kazimirkai

I mean that type of pattern just seems like the ordinary climatology for the coastal northeast (ie. only one month out of the three is consistently cold and snowy). Barring some anomalously cold and stormy periods in the little ice age, 1880s, 60s, 90s, late 2000-2010s, it's not historically typical in this part of the world for it to be real cold through the whole winter. At least according to Kocin and Unccelini, the characteristic of sporadic moderate (>4") to heavy (>10") snowstorms punctuated by periods of mild temperatures and dry ground is the norm. This doesn't have all that much to do with this post but I just wanted to point it out cus I'm tired of seeing people dissapointed by "remarkably unwintry" seasons and periods that aren't really all that remarkable considering larger climatologies. There are near 10-year stretches in the late 20s/early 30s, late 40s/early 50s, early 70s where the average annual snowfall across the northeast corridor from DC to Portland was hardly above 25". I've been reading accounts from the revolutionary war of the same "inch of snow transitioning to slush and cold rain" type weather in January that everyone complains about nowadays. This current period is a particularly severe bout, exacerbated by cc, but shouldn't be all that shocking. The NE corridor just isn't rly that cold.

* Ahem* don't mind the record rainfall that Albany and southern NY received the day after this data in this map was valid

Well I think he was implying that it formed as a result of the event rather than necessarily during it. His name is Paul Roundy and has a lot of neat papers on seasonal climatology fyi. I can ask about the details next class if you want, don't fully know myself tbh.

How much are we expecting the NE pac to cool over the next few months? My seasonal/subseasonal prof is saying the NE warm pool is a remnant of the triple dip and wont last much longer

Typically has a cold bias though so the consistency in warm/dry anomalies it's been progging for early season over the past couple days may be worth noting

How can the ENSO cool and La niña composites have completely opposing temperature anomalies in the eastern US? The temperature of the tropics can't have been that different in these two scenarios, why would its effect suddenly reverse?

Do any of you guys have experience/tips with the wxprediction.com subseasonal forecast contest?

Yeah, it's a really great time to be a winter weather fan just entering the industry

Is Saharan dust/dry air not included in this factor list because of its difficulty to forecast long term? It seems like that's been a significant limiting factor for many storms in the past few years, especially in the early season

How do you forecast PNA and NAO so far ahead? Are you just running on analogs?

How can you be sure of the reliable influence of any teleconnection these days if they can just be nullified by some unseen pattern against all prior correlations?

We need a terrestrial theory of everything

I don't understand the value in using a single season as an analog. Wouldn't the entire earth have to be exactly the same for the season to play out in the same way? Why don't these ppl just use an average?

Does anyone know the last time the EC forecasted a cold and snowy winter here? Serious question

If the average annual temperature has been increasing over time, wouldn't you expect warm Septembers and warm winters to correlate (or warm any warm month with warm winters for that matter) during a warming climate? The majority of the cold-september-cold-winter cases are from before 2000 whereas more of the warm-september-warm-winter cases are from after. Would this not just be evidence that years as a whole are getting warmer?

Ask the Russians

Me when the gfs is worse...

Yeah id be surprised if I cracked 4 inches at this point, hoping the northerly downslope is forgiving

The ALY forecast range for my area still says 4-13" lol

Anyone know what model Albany is seeing that would suggest anything like this?? It looks ridiculous

is H5 500 mb heights?

The op was a bust but the ensemble wasn't all that different from the 18z, still plenty of members near the coast, and more confident in a stronger system so its still seeing the phasing. Just shifted a bit east which can still change

Oh dear...

Irritating to even root for this one because I'm going to be at the AMS conference in New Orleans from the 10th to the 13th. I almost hope it doesn't end up being a huge event since that would be miserable to miss.

I'm getting tired of this back and fourth its exhausting. Blizzard or bust pick one and leave me be