Bob Chill

@BristowWx that looks pretty legit dude. A little jealous. I got some money mud accumulating. I'll wait until it gets really muddy before posting a pic for the "wow effect"

After way too many years playing this game, one thing I've learned to do is not ask why it went wrong. The possibilities are endless and it doesnt change my muddy wet yard from being muddy and wet. My post mortem usually goes like this "well, that sure sucked a steaming pile of hippo diarrhea. Maybe next time it will be a pretty white fozen pile of hippo diarrhea". And then I crack jokes and do drugs until the next chance. Much more fun that way

Yea, we need wx53's super secret analog system to step in and show NWP and the rest of us who's boss.

Apparently the warm layer is only 27" and not 2700' off the ground. Just another way showing ninas and winter wx hate us

You dont need to ask. Continuous loop started in Feb 2016 and hasnt let up since.

Tuesday isnt rainy enough yet. Give it some time. Once FFWs go up tuesday, incoming thursday.

Sleet rattling the windows now. Yay?!?

When this winter was approaching I literally had zero interest. Ninas dont work well. Its how it is and its fine. Then blocking got going and wouldnt let go so I got sucked in. Which is fine as there is some good history with blocked ninas. Seems to be doing what ninas do best... find ways to nutpunch our area. A fine job I may add. I'm much less interested in wx now so time to crack jokes or go silent. One or the other

A 3"+ sleet storm is pretty kick ass imo. Today is a steaming turd pile version tho

Models nailed it actually but they forgot it was celsius and not fahrenheit.

With everything that's shifted around on guidance the last few days, these solutions are the only ones that surprise me honestly. Mixy messy was totally where my head was at. Straight rain? Didnt really see that coming

Icon shifted in the right direction with a hint of confluence. A few more ticks with lower heights north of us and it would prob snow. I dont buy the drawn out multiple precip waves. More likely to be consolidated imo

Cold air sure isnt far away. Certainly reasonable to believe things can easily shift enough for better outcomes. Hit and run confluence or sneaky high at the right time could make a huge difference. I mean its not like we've seen sig shifts in 24 hours recently... just the wrong direction. Maybe since models are showing crap and doo doo right now things can break the opposite direction and be good..... nah. That's crazy talk

Tracker needs to put a half mile limit on quoted posts. My scrolling finger is broke now. Go nam! Would be relaxing having things breaking and falling

Finally took a look at 12z runs. Lol. Busy af. So glad it's a 3 day weekend. I havent changed my mind from what I was thinking yesterday. Mixy messy for sure. Definitely surprised that tues could be straight rain. Didnt think we'd be that warm... Nothing available to push the boundary eastward. Bummer. Not sold on straight rain. Wouldnt take much to flip to some sort of frozen. No thoughts on the thurs potential. A lot of stuff has to happen first. Hopefully the general idea doesnt fizzle before we get there.

Seeing all the people rooting against ice is the clearest signal ice in on the way

There is nothing easy to forecast over the next 7 days. Very very touchy setup. It will amplify the typical "little things make big differences". I for one am not expecting a clean snowstorm anytime soon. I'm also skeptical of a mostly snowstorm. The primary reason these juicy storms appear to be on the way is strong midlevel flow out of the gulf. It's just pumping and there's not a strong signal for a 50/50, legit confluence, sprawling hp etc. Big snows (if they happen) will be on a knife edge unless we can get something to bully back midlevel warmth from rushing in.

Dude, you run a weather page on facebook and you say it's a lot of effort to click through something other than surface plots? Am I understanding this correctly? Lol

Youtube is stuffed with easy tutorial videos and countless other sources are easily found around the web. All 101 stuff and not super technical. It does takes time and commitment to learning if you are willing. Check out Joe Cioffi's youtube video called "roadmaps to the atmosphere". Excellent explanation of 500mb plots for wx enthusiests. There is no easier time than today to learn about the stuff. The resources available are countless

One of my rules with sw midlevel flow and dicey midlevel temps in general is if models show the mix line pushing north of EZF you can expect nova and dc to mix no matter what they show from there. Same with my yard 75% of the time.

I was just making a general observation and pinning it on Ji because I really do like the guy and a little tough love goes a long way

Maybe you should move away from just clicking the play button on pretty weather movies and take a look at soundings, 850 temps/wind direction, and maybe go straight crazy and consider 700mb panels too. I mean every single answer to every single model question is available on the same site everyone uses. So the question is, does anyone look at anything other than pretty wx movies? I'll go out on a limb and say few do and it's a shame. That's why every storm is a freakout circus. Cuz pretty wx movies dont even scratch the surface of a marginal event. Which is 80% of the events here.

Look at the "highway" height pattern at h5 leading in. Then take a look at midlevel (850) winds. Pumping out of the southwest too. That's what runs the moisture up and mix is part of the solutions (assuming models are right). There will be little if any snow punching deep into the arctic airmass because it's literally a brick of cold dry air. The battle zone is where the action is and the battle zone includes midlevel temp problems. It can def switch to a snowier solution but we need confluence to build (horizontal highways) to our north. That will fight off the warm surge. Anything is possible really. It's very touchy even at close range.

Not time to mess around today but I briefly looked at the icon surface panels at 114-120 and then looked at surface temps. I was in CO in 1994 so didnt experience that wild winter. I remain very very intrigued for the next 7 days. Just wild what's being spit out daily now

Just don't understand the no snow part. It's taking a snow track Honestly, if storms are going to run at us like that on the periphery of arctic air/tpv, you'd have to expect all ptypes. We could just as luckily get a really good snow hit as a mixed event or even plain rain/zr. It's an unusual pattern and it's here to stay for a bit it seems