Bob Chill

EPS is speeding up the flip to a +PNA/-EPO. Solid by d10-11 in those regions.

[opens weenie rule book] Euro has been consistently too amped in the long range so it will correct south [closes weenie rule book]

What the hell are you talking about? The Euro/EPS is discussed in detail every.single.run. The EPS has actually been the front runner showing the shift back to a colder regime in the east. Enjoy your delusional life.

GFS/GEFS has been terrible with temps in the LR. WAAAY too cold all winter. Don't get me wrong, it looks like we'll turn colder in 8 days or so but unlikely to be as cold as the gfs says.

Yep, we'll prob see numerous versions of what the GFS just spit out. Perfectly fits the lr pattern on the ens. All options on the table of course but if there is a precip event during the d9-12 period it will likely not be all snow but could still be plenty of frozen. Beyond that (and way out there in fantasyland) things could evolve towards a clean snow setup. So far everything remains on track for a return to winter sometime around the 18th.

I'm sure you onky like 1 of these solutions but it's a bit of an eye opener seeing how many members have 2 frozen events between the 18th-24th. Best GEFS run yet for activity. Maybe we get a region wide 2-4" with a layer of sleet and ice on top to build a concrete base and then get a big all snow storm on top of that. That's exactly what P3 is. Lol

Looks like we won't be getting much sleep beginning in about a week. Anyone who's insane like us and stays up for the euro when things are ripe needs to plan accordingly

18z gefs says tune up your ice scraper. I've never seen so many long range snow to ice storms on an ens run. There are some big snows in the mix but the theme of the run is snow to ice or just ice starting around 1/16 but gets really busy from the 19th onward.

Blocking? Dude, I gave up on that a month ago. A -NAO could pop out of nowhere but the AO is likely to stay + imo.

Starting around d9 on both the GEFS and EPS there are a number of mixed precip solutions and it makes sense given the mean h5 look. I know everyone is dying for a clean coastal with perfect conditions (who wouldn't) but that won't come easy from what I'm seeing. We have at least 8 days of shutout to discuss. So far so good imo

Yea, it was definitely a "wintry winter" but ice/mix/mess was far more common that clean snow iirc. I could be wrong cuz that's a loooong time ago.

Yep, but man did we have some luck on our side during those periods. Ridge/trough axis kept lining up. Don't forget 93-94 as that was a very similar pattern with much different results.

I kept seeing the CFS weeklies going in that direction and it made sense that we could *potentially* end up in that type of regime so nice to see it showing inside of 15 days now. I think the -EPO is going to be legit and not a fantasy. How everything else breaks is hard to say. Assuming we do enter a +PNA/-EPO/+NAO regime we should all know what to expect as we have a lot of practice. 2014&15 had a bunch of luck on top of a decent pattern. 93-94 has almost no luck unless you like ice. Cold at times is a lock with a hemispheric pattern like that. Ptype is at the mercy of luck/timing.

EPS says welcome back Jan/Feb 2014 and Feb 2015. EPO starts building d6 and much faster with that feature compared to any recent run.

@psuhoffman EPS is going Feb 2014/15 down the line. lol. I may score a lucky guess with that if it happens. Looks pretty cold d10+. Not just here but the eastern 2/3rds of the conus.

Take a look at the run over run h5 delta on the EPS. Marked improvement building the EPO ridge

Another promising EPS run coming out. Speeds up building the -EPO ridge and is decidedly colder in the east d9+ than the 0z run. Looks like a messy gradient pattern begins around d9 that continues to improve after.

GEPS looks like the GEFS but quicker. Half decent by d10 but this is nice to see. Just like the GEFS but quicker/better. -EPO/-NAO/+PNA and with the trough near Hawaii the STJ may be a player down the line.

We're at least 5-7 days away from any shot at a d5 event so you may want to take a break for a while. The only things that will be discussed here are outside of your range.

Don't waste your time. The fact that the response was meh tells you that you are dealing with an irrational person so trying to be rational is futile. The fact that we're consistently seeing an uptick in activity as we move forward is good. Expecting any type of consensus on a discrete event d10+ is silly.

Is it?

I looped the members. BUSY is a good word. Quite a few mixed/ice events during the period but some legit coastal shellackings in the mix. Best GEFS I've seen d10-15 all winter. Similar to what the EPS is doing. Seeing the legit coastals on the run was nice because they have been few and far between on the GEFS for basically the entire winter.

All in. GEFS is hinting at a transition towards a legit storm look for these parts. This panel is only a couple small adjustments away to put the MA in a good spot for a decent storm. No idea if it's right but between all ens guidance I'm not worried about being stuck in a shutout pattern for too long here.

12z gfs spit out exactly what we were just talking about. lol. As long as we get a foot of it I'm good with ice.

This is what I'm thinking too. Ens are active with cold around but it's not a good/classic setup so mixy/messy is the most likely outcome unless we time something well again. No way to know anything irt timing d10+ of course. All signs are slowly pointing towards a period where we won't be torching and it won't be dry.