Bob Chill

Lol agreed. Global models aren't supposed to be analyzed at the microscopic level. I never thought the gfs and euro were that apart when people were calling it 2 different planets yesterday lol. This is how it always works entering the short range. Global models will never be identical beyond 48 hours. The gfs and euro ticked towards a middle ground pretty much like they always do. A gfs/euro blend at 72 hours is a pretty safe take with the vast majority of our events. Euro is a superior model in the mid range but the gfs does pretty good with the northern stream. A blend with a hedge towards the euro is pretty much what I do with every storm. Tomorrow the mesos will be more important than the globals. I know you know this stuff and we probably agree that some mountains were made out of mole hills the last 24 hours.

My yard will be a good barometer for my northern friends. Time spread for the models with my flip to sleet is as early as 1am or as late as 7am (as it stands right now). Onset right around 6pm or so. Range of snow amounts before the flip is 3-7". If I'm awake lol I'll post my snow totals and flip time. My gut guess is 4-5" of snow, 2-3" of sleet, and .25zr. Anything less than 3" of snow would be a bar buster but 3" or more of sleet would make up for it lol

CFS weeks 4,5,&6 are normal to AN precip and a -AO, -NAO, -EPO, +PNA combo straight through lol. This -AO cycle looks like it wants to follow the classic 45 day cycle. All this happens during our best snow climo. Feeling very confident more snow events are coming. Not chances... events... heh

This is a pretty good video tutorial. Since we focus mainly on winter wx, you dont have to master everything. At the very least, memorize levels, temps, and wind direction. All a sounding is is a vertical visualization of the atmosphere from the surface to the jet stream. Winter wx focuses mainly on 500mb or below or roughly 18k' down to the surface. Learn to locate the 0C (freezing line). It runs diagonal and memorize altitude of key levels like 500mb (approx 18k'), 700mb (approx 10k'), and 850mb (approx 5k'). Levels are related to pressure are not static and altitude varies but the approx levels are the most common. Once you get that and the 0C line yaou can track temperature above your head and easily spot the trouble areas and also predict ptype.

GEFS is picking up on the Miller A idea.

Euro AI a tick colder with a bit more snow down here in the south

It's obviously long range but analogs and teles are screaming big storm potential. AO on the relax after a big dive and a solid analog list. Weenie rule that the big ones are sniffed out early and a big +WDI

Woah....

For whatever reason... analogs are stacked with Ninos so the pattern "appears" to be ripe for a more traditional Miller A. It's been 10 years so I guess we're due lol

Much more complicated than that. Ratios use temps in the entire column, lift, omega, and all kinds of details. Snow growth and ratios are affected by many factors other than surface temps

Once you accept it for what it is, it's a blast... literally... lol I loved 2007. It was wild. Never saw sleet pile up like that before and once I accepted the forecast snow was off the table I embraced and enjoyed it. This storm will be an absolute glacier Tuesday morning down here no matter what happens. If you squint, sleet looks just like snow on the ground too hahaha

Other than the last 15 consecutive storms, I can't remember a time when going with the coldest and snowiest model was a mistake. Agree 100% with euro/3k blend @ 12z tomorrow. If the 3k is quicker to jack the mid-levels go with that. If they are the same it's safe to assume the solution is correct. I wish I could trust the gfs with fine details at close range but someone will have to remind me of the last time that worked out lol

3k is a good model for tracking mid levels and ptypes but it's prob too early to heavyweight it. Storm is still in formation stage. 12z run tomorrow is a biggie. It could be nailing it today but the globals (imo) are still the most important data points.

@Buddy1987and other swva peeps. Trend overnight has been modest improvements in the mid levels and more snowfall pushing to even just south of the NC line. Best guess for the the area inside of I81, Rt29, Rt460 and Rt40 is 4-8" of snowfall, 2-3" of sleet, and .25-.50zr. 460 area will do the best and my area around rt40 has more bust potential. I'd like to say I'm safe for 3" of snow with a best case 6" but sleet lines almost always mean business moving north. Luckily the trend has been towards a more cohesive precip field when the getting is good. I liked the 0z&6z euro for our yards. Modest improvements where it counts the most. Global models are getting close to their final consensus solution and changes will prob be small going forwards.

We talked about this at the get together in Rockville. Haven't had a drink since 2017. I thought I would miss it because beers and bourbon were central to my social life and end day of stress relief. Nope, don't miss it at all. I'm the same person without the extra weight, unproductive time, and more money in my wallet lol. Probably the best decision of my 40s. I enjoy going out to bars or wherever with friends just as much and laugh DD'ing on the way home. NA beers have come a long way and actually taste really good too! Haha

Man isn't that the truth. This is pretty much a long track and other than Jan 2016, long tracks have a special way of reminding all of us how hard it is to nail things beyond 48-72 hours. Nearly all bigger storms have complicated synoptics and stream interaction. Models in agreement at 96+ hours doesn't mean nearly as much as it looks like at the time it happens. I never marry a solution or make definitive calls beyond 2-3 days out anymore. Learned that lesson way too many times over the years lol

Yea, I know I'm cooked for the bulk of the precip. If I can get .5qpf as snow I'd be thrilled. Once I flip there is no coming back either. What I really don't want is big ice. It's rural out here and multiple lines down could take far more than a day to get back online. We have plenty of fuel, generator, and propane heater so it won't be brutal but it could be quite disruptive if a half inch of ice acretes. The euro is the only model with big ice and I think a good portion of that is an error. This has the hallmarks of a big sleet storm here. NC piedmont is a different story... Our property has a ton of pines. Some real beauties that have been around far longer than me. I'd hate to see those get wrecked. Would be a little depressing. Praying for a sandstorm lol

Soundings like this give me hope that the snow output in my hood is under done. Not sure how this is anything other than snow

18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this: This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done.

You that visceral reaction you get when you accidentally hard scrape a fork 2-3 inches across a nice dinner plate? I keep getting that reading the storm thread. There's a handful of posters who need to get the fork outta here and stfu.

RGEM is likely too heavy on QPF. 2.5" total in my yard. .9 snow, 1.1 sleet, and .5 zr. I highly doubt that's right but I can't help having some fun with what kind of glacier that would make down this way. Cleaning up would be a disaster but it almost seems worth it for the experience alone.

Agree CAPE. I've been looking close at the soundings on the euro for the last 3 days and the ZR doesn't add up. Even when at thin layer around 700mb is +1 with everything else well below and a surface of 20 degrees, the euro is showing zr. That's a classic (easy) sleet sounding. Imho, the euro is missing and/or undoing the sleet amounts by a lot.

Yea, it basically saved that winter. I know you know this top to bottom but analogs shouldn't be used for back yard level analysis. Back yard busts can happen during a remarkable storm. All storms are unique. The fact that a large east coast storm existed is all that matters. The above list is crazy loaded with east coast storms.

Don't overlook Feb 2006, 2007, and 2017 storms. This analog list is STACKED

Check out this analog list.... heh...