Bob Chill

There's been some poor post quality this year. You know this up down but mid/late March snow can 100% happen all the way to the coast. Even in RIC (3/12/2022). It's not common because it requires some specific longwave features to overcome climo. A legit-AO and/or -EPO can 100% deliver an airmass capable of producing. They don't last as long as earlier in the season so windows of op are shorter but a warning level snow is in the deck for all of us.

Upper levels have looked pretty blah on this one since the beginning. I agree with Wes about the overcooked potential and that's why I've been quiet. It's just not adding up for a 6" snowfall anywhere. Weak sauce won't do it with surface temps so I've been leaning towards SnowTV at best and I also don't think it ends up hitting my yard. Central VA thru the DMV is the most likely area to see any snow falling. If I only saw this panel on the GFS I would never think a 6" snowfall would be the outcome. I would think a swath of scattered light precip and not a shield that drops .5+qpf. All that said, models haven't locked into the strength of the shortwave and it definitely bears watching for accum snow for someone. The setup with the HP pressing into the precip is much better than HP running away. With enough lift pushing against a modest shortwave it can maximize potential in narrow stripe.

Thank you for the intro good sir. With great honor I accept my 6" of digital snow and bare ground award on Monday.

First week of April looks money

This may be the most ridiculous thread of the year. Euro AI hits me pretty good. I'm in.

It's been pretty rowdy down here too. Went outside to work for a bit, got blasted by a 2 minute gust, couple branches fell near me, went right back inside. Not enough wind to damage much but plenty of 40mph gusts today. Not a good boating day on the lake I don't think

Under an advisory down here but of the wind variety. It's howling with some random flurries so at least I got some snow. Rain performed well. It poured last night lol. The Miller a/b debate has been going on since I joined Eastern in 06. The truth is that true/clean Miller As and Bs are more rare than something in between. The majority of our coastals are hybrids and have parts of both. Imo, the current storm is not a Miller B screw job at all. There was a solid period of WAA precip AND half decent backside precip. Those are pretty good to the DMV. Screw jobs are either late developers with no WAA precip or having the WAA die off and lull during the transfer then everything after is too late for the MA latitude. The current storm is what you want with a hybrid but the front side was wasted because of temps. That's just the way it goes sometimes. It will happen again

March 2007 (both events) and March 2022 analogs are on the list right now. Pattern seems pretty favorable for the MA considering it's getting pretty late in the season. I'm probably too far south but imo, the DMV probably has another chance or 2 before time runs out. It hasn't been a super productive year but interesting winter wx has been on the table since the start and this season is from from a dud/ratter. The amount of snowcover days down here probably falls in the top 10% of recent history.

I hope the old school MoCo/HoCo band sets up and dumps white asteroids for hours hahaha. Unfortunately I've had to root against this one down here and was never in the game anyway so it was easy. The 3 week glacier really set me back with property development work and I'm behind schedule. Picked up 2 nice excavator jobs for the second half of March so I'm seven days a week on our land until then. Had a real good winter down here this year. I gotta root for warm and dry from here on out so I'll only jump back into wx disco if I'm in legit crosshairs for a late season event. Always pulling for my northern friends. Enjoy the storm!

Low vis mod rain all morning. Just a wonderful cold rain piling up in ditches, potholes, and mud depressions. Y'all jelly don't lie now. Planning doing a jebdrive to knock off a few layers of dirt salt here shortly. I'll take pics

Mammatus cloud sunset. Rare but they happen in the dmv once in a while. Mammatus clouds behind a gnarly thunderstorm are wild but toss a sunset color pallet into it and it's other worldly. Not my pic but what a show here...

Idk. Been a snow magnet this year. Radar looks half decent for continued showers/squalls but highly doubt it will amount to much.

Dumping down here. Legit mod+ snow lol. Roads caved!... or haven't been plowed in 2 weeks.... one or the other.

Ended up with a clean half inch last night.

Official car topper now and temp down to 32. Might pull off something, measurable if another pulse comes through.

Snowing lightly down here. Started around sunset with snow pellets. Slowly transitioning to dendrites. I'm at 33 degrees so it prob won't accumulate unless it picks up quite a bit. Euro says I get 1-2" lol but I think those odds are 1-2% lol

Ukie says don't even write off the pre-PD3 event lol Models breaking persistence too quickly has been a thing for as long as I've played this game. In both directions many times. Since most of our winters kinda stink it feels like that only works against us but persistence is a real thing and toning down warmth in the LR has been happening since early fall lol. It doesn't surprise me at all that guidance has been easing off the warmth part of the pattern. Remember JFM 2014? Day 15 warmth was a staple in guidance. Remember how it went lol? We need a pattern change or it will just keep being dry and cold. Looks pretty locked in that flow will be MUCH more active than its been for many weeks. Back off on the warmth and keep sending shortwaves our way every 3-4 days and we're bound to chaos/luck into something.

It's one for the books down here. I'm still at basically 100% coverage. Many side roads are still a packed glacier. Took my dog up smith mtn fire road yesterday and someone had a snowmobile up there within the last couple days lol. 100% coverage for 12 consecutive days has to be a record or close to a record in these parts. My climo kinda sucks (12"+/-) but I'm at 13"+ with 4 legitimate accum events. This winter gets a minimum grade of A- from me. If PD3 pans out or any other decent accum event it would be an A+ based on how I look at this stuff.

As long as I get the most snow for PD3, I hope the dmv gets demolished ...I'll show myself the door now....

Winter wasn't in the dumpster fire category up to that point but watching BOS get 100" of snow in 3 weeks while we missed....every.single.storm... was awful lol. Shortly after Jeb's epic "Scumstonian" rant our fortunes changed. The VD squall was wild. I got 2.6" in 30 minutes then the bottom fell out on temps. I was grilling in the single digits with howling winds after getting squalled. What a great day and beginning of an epic run. I pulled my Rockville yard totals for 14/15. Dec sucked but JFM more than made up for it. 11/26 .8 01/06 3.8 01/21 2.0 01/26 2.3 02/14 2.6 02/16 3.2 02/18 .2 02/21 8.3 02/26 1.8 03/01 .3 03/05 6.8 03/20 1.5 Total: 33.6

That guy was hilarious. It was a bit of a punch when he disclosed he was sick and shortly after the blizzard of 2016 he stopped posting. I know I'm not alone when I feel some pain thinking about that stuff. This subforum has been pretty legendary. I will always remember the OGs like Ian, Wes, Matt, etc during events. The clever humor was hilarious at times and the analysis was A+. It was much harder back then before we had 50 models running every 15 mins and model output really needed some skills to interpret. I learned an encyclopedia of stuff basically just hanging out and having fun. I still think this place is incredible for both laughs and knowledge but it's different now. Like everything in life and online , it's always evolving and changing. The stretch from 2006-16 was a class of its own. Eastern was great too but chaotic af during events lol.

For fun, the cmc is setting up for some kind of winter event in the east during the window...

Not that I think the gfs is right during the 14-16 period but it's warm/rainy because the initial wave draws up warmth for the follow up. A more consolidated shortwave timed correctly could work out. Way too far away to worry about fine details in op runs but the window has some things going for it to produce. A warm front/waa snow could do something and a decent track after the cold front could be even better. I'm probably too far south either way but there would be little surprise from me if it becomes a legitimate threat for the dmv. It's a typical luck/timing/chaos marginal setup.