Bob Chill

ICON is more of a tn valley overrunner vs a developed storm. Not much of a circulation or developed surface/850 low. AI models are far different in that respect.

I think the second Feb storm in 2010 in my yard was up there too. Mar 2014 had a high ratio one as well iirc. They aren't impossible but expecting over 10:1 based on kuchera progs seems to fall short far more often than not.

Its very uncommon for a decent sized storm to be higher than 10:1 in the MA even when it's cold. There can be periods of high ratio snow most commonly on the backside or an upper level low pass but the front side is usually 10:1 or less. It's humid here and that matters. Getting pristine snow growth for long durations is also hard for multiple reasons. We always get periods of plates and mangled flakes even when it's a clean all snow event. Imo, sticking to the basic 10:1 ratio when the ground and column is cold is the most accurate. Lower when something is flawed. A 15:1 or higher ratio storm is a unicorn in these parts

It's a classic setup for a widespread SE and/or MA winter storm. The snow stripe has potential to cover a lot of real estate. The 18z gfs left the key piece behind and that's still possible but it's also on its own right now. The gfs version would be a weak/sheared storm that could still hit the MA but big totals wouldn't be there. Suppression is a risk for sure and that includes my yard. The stronger the storm the less chance of suppression because it's hard to fight off a stronger storm from gaining latitude. Especially in the SE/MA. Imho, if the shortwave doesn't hang back like the gfs shows, there's going to be a nice event for the TN valley, SE, and MA. It will prob include a decent stripe of sleet and and freezing rain somewhere with the SE being favored. The all snow areas just to the north of the mix will do very well. Could be my yard, could be yours. Impossible to know that right now and not worth dissecting. Only thing we should care about is whether there is a solid cohesive storm coming or a weaker/sheared event. If it's a cohesive classic storm the MA would be all snow. I have a lot more mixing risk but walking that line is often one of the jack zones. I feel pretty optimistic about a fun storm that covers a lot of real estate but until we're inside of 96 hours, can't marry any idea. We could all get zero and NC south getting hit flush.

Definitely. SW and central VA jackpot. Lalalalockitup

Euro AI laughs at the gfs lol

Cpc is pretty solid. Some nice periods in the mix

CFS weeks 5-6 look ideal for Feb snow and cold. Yea it's the CFS and it's way out there but looks like this are friendly for the MA and SE. Gulf connection and horizontal battleground heh. Kitchen sink pattern with all frozen on the table. Maybe a sleet bomb redux lol

Been out of the loop for a bit and just got back from CO last night. Amazing trip even with the epic fail snow year they're having. Snowed when we got there and ski/snowmobile conditions ended up being perfect. Sad to be home lol. Y'all have the upcoming period well covered. We've been thru several periods like this since Jan 2011. Analogs are friendly with Jan 2011, Feb 2014/15, and even Jan 2003 showing up. Potential is there but long lead tracking won't work well imho. Each push of deep mid level cold will present opportunity. Identifying the correct shortwave progression beyond 5/6 days will be challenging like what we saw during the second halves of 14/15. I dont think any of us will get skunked in the next 2-3 weeks and if it all reloads in Feb, climo+ snowfall is pretty likely. That can be worried about after we shovel something lol

Don't worry mitch, the daily weeklies jump around like a meth head on payday and above normal precip will be back right about the same time we lose the cold at day 23. But the good thing is we'll be tracking a legit threat inside of day 7 by then and not GAF about the weeklies anymore until the back edge shows on radar (onset for Ji). Then we can start the neurotic cycle all over again.

Once you see the crazy eyed smiling face blocking pattern you can't unsee it. One of the wildest looking progs I've seen basically ever lol. Break out the Visine and stuff haha

This is probably all you need to see. A massive closed upper level low casually walking across and turning up. Storms like this will be picked up pretty far in advance on current models.

Jokes aside, if there is any month that doesn't require perfection or even "good" to snow, it's Jan. Doesn't look like east ridge hell anywhere on guidance. Just need activity. Jan can be on the dry side compared to Feb/Mar but it can also be active. I never lost optimism in Jan producing and odds seem above avg for a couple events. Luck and chaos will figure it out as usual lol

It's looking like 50/50 odds of a giant storm to me. We either get one or we dont. 50/50. Just like megamillioms, 50/50 every ticket. Dems goodz maphs amirite?

He's still human so we're all alloted some bad days per year and bad days are subjective. For Ji, a reasonable logical post is a red flag bad day

I personally find Ji pretty funny lol. The man has never broken character once in the 20+ years I've been reading his posts. He is a unique character that embodies the sum of every MA weenies neurotic thoughts. He's literally an exponentially amplified algorithm that includes a piece of all of us. Once you see it in that context it becomes quite entertaining but it's a subjective opinion hahaha. We ARE Ji... lolol

Good for you but sucks for me lol. I'm driving to Boulder CO Jan 7-8th. I can't control jack but sorry folks... I gotta root against this one... and then I gotta root against storms thru the 16th until I get back. Sorry folks x2

That's a primary problem. HP is weaker too and it really needs to be 1035+ to stand ground and make things work. 1030 or less will get pushed out of the way. Especially in the mids. 12z run wasn't what you want to see.

Mixed bag and nothing super interesting. Dec 28-31 2008 & Jan 13-18 2000 would be the other closest. Jan 3 22 was a flukey storm and not a common setup. Analogs favor warm overall but the strong block brings in the chance. OTOH, analogs show past history isn't that dire rolling forward into Jan. The only rat showing up is Dec 2012 and it's not a strong correlation. I remain confident there will be winter wx here in Jan.

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

Exactly. All too often there are 2 modes of thinking here... wall to wall good or door to door turd lol. Through history the vast majority of our winters fall in between. A general mix of good periods and blind shitting. Simply guessing an in between winter is the highest odds and the most common outcome. This winter sure feels like an in-betweener to me

I don't follow anyone about long range stuff and usually stick to my own thoughts but wasn't Webb on the cold/blocking train just a few weeks ago? When all guidance was unified in the general idea? Of course it didn't work out and here we are but wouldn't it be the same mistake to jump all in on what lr guidance is unified on now? Long range weather is one fickle beast. If it was easy to predict beyond a couple weeks we could all just be energy traders and retire in a couple years. But it doesn't work like that. Not even close really. I never thought this would be some kind of awesome snowy winter but to marry the idea that it's "mostly over" already is a blunder imho. Analogs are nearly unified that the way out of the current persistence is a cold and/or stormy period in the east. It makes sense to me as the winter see-saw has been part of the personality already and likely to continue (imho only). I personally don't agree that things are dire and a persistent hostile snow pattern is here to stay. If anything, I expect a 2 week period in Jan to be pretty good for chances. Luck and timing hold the cards for production but my money is on real winter returning for a decent period in Jan. Guidance is currently starting to pick up on the idea late in the first week of Jan. I'm starting to expect that trend to continue. Wait and see for now.

Looks like ens are filling in with 2 camps now. The mean shows no major shift with large scale features but under the hood looks more promising. Fairly deep (semi stable?) trough diving down and height rises along the west coast. Could be the first sign of a way out of the current doh! pattern lol. Ops are obviously hinting at the idea with the 6z gfs going straight nuts lol

Pretty simple thoughts based on 2 things that my intuition keeps bringing up. 1) I expected blocking to be on the friendly vs hostile side and 2) we're over due for a decent coastal that gets everyone. Not a giant storm as they are pretty rare. Just a decent coastal that has a pretty uniform 1"+ of qpf and drops 8-12" across all 3 airports. I also don't think this nina is all that strong nor will it influence the winter door to door. Both of my snowfalls had a southern connection to precip already. Northern stream action is the bulk of our snowfalls and storm chances in every enso phase. Jan 2016 came onshore in the pac nw. The main shortwave was northern stream. But it tapped the southern stream when it mattered and went nuts. People get too hung up on northern stream being anti snow. It's only anti snow when the gulf or Southern stream is closed for business. So far this year, gulf moisture tap has been decent. I don't see why that won't continue at times.

The mechanism to build continental cold is alive and well. We don't need cross polar flow or arctic express stuff for snowfall. All we need is Canada to produce high pressure in the lee of the rockies. Where we get into serious trouble is when the trop PV is pushed over on the other side of the pole and Canada is flooded with Pac maritime air. Which has happened multiple times in the last handful of years. Right now the only serious problem is a persistent trough in the PacNW pumping up heights/ridging downstream in the conus. This bottles up cold high pressure to the north and storm track well to our NW. It's a crap pattern for snowfall here but it's also only one roll forward or retro move away from things being conducive for cold and/or snow possibilities becoming less hostile. For the time being it's a sit on your hands period and wait and see. It's not a multi step process to be back in the game. It's really just one step.