Bob Chill

Stoopid south winds at the surface to above 850 leading in is a fatal flaw. It's the reason I've never been in on this one. It's a very depressing event if the gfs is right. Can't buy a winter airmass when it counts this year

These kinds of years teach us a lot about people

Depends on what you're into... Every car from every manufacturer was on the floor(s). Exotics were amazing but not really my thing. Had every classic mustang on display so that was great to walk through. Indoor stunt track rides for my teen son and friends. I looked at 2500 size pickups. My next truck is either a Ram 2500 Cummins diesel or GMC 2500 with the Duramax diesel. Was very very impressed with the GMC. All the big trucks nowadays have luxury interiors and tech. Just need to come up with 70 large... might be a few years... lol

Just got back from the car show in DC. What an amazing event (if you like cars). It was a blast and MUCH more fun than looking at depressing models. Back to being depressed in a couple house I suppose

I've been in MD since 72. I remember A LOT of dry cold. Feb 79 is when I became afflicted. First blizzards will do that to a young kid's mind. Our area always has and always will have really sh!tty multi year periods of low snow and high warmth. Periods of the 80s sucked, same eith the 90s and 2000s and 2010s... It's just how we roll. Increased frequency of big storms actually makes the last 20 years pretty damn good. Plentiful 10"+ storms compared to any previous period since I've been alive. Frustration is engraved in the MA DNA but big storms are more frequent. Cold/dry 70s weather sucked in comparison to warmer/bigger storm times we're in now.

Lol poor Loudon. I'll cherish my .1"

Agree. Writing something off this far away is dumb. These all or none everything perfect setups are getting tiresome though. No wiggle room ever this year. The gfs just repo'd the 36 hour storm to add more salt to our wounds

What a mess. Had this come together....probably a nice wet snow Gfs didn't think 1 whiff was bad enough so it tossed in a quick second one just for fun

I'm not talking about the op as 18z only goes out 90 hrs. Eps goes out to 144

EPS is keeping the streams separate so the solutions with a storm climbing the coast are very compact and warm with no big shield to the nw of the low. I'll post the control run in a minute. It's a good example

It's actually worse than 12z. It's an ugly run

Low location plot looks good but under the hood sucks... lots and lots of rainstorms and half of them are sliders. Not a good run at all imo

PSU's infamous Jan 2011 storm is the high bar

The thing that really sucks about the 18z gfs is that if 72-96 hours of snowfall dropping 1-2' doesn't verify we have to listen to Ji implode daily for weeks.... oh wait, he already does that. We good

Marginal temps. Still .75 qpf

Reminds me of JFM 2014. Not a perfect match in the upper levels but waves running along a pretty strong thermal boundary isn't complicated. Just need "the hose" pointed in the right direction. The gfs solution fits the ens for the period. What's another 10 days of waiting? Easy peezy

Lol. Gfs with the back to back vorts and a 36 hour snowstorm. I won't complain but skeptical would be an understatement

The d11-12 deal on the gfs actually has a legit block. Numerically the NAO would be in the vicinity of -2sd

Don't have enough evidence with the FV3 version yet but the old gfs did school the euro fairly often with handling the northern stream.

Gfs and euro are really far apart with the NS. Gfs is dead set on amplifying and bringing it north.

Kobe news is really digging into me. I loved him as a player. Not even a lakers fan and I'd watch any televised game just to see him play. 13 year old daughter was the second oldest. The other 3 are 17, 3, and 7 months. Just devastating news...

We've already waited 50+. Another 10-15 is a cakewalk

Me too and I've done some crazy S in my life like skydiving, launching cliffs into water or snow, tearing it up on dirtbikes, etc but some some reason I'm terrified of flying in a helicopter. At least in a plane you have a chance. Even with the Capt Sully miracle. They all lived. Helicopters are scary AF

Looking at all guidance as a whole there is growing evidence making the case that next weekend is a phantom irt a big snowstorm (or any decent snow event). I'm not writing it off yet but I've lost most of my interest in it for now. Gut instinct is telling me the cmc/gfs/icon ops are going to lose the big snowy coastal solutions in the near future. It's very complicated so run over run volatility will remain. I've seen this happen a number of times in the past. When ens completely disagree with their ops in the medium range the ops usually cave. Maybe it will break the other way for once. We'll see.

Starting wondering if we're tracking a phantom with the 0z suite last night. 12z points in that direction overall. GFS/CMC ops against their own ensembles and now the euro op joins the no storm party. Time to save the GFS/CMC snow maps from 12z because that may be all she wrote here. lol