Bob Chill
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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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It's a decent shortwave but not enough lift to maximize. We'll see what happens. Current shield is uniform. Stuff rolling in from WV will be a test
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Interesting radar loop off just off OC. Seems like a meso low. Flow turned east just north of it. Maybe it bombs to 989 before lunch https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DOX-N0B-0-24-100-usa-rad
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Would like to see some yellow speckles start to pop on radar at some point. Better lift happening now but still nothing exciting yet.
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A little compaction but a clean 4" so far. Another inch and lwx bullmap verifies in my yard. Picking back up. Band rollin thru should get me to 4.5" if it lasts an hour
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Just let this one play out and skip models. Upper level stuff is a real time thing. Models are much better at upglide/fronto. When it comes to snowfall from upper level dynamics, there are usually localized areas of surprise. Models rarely nail that. This isn't a strong system but it's drawn out. We'll see how it goes.
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The tail on the next band is south of Manassas. Looks more like a blob than a band now. Not seeing subsidence problems. Once it turns back on it should last a while.... famous last words...
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Pretty lucky to have the waa piece come in at the coldest part of the night then upper level cold stuff during the day. Ratios may end up over 10:1 for both parts.
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Northern tier posting prob gonna light up next couple hours. Lookin good for them for a while
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Uh oh.... sun is breaking out Wife makes stained glass. I love this piece in our picture window. Especially when cloudy lol. Backyard lookin like CO lol
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Bubbling up overhead in Moco. Filling in the gap with the stuff rotating from the west. Everything is breaking right so far. Need the shield to stay intact to hit high end totals. Lulls will compact.
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I need an inch and a half to tie last storm. Seems like a lock to me unless things unwind.
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Somewhere around 3.1" @ 7am. My most optimistic thoughts didn't include that lol
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I'm super curious to how the next few hours play out. Will the shield stay intact with embedded bands of mod snow or will it be pulses with subsidence between bands? You're the eyes for the first pivot bands
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Looks like I66 north should keep going with no shutoff or legit lull. Filling in efficiently.
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Base velocity scan is a good tool for watching the pivot. Pretty clear what's going on to our west. Lull will be minimal north of 66 if any real lull at all. Snow won't be steady later this AM thru PM but a hour or 2 lull prob not happenin for most https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0G-1-24-100-usa-rad
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Band forming from HGR down 81 to OKV. Interested to see how they perform. WAA was a boom. If the upper level stuff is a boom too it will be quite a scene at times today.
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No model had me anywhere near 3" b4 7am. This is sick
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You can see the bands to the NW orienting in a sw-ne alignment. Those should build and pivot.
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Idk. I don't think north of the Potomac stops snowing. South of there prob lull but I'm skeptical of that. Upper level trailer should move lock step with the WAA part. That said, heavy/consistent rates unlikely to continue much longer. Will turn pulsy/bandy in the next few hours
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2.3" minimum already. Wow man. High ratio WAA snow is not something we do well here. Special set of conditions goin on
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I didn't pay attention to details last few days. Did any model hint at a WAA boom before the vort pass? I thought the goods all came on the pivot.
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MoCo snow globe in progress
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1.8" here. Damn dude! Rockville gittin it! 4" should be a lock now for sure unless the ivt fails which is very unlikely at this point.
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Woke up to upgrades, boom model runs, and dumpage. Gotta be an inch out there already. What a time to be alive FOLKS!
