Bob Chill

Nah, no need to put effort into things that require no effort. #s speak for themselves up north. Period. And I(we) all know it. We love you as a person but we fookin hate your yard. Gotta take the good with the bad. Lolz Eta: there's another good thing! This storm puts the subforum redistricting movement on hold.

It used to bother me. Now I embrace it. Which is good because I'm very happy for PSU rn. Not always the case

Here we go! CO powder falling. The sweet (and lucky) part of this storm's "edge" is the line isnt a dusting one side and 1" on the other. It's a damn party anywhere east of the edge. Enjoy cuz it's not common

Use imgur or whatever hosting. Uploading here sucks. Fills up your storage and files have to be deleted individually. I haven't been able to upload here for years because there no fookin way I'm deleting 1k files one at a time. With imgur and similar, just upload and paste the link here. It will embed the pic

Not going to have much time to post but we're only a few hours away now from the CCB type snows. Kinda already happening in ppaces but the low has a bunch of latitude to gain yet. I'm a bit west obviously but I'm still expecting some colorado style powder even if brief. Peeps east of 95 may have their best scene in many many years.

It's when snow falls so hard all at once it registers in the Richter scale

Dryslot runs from Atlanta to Ric already. Uh oh...

You should move east near 95. You'd get both wishes on the regular.

Discuss SEVA climo history in another thread. Nobody wants to read that here. Not a single person.

Obviously models are converging on a SE of 95 jack and really nasty cutoff but I swear I've seen this movie 30 times. Maybe the SE does get the qpf/fronto jack... but will that cutoff verify? My gut says 6" from somewhere around HGR eastward. We had some cold Pacman events 2014&15 but the cold dry air eating the NW periphery was legit. Teens and single digits nearby legit. This setup is different. We'll see.

In downtown for this one right? IIRC, you spent time in the WV panhandle last winter?

Part of this is consciousness driven. You have to be nice to mother nature and wx models. I mean genuine too. In the heart. Or she will constantly torture you. You know the HoCo-MoCo deathband? That wasn't a fluke. It was a manifestation from me, @WxUSAF, and everyone in between. Sorta like karma but different. You need to earn snow here. If you hold grudges... umm.... well... don't do that

Wouldn't take much to wet bulb right down to the mid 50s. I wouldn't worry.

Thread would read better if we waited until it wasn't 80 outside.

Use imgur (or whatever hosting) and embed the link. Easiest way and basically unlimited

Looks sweet but a jack stripe east of the fall line looks suspicious to me

Yep, right up until the post storm snow map looks just like our standard climo

I look at the ICON as a side project. Europe undeniably has the most accurate global wx model in the world. Germans like making fancy techy sciency things and got jealous so they built their own. There are 2 versions. The lower res global version is what we see. The high res icon goes out 4 days and covers Europe. It's regarded as pretty accurate and even more accurate than the ECWMF in the short range. But from a global model perspective, it's 4th behind euro/gfs/cmc. It's certainly good enough to be useful but I'd be hesitant to put it #1 with an east coast snow storm in the short range.

They really REALLY need to lift the keyboard foreclosure ban

Good God it's hot outside. I mean like hot for real. I know snow can stick at 36 no prob. Will 56 be a problem tho?

After the way models handled tomorrow's storm in the mid range, it's hard to care about much other than the existence of the shortwave itself. I'll say this, if Friday becomes a short range boom scenario, it could be a clue that the mid atl is on a longer duration heater. The switch does flip here and stay on for more than 10 minutes sometimes. From a macro perspective, the 2013-15 stretch should have sucked here. This winter "should" suck too but wx is fickle AF. It loves to keep you guessing

DC itself could end up with a wide range of outcomes based on tiny distances. You're in the best general area of DC so that's good. Foggy bottom or navy yard weenies may not be stoked bros after the storm is done.

Nowcast for that stuff. Need the wall of yellows to roll right overhead with no light green lulls or worse... holes... If the waa is juicy, we avoid relying on a 6 hour windowor less of "rates" to cover everything. The best accum snow will obviously be during the CCB portion. If your ground is still mostly brown by that time, big snows become hard to impossible. If there's 2-4" of gloppy potatoes on the ground when the CCB sets up... oh boy.... hehe The tricky part is nobody can honestly say they know how the front side breaks and until that's figured out, the cold side amounts are nothing more than wild guesses

Most of the long timers here debunked it through experience. All the doubt and hand wringing leading in then "shock and awe" that it stuck. IME, it usually comes down to the start. We all know the ground won't be frozen at all so how does it still pile up? Gotta get a quick start. Miller A's are good at that because the front side WAA snow usually comes in hot and heavy. It has to, otherwise the Pacman starts eating and never stops. If the front piece comes in in pulses and lulls...that's trouble. I've lost half of a storms qpf to melt/nonstick away too many times. 1"/hr rates at night will stick no problem above freezing. Gotta get the blanket down to maximize the cold side of the storm. March 2013 is a great example of how you get screwed even when qpf is good enough.

Hey Buddy, dealing with this stuff is BRUTAL. There is only 1 thing that makes it become less difficult... and that's passing time. I went through losing my best friend to cancer in 2000 (only 32 years old), my father's demise in 2008-9 mother's in 2017-18 and just recently had to put our beloved dog to rest right after Thanksgiving. This doesn't include all the other people I've lost that weren't at the highest connection level. Death is as normal as life in nature but starkly different when you add in emotions. Thankfully time fixes everything. Even when it seems impossible... Speaking from too much experience I can say losing my father hit me the hardest. That father son thing is priceless and incredible but good God does it hurt when it's over.... I'm sure you're already having your own thoughts of mortality. It's a scary place but temporary. Remember this, your father doesn't want you to be sad AT ALL. Quite the opposite. He wants you to thrive and pick up where he left off. You have a chance to honor him in a way only a son can. Stand strong and do what he wants you to do.