Bob Chill

I'll always watch big storm setups from afar but I sure as heck wont take time out of my work day or stay up late to do it. THAT is the crux of my retirement. Lol

Ripping and reading is as easy as microwave popcorn

Big amplified patterns with full latitude thoughs or really "steep hills" in the atmosphere create environments for explosive storms but they are super touchy and tricky. Personally, I always look for more confluent flow. I like seeing a broad trough with heights running more zonal underneath instead of "hilly". This is how we get our good cold storms. For reference only, take a look at this long range gfs panel. See how the trough in the east is broad and kinda flat underneath? See that shortwave to the west undercutting? This is what we (in the MA) want to see in general. Confluent flow keeps cold air plentiful and keeps storms from pulling north and/or west. The more time we spend with a general regime similar to above, the better the odds of a pretty good storm.

I'll make it REALLY simple to understand... Ji's snow mood is 100% predicated on op model runs far beyond their useful range. It has always been and will always be this way. If there isn't a HECS on some random op somewhere waaaay out in time, it's a disaster. Does this make sense? Only if you've known Ji as long as your teenage kids.

Decent setups and snow storms are pretty much exclusive to each other on the balance. If good patterns = snowfall I'd still be digging out from all the wasted ones over the last 10-15 years. The personality of winter wx so far in this "window" has been active and sneaky. I'll only assume that changed after we fail or things start evaporating as leads shorten. Other than that, I'll sit in the duck blind waiting for a low flier.

Yep long range is depressing. Good thing our events have been popping in the mid/short range. Hidden from plain sight and makes Ji go something something

I wasn't being super specific with the analogs as I'm more interested in the entire upcoming 2-3 weeks. Not just the upper air progs on d11. That analog list is loaded with good winter wx in the east in general. That upper air pattern looks beautiful and when setups like this come along, it usually last for a while. If things play out as it looks now, there's going to be multiple threats to track. Seems like it wants to snow here for some reason too. Weird.

Jan 80 & 04 both had decent storms in DC. Overall the list shows at lot of Januaries that had storms or were good periods for storms but didn't come together.

I just realized it's 2 days old? It's the most recent on CPC site... great list tho. Maybe tomorrow's will be weenier

Just let Ma Nature do her thing. There is no doubt a good looking period being advertised. One of the best we've seen in January for a long time. Never any guarantees but at least it looks like a multiple chance window. We usually need those. Oh, and take a nice long look at the analog list and let your imagination have some fun.

It will never get old. NEVER. I (all of us) didn't ask to be born like this so the best thing to do is embrace it. I'm not sure which chromosome is responsible for weenieism but there definitely is one. It's a wiring thing for sure

1/3: 5.5" 1/7: 4.0" Total: 9.5"

Last night confirmed it. We're on our first heater since Feb/Mar 2015. You should invest in getting your shovels tuned up

Or you obsessively dialed 936-1212 morning noon and night and the only thing you looked at in the Washington post was the wx page and comics

The favorite part of my semi-retirement here is not caring about that stuff any more. I've seen enough over the last 15 years. Everything is a repeat to me in many ways so it's much easier to barely look until it's "real". Real is subjective but for me it doesn't exist outside of 3-4 days tops unless it's a big dog. Once a common type of storm makes it into the meso model runs and it looks good enough, that's when my gears shift now. This allowed me to significantly appreciate the 2 events we just had. No stress. No fuss. But both overperformed in their own ways for my yard. What a treat.

Winter wx here is perplexing. I'm starting to no longer care about anything in the Fall. Even enso. I mean sure, mod Nino ftw but for whatever reason, our good winter periods are compressed and busy and they can happen in any year. Odds favor certain years but I've seen enough counter moves over the last 15 years to temper any and all expectations of anything beyond a couple weeks. Eta: important addition to my post... big storm setups are different and they are the holy grail of why we do this. Good setups can be easy to identify weeks or even a month in advance. I'll track TF out of every single one from long range. Beyond that I'm officially in chips fall mode prob forever

My personal guess is a big storm prob won't set up until a few of the legit cold troughs carve thru and create some highways. Maybe an overrunner or moderate event of any kind b4. Me thinks big storm potential is on the relax side of the cold pattern. Just a WAG. No real ideas on anything specific.

I love this link. Use it all the time to corroborate. I was sound asleep during the heaviest and woke up a bit late after wind kicked up. Got a bunch of measurements between 3.8 - 4.3. I'll go with 4". Right in the pocket of all surrounding obs. 9.5" in a week in mid Jan with decent temps is rare AF and I very much appreciate the anomaly.

Now we're talkin

They got sick of reading this thread and called it off. I keep telling people they have to be nice to wx models and mother nature or else but they just don't listen...

When the fighting over digital snow is over, the event will be over and people will be like "ah man! Missed it!"

EPS or GEFS are prob best left undiscussed this close in. I'm not sure if there's any value with a low res ens spread when mesos and ops all look mostly the same. Not saying the maps shouldn't be posted. Just that there really isn't much to be gained from them at this point

It's the fabled "blue ball pattern". Hasn't been seen since the last ice age. Caveman weenies were off the rails last time it happened. They found snowmaps carved into cave walls during a dig

This hobby is the anti-thesis of free time efficiency. That's the core reason I backed off. I was spending a disproportionate amount of time doing something pretty much unproductive. My time has become more valuable than a d5+ storm on an op. I only start doing the analysis thing inside of 72 hours. I barely looked at models yesterday too. I just popped in here from time to time to make sure it was still on the table. Yesterday's model runs don't mean jack squat today anyways

The only thing I really care about is not having to deal with the ragged jagged precip shield and never getting any good lift overhead. The one thing that's keeping my confidence in a couple inches at least is the shortwave isn't dry. It's loaded up with pac moisture streaming from the jet from the pac nw thru the central rockies and into the TN Valley. Often these shortwaves have only moisture from Canada and can't tap anything. Those are tough on the nerves. I may end up in a relative min but I don't think it will be less than 2" (famous last words)