kazimirkai

Yeah the most evident trend is definitely an increase in volatility

How to you get it to plot the outputs?

That type of statistical analysis shouldn't be too hard with some basic python code and relevent NCEI data. You could probably even get chatgpt to write everything for you.

Do you think the window of opportunity of pulling snow out of these blocking patterns has slimmed in the last 10 or 20 years because of increasing temperatures? To the point that a favorable late February pattern is less likely to result in a storm than it used to be?

Well i'm back at school in long island and its been nothing but rain and misery for the past week. Par for the course!

Is ZR freezing rain?

Wish me luck... Crossed fingers

Why does anyone even care about how good a winter overall is? Why can't we just hope for a good storm and if it doesn't happen move on to the next chance instead of reflecting on the season all the time? I just don't understand the function of consistently setting bars that must be met to keep the winter at an acceptable level and otherwise "giving up" on it. Its not like a winter season is an ill patient we must keep alive with snow and cold. It's just a happening that we're powerless against so it sort of begets depression and stress in my mind to think about it like something of value that can be lost or gained. I tend to look at the big picture only briefly after a season is over and then move onto the next one so as not to torture myself. Call me a stoic if you want but those are just my thoughts.

What kind of winter pattern shifts and upper-level stuff are being altered by climate change? I know the jet will speed up but I'm unsure how that affects the nature of large winter storms in general. Maybe someone can point me towards some studies on the subject?

I assume non-met people are referring to the fact that its not a real force per say and so call it an effect. It's only perceived from objects on a rotating frame to correct for that fact, like the centrifugal force. I presume it's referred to by atmospheric scientists as a force is because in drawing air parcel force diagrams, it makes it easier to understand the balances at work with pressure gradient, frictional, gravitational forces etc.

Alot of my snow from the Sunday storm is actually still here after the storm. If only we weren't getting two back to back rain storms in a row smh.

Seems like a carbon copy of the storm were in rn but with colder air after it

Do you guys have any hope for the 13th storm?

10.5 inches wet snow in stone ridge, NY. 4”/hr Band got me round midnight last night but was strongest south of me. Some areas down there got over a foot. Beautiful nonetheless

Just saw my first flakes in S NY. About 3 hours earlier than anticipated. Not sure what that means

Catskills about an hour ago

Is there some page or website that compiles the snowfall forecasts of each weather office in into one map?

I live about 10 miles southwest of Kingston and at least half of the models have shown 12"+ since about noon yesterday so it seems reasonable for where I am at least to be in the 12-18 shade. Other areas, not so much. Looking at the probabilistic snowfall forecast, there are plenty of spots in the 12-18 region that have a probability less than 50 of getting it which leads me to believe this map is indeed generally overdone.

Youch not liking this run. Hopefully the short ranges have a better idea

I mean it doesn't look much like any of the other 0z models, most of which are hi-res, so I'm not putting much weight on it unless I see more support for this type of solution.

I am. Just joined in November. Trying to learn as much as I can before I start working in the field

The low moved further west since 18z but weirdly the heavy banding shifted southeast

I mean its been varied within a range of two inches for my area since the 6z run. Maybe S NY is just easier to forecast for than S NE with this storm? Idk ig I can see where the inconsistency complaints come from in places farther east.

Which shortrange model usually is right in a snowstorm?

Does the orientation of the valleys matter? I figured the biggest reduction in snowfall amounts on the Hudson and Connecticut had to do with down-sloping off of the eastern-side ridges. I'm in the roughly east-west oriented Rondout River Valley and models haven't seemed to pick up much of a decreased snowfall outside of simple lower elevation.