Bob Chill

^ RR in 3...2...1...

Jan 30 - Feb 10 would get 99% of the votes.

If the month ended today, BWI would be -5.4 for the period. JFM last year was -4.5. Looks like a lock that last year gets beat by a pretty hefty margin. I just realized that BWI went -10.5 in Feb. Double digit neg monthly departures are very rare nowadays.

PD1 was the most influential so it takes my vote. 10 years old and blew my mind. Always loved snow but that one was the first hit to a lifetime addiction. Wasn't living here during Jan 96 so as great as it sounds I missed the experience. Jan 2000 will never happen again. Models are far more skilled. That kind of short range reverse bust is off the table. Maybe a small and localized bust is possible but nothing like that. 09-10 was mind blowing but after my years in the Rockies and older age, it can't top the wow factor of pd1

A good friend of mine had a wedding that night in columbia and I was in the wedding. I had to drive him and a crap pile of stuff in my suburban. I picked him up in Rockville at 2pm and it was dumping. Incredible drive on the beltway and 95 was a complete free for all. Cars stuck everywhere. A foot of powder on 95 by 3pm and puking snow. I loved it. My truck plowed right through it but it still took 2 hours. Only about 40 people could make the wedding out of the 150 invited. Being snowed in at a hotel with unlimited food and drink made for a very fun evening. Great time. Eta: just read back through the thread. Already posted the same exact story last year. At least my memory isn't slipping....yet!

Rodney, is DCA mostly widening the gap because lows? The location is at a serious disadvantage for radiational cooling. We had an unusual amount of good radiational cooling nights in Jul-Aug. Sept usually has them every year. The high temp differential in August and Sept was 3.68 and 4.5 respectively but the low temp differential was 7.98 and 8.27. I have no idea if this spread is historically normal. DCA also went through several large expansions in the late 90's and early 2000's. More buildings and more planes certainly doesn't help with temps. No matter which way you shake it, the location is almost perfect to be one of the warmest locales in the area (river, UHI on all sides, elevation). It would be interesting to compare some recent notoriously humid months in the area. Logic would say the gap would narrow.

How does the conus anom map look since Feb 2013? It seems like there was a flip from a warm east since then. The upper mw has been really cool for a while now as well. I don't miss the being in a microwave. It lasted long enough to think it was the "new normal". Nice to see a longer term trend of "evening sh!t out"

4 out of 3 people have problems with fractions

There was a storm? Too long ago. don't remember

I think what made this storm so memorable and intense for me is that one of my best friends was getting married that day. I had to load him and a pile of stuff into my suburban and drive from rockville to columbia @ 2pm. It took 2 hours but was one of the most wild rides of my life. My truck plowed through the snow no problem but 495 and 95N were an obstacle course of stuck cars. Total free for all. One of the best beers I've ever had was at the hotel bar 2 seconds after I got there. Nerves were tweaking but I honestly enjoy driving in big snows. It's pretty fun.

It won't be many more years before i forget Dec 09. Someone will show me a picture and I'll be like "where in Vermont is that?"

I just look on the bright side. We only have 6 years to go in the 10 year cycle.

Rodney, what happens to the data if you exclude Jan? Also, where does this year as a whole place since 1980? TIA!

You're ok and all Ian but right now I hope you drop your phone, ipad, and pc into the reflecting pool

Maybe Ian can use his royalty check to buy a snow making machine on a trailer. I have a good towing truck. I'll start with my yard and you guys can draw cards for who gets it next.

It was posted on 12/1/2013. Makes it easier to find when it becomes relevant.

I might have already posted this in the thread but I've ran this little loop a 100 times or more and it always makes me smile. I have a large version but the file is too big to post.

I think our fate will lie more with the state of the ao/nao vs enso. Even nino's following multi-year ninas don't show alot of promise. Nothing terrible or anything but not exciting either. There is absolutely not reason to think we can't have negative ao/nao biased winter next year but there will prob be little indication of what's going to happen until thanksgiving.

I agree alot with this. Cycles within cycles are predictable to some extent. 2009 was a much colder than normal year in the areas that are seeing extreme warmth (northern plains). It was colder than normal here too. Especially during the summer & winter. It's interesting when you start looking at anomalies for entire years. It's hard to get big annual anoms closer to the coasts. Oceans are big temp equalizers. There a decent argument for a sucky winter next year for alot of reasons. Doubtful that it will be as sucky as this past one though. We got overwhelmed by the anti-block and uncooperative ao. And there is also a decent argument for a cooler than normal year overall in 13-14 with a decent winter. We'll see though. IF we had a cold winter next year it wouldn't shock me at all but it does look like we have to get lucky for that to happen.

This is probably a good thread to post all our favorite weather links. I'm terrible about organizing my own. I almost feel like paying someone to send me an organized bookmark folder with all the good ones. Here's a few I really like: Making composites for analog years: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/getpage.pl Major teleconnection forecasts and historical data: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml One Stop Enso: Nino: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/index.html Nina: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/lanina.html Historical Data: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml MJO ensemble forecast (GFS): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml Aweome climate data site (especially for historical location snowfall): http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/products/data.php Favorite MD radar (great resolution with temp overlay): http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/lwx/flashklwxstatebr.php Favorite Model Links: GFS/NAM/GEFS/RUC/SREF: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=MODEL+GUIDANCE Euro: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 There are 100's of other great links out there. Please share your faves. I need to get my stuff organized and I'm always looking for the best links out there. I'm sure there are many other board members who would like to add to their list as well.

Good work with the stats. I'd be interested how locations removed from urban heat islands stack up with the same stats. Breaking warmth records seems easy in DC nowadays but I wonder if the data is skewed a bit by the heat island effect.

Excellent. No rush of course. Thread won't be going anywhere and I'm looking forward to expanding my brain this year. Winter analysis is getting kinda boring in these parts. lol Bring your camera and don't pull a Dorothy and Oz on us!

Ellinwood and other severe guys, could you provide a little tutorial on what you guys look for irt t-storms and severe? I have a handle on some of the basics but I thought it was pretty cool that you identified today's threat pretty easily in advance. I'm interested in which charts and models you use. Thanks!