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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    Waaaay too much focus on black and white euro vs gfs. They're both right and wrong and they are both shifting. Don't pit them against each other. Use them both to figure out what's in between.
  2. Bob Chill
    Op is much more reliable than the gefs Problem is they aren't really connected anymore. Same init data but different maths and stuff from there. You can use op/ens comparison. Each has to be looked at in isolation.
  3. Bob Chill
    Feb is such a great month. Sun is lighting up the deep south and baronclinic zone so little storms can hold big precip. The entire pattern coming up has plenty of juice to work with. No doubt there. Good times.
  4. Bob Chill
    We all know there are somewhere between most and everyone here that have already decided its legit.
  5. Bob Chill
    So the surface looks pretty straightforward for the follow up storm right? Then you look here and hit the brakes on everything. When vort panels look like they got hit with buckshot, the future is very very uncertain.
  6. Bob Chill
    Laurel ice weenies are no doubt rooting for another 3 hundredths
  7. Bob Chill
    My weenie hopium just flipped the the gfs losing the mid level warm air vacuum low near the lakes for the follow up wave. Still return flow but no turbocharger
  8. Bob Chill
    If we can pull off a nice draping alignment over top from the front then it's not cold chasing precip... it's precip running into cold. We've had quite a few events like this. The biggest (obvious) challenge is can the front progress fast enough... idk tho, fronts seems to drag behind guidance in this progressive pattern.
  9. Bob Chill
    Doesn't have to be that complicated. Euro lags because the weak slp wave running it. Are we sure that's the correct timing? What if things get strung out an the final wave lags? Front progression or lack thereof when it counts has something to do with a small synoptic feature timing. I can't count the # of times we "thought" we knew how a boundary setup is going to work in the mid range only to get surprised in the short range (72 hours or less)
  10. Bob Chill
    Exactly where we want it. Either that or in the trash. One or the other
  11. Bob Chill
    Best ice events are almost always on the front side of deep cold. More typical is on the retreat. That stuff fizzles from an impact standpoint. Accreting ice when temps and dews are dropping is the way. We don't see it too often but it def happens and when it does it looks like the gfs
  12. Bob Chill
    Gfs has had 4 straight runs and 12z was a very noticeable move. I thought the other guidance was still waffling around and no making progress towards winter wx. I could be waaay wrong. Haven't looked close enough.
  13. Bob Chill
    That little weak low running the gauntlet is a bit too quick and blocks the mids from pressing when we need it. Delay that wave by just 6-12 hours and the front has a much better chance to drape far enough south. The extra synoptic push on the front happens too early. Can't lose sight of the fact that the gfs is kind alone with this trend right now tho...
  14. Bob Chill
    One of the best visuals illustrating how arctic fronts can sometimes work here. Trajectory has really changed into something workable in a few runs. This is right out of the 2013-15 playbook. WAR backs off leading in and the cold dense air forces its way south. Starting off in a bad place with limited time but the door to success is still open.
  15. Bob Chill
    Not quite a foot of ice but an inch would work for some free entertainment
  16. Bob Chill
    Just a weenie but there's a bread and butter way here. Right now the drape is getting sweet but vertically, the cold literally has too much angle. Coldest air at the surface then lags as you go up. There is no reason right now to think its impossible to get the mids to cooperate. Gfs looks close enough for 3-4 days. No room to go backwards tho.
  17. Bob Chill
    Red Boars is better. Wild pigs are mean AF. Hogs? Fat, happy, lazy, and pretty boring to watch. Hmm... hogs making more sense now....
  18. Bob Chill
    Hard to envision enough time as is to get the mass of cold down far enough to do anything with precip mass. However, bend that front and stretch things a little and it could break down into 2 waves. Rain, drape, snow. Need that drape tho. Maybe 12z keeps going
  19. Bob Chill
    Haven't looked close so this could be bad analysis but it looked like both models are keying on a height press/hp pushing down on the top of the front. Wish it didn't have to move so far to make it interesting but cold air pressing downwards is a helluva lot better than pushing from the side
  20. Bob Chill
    Personally, I think its a mistake to ignore how the front evolves in hopes of something more promising in the mid/long range. Thing is, the way that front orients itself and moves determines the "next" event. At the same time part of the front is starting to get that "draped" look instead of a giant hill. That can work here. Sure, not much time blah blah but it's one of our ways and you can't write it off until it's figured out universally
  21. Bob Chill
    Imho... the A list names are embarrassingly horrible. So much so I might be done here with the team. Can't stand Snyder. Can't stand watching a revolving door and black cloud of losing. If I can't stand the name, I think I got forced out without a choice... Eta: my 2 personal faves are Warriors (stoopid Golden state lol) or Pilots. I really like Pilots. Then get a gun slinger QB and go straight to the SB. Eta2: if they were the Pilots they could put an F18 or Stealth on the helmets... did I just drop a mic or something? Eta3: what about the Aviators? That's bad ass too. But nope, Rear Admirals it is. Fitting I suppose
  22. Bob Chill
    Idk man, it's like the Football Team... you keep trying different things and different people and on and on but nothing is going to change until ownership does. I swear there's some quantum mechanics force that surrounds shitbag or just bad owners that continuously causes any and all efforts to turn around to fail. It's the universe telling them to go but they won't listen
  23. Bob Chill
    I'm starting to think he's actually an algorithm troll bot. Never breaks character and his schtick is tired, stale, and ineffective. Exactly as you expect from old troll bots all over the webs in need of an update
  24. Bob Chill
    I don't know why people think Ohio is such a bad place to live... wait a minute... hmm, scratch that. Was thinking of somewhere else. Carry on.
  25. Bob Chill
    The 70s pre-PDI weren't all that great here. Had some really big cold outbreaks but some real stinkers too. Couldn't buy a sledding storm for painfully long stretches (sound familiar lol). Late 70s came and change my life but then the early 80s came... rinse repeat. I can count far more winter adventures as a kid with 1-2" of snow or maybe sleet ice and slush than big dumps and weeks of snow packs. 2" of snow was at least a 2 hour delay and sleddable. I loved them then and love them now. Being picky here is bad math. ROI drops below reasons to participate.
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