS seems to be picking up on this secondary SSW signal with the some winter in early January (mainly around the 4th-12th in today's run). I think there could def be some chances for snow in interior NE and especially mountains before that though (evidenced by snowfall on the 384hr ensemble suite). The central ridge seems to relax more westward following Christmas.
  13. kazimirkai
    Idk bout the two months but the current state would suggest some effects in early January which are reflected in extended gefs guidance
  14. kazimirkai
    I mean the MJO signal isn't progged to project much on to the midlat pattern for the foreseeable future beyond day 21 so I'm a little doubtful of it's predictive relevance in this case.
  15. kazimirkai
    Probably will be a warm one this year but I don't expect that we'll see the worst of it
  16. kazimirkai
    Personally I'd rather it be cold with no snow than warm with no snow. At least the ponds are frozen and I can visit the mountains to get a dose of winter when I need.
  17. kazimirkai
    For anyone curious abt the nbm
  18. kazimirkai
    What's with the discrepancy here? These maps were released 15 minutes apart.
  19. kazimirkai
    lotta spread though
  20. kazimirkai
    AIFS scorecard over operational (blue=improvement). Ryan Torn suggested that systematic under performance at 50mb was because the NWP models it's train on aren't actually very good at simulating the physics of the stratosphere, so it's learning incorrect conclusions and then applying them in full force.
  21. kazimirkai
    I mean yeah, deriving the effect of an SSW is a much more complex problem, but no one's debating whether or not it will occur. That's what I find comical about this post.
  22. kazimirkai
    Lol what's nail-biting about it? Every single ensemble member supports it and about 90% are on board for a full reversal. Seems a bit clickbaity
  23. kazimirkai
    Well it's pretty normal to expect that the MJO wouldn't reach phase 8 in a la-niña situation with base easterlies, but forecasts change. Still tough to say if it'll stay there long but that seems to be the crux of the change in forecasts over the past week or so.
  24. kazimirkai
    I mean this seems pretty reasonable. Was at stony brook for the last four years and we got literally one decent snowstorm during that whole period. I certainly related to this sentiment coming from upstate New York.
  25. kazimirkai
    If you ask me we've already sufficiently met the criteria or an early winter in the east so some relative warmth over the next two or three weeks feels like an appropriate 'balance'. Here's a comparison of seasonal snowfall vs last year at this time. Only the coastal and mid-atlantic areas that have missed out so far.
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