Bob Chill

The ultimate model "inverse can kick" period of all time was JFM 2014. It was uncanny

Clear skies but not happenin down here yet. Milky way looks cool tho lol

The weeklies H5 that Will posted is pretty ideal for small/moderate events. I dont really like big downhill/uphill patterns. Potential for bigger storms is better but lots of waiting and high risk of things not turning the corner in the right spot. The broader trough can be more active and shortwaves can get going much further west with good trajectory for the MA. TN Valley overrunners and things like that. In dec, big amplified stuff can often have temp problems too. Atlantic air moisture draw isnt nearly as friendly as Jan/Feb. Entrenched cold overrunning is easier to produce in Dec

Third event in the last 18 months down here. Kinda pedestrian. Last fall was better hahaha

Took a quick look 10 mins ago and was easy to see with naked eyes. 4 second exposure on this pic so obviously enhanced lol but I could see the red thru the branches with my eyes as well. Thought about running down to the lake for a big horizon pic but man it's windy and cold. Maybe tomorrow.

Getting some faint red down here. You can see it with your eyes but it's faint. Night mode on camera juices it up pretty nicely

As long as it shows lots of digital snow it's a great model.

Fun NAO stat. The last 2 Ninas that had a monthly Nov NAO reading below -1.0 were 95 and 2010. Hard to say if we notch a -1.0 reading this year but off to a good start anyways. Also, the speed and magnitude of the current AO and NAO drops were missed by the gefs D7 progs and they missed by quite a bit. That's unusual as the 7 day forecasts are usually pretty close. We'll see how it goes but early signs continue to point towards the potential for the front side of winter to be pretty blocky

100%. While there was copious cold during the 70s, big storms were mostly absent until 79. Otoh, the 60s mostly rocked. The 80s were solid but things quieted down after the Vet day storm. The 90s struggled and if 95-96 didn't happen then it would have been a lost decade for the most part. 2000-16 was really good for bigger storms but not without a few epic bust storms and some real gut punch seasons. The period after the Jan 2011 storm thru Mar 2013 was God awful but it was just a few years even though it felt like a century lol. Then 13-16 happened... 2017 thru 2024 was been ho hum but is it that uncommon to have a period like that? Not really when you think about it. Last year was a real winter even if it was sub climo snow. You could say last winter was similar to the bulk of the 70s. Our winters are streaky good and bad. Been that way since I was born. A hot streak of bigger storms is coming and based on the last 8 years or so, prob sooner than later. Wx around the world has been more extreme in general and there is no doubt in my mind that a bigger storm than Feb 2010 or Jan 2016 is coming here at some point.

Ha! It was a poor attempt at humor. When we're in the middle of a 55-60 degree stretch in Jan with hopeless D10+ progs, SSW talk enters the chat like clockwork. And it never amounts to much lolol. Imho, some winters just want to work and others don't no matter what. Wasted blocking and random storms in the middle of futile indices are as common as typical/predictable stuff that produces. The early signs of the upcoming winter are promising. I think we can all agree on that. I've suspected we're on the front side of a longer duration blocking cycle for a couple of years now. Get things right in the AO/NAO region for the balance of winter and a ratter is prob off the table. Big winters outside of mod ninos are notoriously hard to predict. 13-14 was pessimistic leading in and we all fondly remember that one. I certainly didn't see it coming in Nov. The early Dec storm was a signal but then it got crazy warm before legit winter set in for 3 straight months. Any event during the first half of Dec is usually a reliable sign of an "acceptable" winter. So far it looks pretty good in general for that this year. Time will tell as always

We need to stop the strat talk STAT! If there's any winter weenie index over the last 10+ years that basically ensures a nasty struggle then epic fail... its the Amwx SSW index. The more posts about it the less chance of anything good happening. There's literally 100s if not 1000s worth of post data backing this up. I mean sure, scientifically a SSW can be a precursor to blocking and cold/snow in the east but the more it gets hyped here, the less chance of it working out. This is a fact. But weenies gotta ween and my yards gotta fail. Thanks man

If by we you mean me... lala lockitup

Unless I'm forgetting something in between, we haven't had a legit lasting HL blocking period with a real -NAO since Jan 2011. We really are due for one

Current CFS Jan h5 is a good visual of what I recently posted irt split flow+blocking during a "Nina". This is a sweet looking prog....

So far it looks like the "nina" is weak sauce so I'm not really expecting classic nina climo dominating door to door. I think other variables like the ao/epo/nao will have more influence on our sensible wx and I wouldn't be surprised if there is split flow at times. Im really liking early ao/nao signs right now. I'm still feeling mediocre about snowfall but that comes with the territory and we're pretty much always northern stream dominant in all enso phases except for ninos. However, get a -2sd ao/nao going and it opens the door for a hybrid storm that passes underneath us. Those can work here but not without anomalous blocking. Its been so long since we've had an extended blocking period that we all expect it to not happen lol but I'm feeling unusually optimistic about it until further notice

Posted this is the wrong thread so I moved it here lol

Fall scenery has been epic down here this year. Ready for snow now lol

Been raining down here since 4pm. Stiff east winds and 48-49 degrees. Would be a nice snowstorm down here and hearbreak up there if it was 2 months later. Maybe winter is showing it's hand early

Peak fall happening down this way. Really good color year. Makes driving around and boating feel like an art exhibit lol

Exactly. The PDO is just a single piece. Just dont want a big -pdo flex. That really hurts. Doesn't look like that is happening... so far.... I wouldn't be surprised if your area is one of the weird jacks this year. Recent history is on your side. I dont expect anything exceptional in my new yard no matter what happens this year lol

Nina climo can be harsh with the MA getting a major or historic storm to run the full gauntlet but it's always possible for an average coastal to make a run up 95 in any enso state. Nina's favor higher totals north of us but it's not a stretch at all to get a 6-10 swipe here with double that from Philly north. Get some legit blocking in place and bigger things can happen like Jan 96 and 11. Far fewer and between for big storms but no sense ruling them out until March

I've become more optimistic for a couple basic reasons. The Wpac/pdo area has improved dramatically in just a month and a half. The nina setup isn't that strong and may not drive the bus in a bad way (SE ridge of doom and stuff like that). Lastly, my personal algorithm and gut instinct likes the chances of a favorable AO/NAO on the balance for DJFM. I'm pretty confident in some decent blocking at times and it probably will include Dec. If/when/how much is way beyond my pay grade. But the Dec AO monthly mean is probably the most reliable long range index there is. Get a Dec AO avg below -1.25 and a dud winter is most likely off the table. PDO is still negative but considering the frog boil that was happening back in early Sept, things have greatly improved. Maybe due to the record cold in Siberia exiting the coast. Not really sure. But this plot doesn't look dire to me anymore. All this said, I'm kinda meh on snowfall totals. My wag is sub climo and that's a pretty easy guess all things considered. Getting a northern stream dominated winter to produce consistently is awful tuff in these parts. Would need some sort of stream phasing at times or a really big block to bring the goods. Both of which are possible... but probable?.... nah lol Gun to head, temps within 2 degrees of avg either way and somewhere around 75% of climo snow with some random iteration of weird jack zones vs typical embedded in the mix. It's still pretty early to marry any ideas. Once Dec comes into focus we can start hallucinating victory or hitting the panic button with more confidence. ETA: the WDI is pretty strong for at least one traditional good coastal storm that puts down a large blanket of warning totals through the MA and NE. We really are due for something like that.

With the 660hr cfs having the same accuracy as 360hr gfs, seems reasonable. Maybe we should be conservative and wait until it's under 500hrs on the cfs and the 384hr gfs extrapolates properly.

I mean if you're good with a 6" paste job in mid Nov then fine. I'm bored of them. Need something anomalous to get my attention. Just few a few years ago in 87 we had a good one though

Idk if it matters either way. We get storms like this all the time in mid Novie and they melt too quick. Boring