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kazimirkai
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Everything posted by kazimirkai
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I assume non-met people are referring to the fact that its not a real force per say and so call it an effect. It's only perceived from objects on a rotating frame to correct for that fact, like the centrifugal force. I presume it's referred to by atmospheric scientists as a force is because in drawing air parcel force diagrams, it makes it easier to understand the balances at work with pressure gradient, frictional, gravitational forces etc.
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Alot of my snow from the Sunday storm is actually still here after the storm. If only we weren't getting two back to back rain storms in a row smh.
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Seems like a carbon copy of the storm were in rn but with colder air after it
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Do you guys have any hope for the 13th storm?
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10.5 inches wet snow in stone ridge, NY. 4”/hr Band got me round midnight last night but was strongest south of me. Some areas down there got over a foot. Beautiful nonetheless
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Just saw my first flakes in S NY. About 3 hours earlier than anticipated. Not sure what that means -
Catskills about an hour ago
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Is there some page or website that compiles the snowfall forecasts of each weather office in into one map?
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I live about 10 miles southwest of Kingston and at least half of the models have shown 12"+ since about noon yesterday so it seems reasonable for where I am at least to be in the 12-18 shade. Other areas, not so much. Looking at the probabilistic snowfall forecast, there are plenty of spots in the 12-18 region that have a probability less than 50 of getting it which leads me to believe this map is indeed generally overdone.
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Youch not liking this run. Hopefully the short ranges have a better idea
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I mean it doesn't look much like any of the other 0z models, most of which are hi-res, so I'm not putting much weight on it unless I see more support for this type of solution.
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I am. Just joined in November. Trying to learn as much as I can before I start working in the field
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The low moved further west since 18z but weirdly the heavy banding shifted southeast
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I mean its been varied within a range of two inches for my area since the 6z run. Maybe S NY is just easier to forecast for than S NE with this storm? Idk ig I can see where the inconsistency complaints come from in places farther east.
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Which shortrange model usually is right in a snowstorm?
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Does the orientation of the valleys matter? I figured the biggest reduction in snowfall amounts on the Hudson and Connecticut had to do with down-sloping off of the eastern-side ridges. I'm in the roughly east-west oriented Rondout River Valley and models haven't seemed to pick up much of a decreased snowfall outside of simple lower elevation.
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Wow just got back from my hike to find most all of the models outside the euro, rgem, and canadian giving me around 12". Nice sight to see
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I don't personally mind all my snow melting by next week. I'm used to winters where most of the ground is barren most of the time. Ill be disappointed if we don't get another good storm by the 20th though
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Well I'm in the Hudson Valley. A large portion of the snowfall in these forecasts are dependent on a solid band coming through near the first half of the storm that could easily shift south or east, leaving the brunt of the totals on the light to moderate accumulations through Sunday when the temperatures are higher and the snow liquid ratios aren't as favorable, but that's just my area. I'm not too concerned about an overall change in the character of the storm reducing totals for everyone
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GFS cuts down alot on the whole western half of the impact region. For whatever reason I have a bad feeling about this storm under-performing in my area.
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At what point are short range models more important to look at than the GFS and EURO?
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One thing I notice about the nam comparing the models at 48hrs (which includes 3km, rdps etc.) is that compared too all other 18z models and 12z ones that came out earlier, the 12km has the weakest low pressure. Maybe that lends credence to the idea of it being somewhat of an outlier?
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Ohhhh yeah I remember making these in my atmospheric structure class two semesters ago
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What are WAA and CCB?
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I mean I guess you could just look at qpf and temperature throughout the event and estimate
