Bob Chill

12z gefs laughs at the op next weekend. Don't look unless disappointment is your thing

6-12" followed by 1-2' within a week works for me. Idgaf what happens after that. It could be 70 degrees the rest of Feb and I'd be perfectly happy with the world

9" of snow in Lake Pontchartrain could be a red flag but I'll ignore for now

I just lost interest next weekend. Feb 8th HECS is where it's at now

Ggem is more accurate than the gfs. I know it's hard to accept after YEARS of ggem bashing.

Yea..thought the bob chill storm would be easy snow and it sheared so I figured that would leave room for a big storm to follow and that is now looking sheared. It doesn't want to snow this year I'm guilty of this too so not throwing rocks at glass houses but we all tried to force fit the upcoming setup into a good chance at snowfall when in reality the chances were as slim as any other time this year. The predominant theme of low chances for snow and high chances of disappointment are still firmly in control

Medium range upper level madness this week. What seemed a little simple is now very complicated. I'll wave the white flag and save myself the stress

Look on the bright side. 0z Euro has no qpf next weekend and the cmc lost it too. ICON/GFS vs Euro/CMC. Maybe this is one of those times when a storm appears then lost then comes back and it's yuuuuge

Gefs looks better for the storm that the cmc doesn't have now. Still a minority group showing anything meaninful east of the mountains. It gets really busy beyond that time. Most of the big hits are believable coastals or overrunners and not jacked up weird storms. Would be nice if additional threats pop up to take the sting out of next weekend if it goes the wrong way

I'm started to get the feeling that ops are unable to figure out this shortwave puzzle yet. We had some weird stuff happen in JFM of 2014. Of course it was fun because it kept on snowing but ops were constanty hitting the reset button around d5.

CMC is going to be waaay different than the gfs or icon. It's all northern stream with no southern. Kinda like the 18z euro control run...

Gfs started looking crappier by hr96. If you compare the gfs and cmc with the wed-thurs deep south wave they are far apart and it's not long range. CMC verification scores are better so that means toss the gfs and hug the cmc... unless cmc is worse

18z control is actually a lot different with the northern stream compared to the 12z control. It's d5-6 so it's not like it's way out in lala lands. Check out the 12z control 850s on Friday. Total weak sauce all over the NE. -4s in upstate NY is terrible if we want snow Now look at the 18z. MUCH colder here and the ns shortwave is drawing down more cold on its heels. We'll see what happens with the 0z suite. Seems like we may be focusing on details that may actually be irrelevant. One run is never a trend but it did introduce some doubt on a warm coastal.

It was a good run all things considered. Widened the envelope for snow solutions. Even though we're seeing some consensus with general timing and track now it wouldn't be uncommon for everything to change in a way nobody expected

Some interesting developments of the 18z EPS. Only goes out to 144 but there were a few warning level events on the ground by 18z Friday. Not a lot but 12z didn't have any before Saturday. Looking at member solutions it appears there is now a better chance at the coastal coming up quicker. Some of the solutions didn't look like a coastal so I dug in a little and realized it's too early to write off a northern stream shortwave working instead of a coastal... like the control run...

I still to this day get bummed that I missed 93&96. Especially 96. It was't like I was suffering living in the Rockies but for whatever weird reason big east coast storms are really important to me. It's an affliction that we all share here. Those that don't get it will never get it. Those that are afflicted can never get enough....

Just to clear the air here.... I'm interested in next weekend and it totally fits the dynamically driven snow events that we get from time to time. We don't need any big shifts in track as is and it's slowly becoming unanimous that there will be a coastal next weekend and not a runner/cutter/slider. Can't not like that right? There are obvious glaring issues with the surface and midlevel temps/wind and those features should be carefully analyzed more than the storm itself imo. Might be a few days before we feel more confident in one outcome over the other. Maybe this is "the one" this year or maybe it's another example of how crappy our temps have been for 6 weeks.

One of the most basic key ingredients for a good midatlantic Miller A is a cold feed to fight against the thermal mechanics of a strong gulf low. They are very warm storms to start and continuously wrap in warm moist air as they head north. That's what makes them prolific snowstorms. When looking at surface and 850 temp maps you really want to see northerly flow at both levels all the way until game time and also have a below normal airmass to the north. Doesn't need to be arctic or anything. A basic canadian hp with normal to -5C anoms works fine. So far this event has the opposite. Way above normal to our north, strong SW flow in the mid levels and southeasterly surface winds on approach. These are glaring flags. Yes, we may have the stars align for our yards and yes, I have not punted yet...however...I won't be disappointed with lots of rain because that's the most likely outcome from what we know right now.

Faster would do it. Even with a crappy track so there's no doubt ways to win. Or slower with the departing high would improve things too. Us "low elevation" folks need a small miracle. I'm heading out to boil crows toes, sacrifice chickens, and kick small animals. BRB

I only care about my yard and never root for some interwebs stranger to get dumped on as I watch all my "potential snow" go down the drain. If I don't get a good event then anyone who does is dead to me. Every single weenie feels the same way deep inside and I'm not afraid to admit it publicly

I'm a visual person with analyzing setups. Euro looked no different. Does this honestly look like snow is likely in your yard? Precip is knocking on the door on this panel...

The core problem is even with the 850 temps looking "ok", it's still WAY above normal north us. The technical term is the airmass is a steaming pile of dog doo but since it's early Feb it may work anyway... for some people. East of 95 often struggles with good winter airmasses and miller As. My yard struggles with lame airmasses so my expectations are a messy struggle that prob won't work.

For my yard specifically I'm pessimistic. When's the last miller A poured rain and then CCB'd 5-10" close to the cities?

Seems hard to believe in general but there is a very important key ingredient missing... Zero hp where we need it to fight off the mechanics of wrapping plentiful warm air at the surface and in the mids. Check out the mid level wind barbs north of us on approach. SW flow all the way well up into Canada. How exactly should we expect the mids to stay cold with this setup? Magic? Miller As are usually strong warm storms and we get saved by a bannana high or any hp to our north feed cold and fighting warmth wrapping in. That's missing here and we can't ignore it. It's possible that the antecedent air is good enough. OTOH- the way I see it is it's perfectly reasonable and logical to get rained on with the gfs solution

@psuhoffman yea, gefs looks good too. Not great but good enough. Seeing decent snowfall in TN/KY is great and is a clue that cold is pressing with an active boundary. I'd be thrilled with a sheared wave running up the TN valley. Lots of good history with those events. Many 2-4/3-6 deals have that signature