Bob Chill

That's a primary problem. HP is weaker too and it really needs to be 1035+ to stand ground and make things work. 1030 or less will get pushed out of the way. Especially in the mids. 12z run wasn't what you want to see.

Mixed bag and nothing super interesting. Dec 28-31 2008 & Jan 13-18 2000 would be the other closest. Jan 3 22 was a flukey storm and not a common setup. Analogs favor warm overall but the strong block brings in the chance. OTOH, analogs show past history isn't that dire rolling forward into Jan. The only rat showing up is Dec 2012 and it's not a strong correlation. I remain confident there will be winter wx here in Jan.

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

Exactly. All too often there are 2 modes of thinking here... wall to wall good or door to door turd lol. Through history the vast majority of our winters fall in between. A general mix of good periods and blind shitting. Simply guessing an in between winter is the highest odds and the most common outcome. This winter sure feels like an in-betweener to me

I don't follow anyone about long range stuff and usually stick to my own thoughts but wasn't Webb on the cold/blocking train just a few weeks ago? When all guidance was unified in the general idea? Of course it didn't work out and here we are but wouldn't it be the same mistake to jump all in on what lr guidance is unified on now? Long range weather is one fickle beast. If it was easy to predict beyond a couple weeks we could all just be energy traders and retire in a couple years. But it doesn't work like that. Not even close really. I never thought this would be some kind of awesome snowy winter but to marry the idea that it's "mostly over" already is a blunder imho. Analogs are nearly unified that the way out of the current persistence is a cold and/or stormy period in the east. It makes sense to me as the winter see-saw has been part of the personality already and likely to continue (imho only). I personally don't agree that things are dire and a persistent hostile snow pattern is here to stay. If anything, I expect a 2 week period in Jan to be pretty good for chances. Luck and timing hold the cards for production but my money is on real winter returning for a decent period in Jan. Guidance is currently starting to pick up on the idea late in the first week of Jan. I'm starting to expect that trend to continue. Wait and see for now.

Looks like ens are filling in with 2 camps now. The mean shows no major shift with large scale features but under the hood looks more promising. Fairly deep (semi stable?) trough diving down and height rises along the west coast. Could be the first sign of a way out of the current doh! pattern lol. Ops are obviously hinting at the idea with the 6z gfs going straight nuts lol

Pretty simple thoughts based on 2 things that my intuition keeps bringing up. 1) I expected blocking to be on the friendly vs hostile side and 2) we're over due for a decent coastal that gets everyone. Not a giant storm as they are pretty rare. Just a decent coastal that has a pretty uniform 1"+ of qpf and drops 8-12" across all 3 airports. I also don't think this nina is all that strong nor will it influence the winter door to door. Both of my snowfalls had a southern connection to precip already. Northern stream action is the bulk of our snowfalls and storm chances in every enso phase. Jan 2016 came onshore in the pac nw. The main shortwave was northern stream. But it tapped the southern stream when it mattered and went nuts. People get too hung up on northern stream being anti snow. It's only anti snow when the gulf or Southern stream is closed for business. So far this year, gulf moisture tap has been decent. I don't see why that won't continue at times.

The mechanism to build continental cold is alive and well. We don't need cross polar flow or arctic express stuff for snowfall. All we need is Canada to produce high pressure in the lee of the rockies. Where we get into serious trouble is when the trop PV is pushed over on the other side of the pole and Canada is flooded with Pac maritime air. Which has happened multiple times in the last handful of years. Right now the only serious problem is a persistent trough in the PacNW pumping up heights/ridging downstream in the conus. This bottles up cold high pressure to the north and storm track well to our NW. It's a crap pattern for snowfall here but it's also only one roll forward or retro move away from things being conducive for cold and/or snow possibilities becoming less hostile. For the time being it's a sit on your hands period and wait and see. It's not a multi step process to be back in the game. It's really just one step.

Analogs have been pretty consistent showing periods leading to cold and/or stormy stretches. Jan 2022, 2009, 2000, 2011 etc. Right now boxing day is showing up lol but I'm pretty sure that's only because of the NAO and not a legit storm threat inside of 2 weeks. I agree about the dagger -pna. The persistence and duration is frustrating but it's not unusual/uncommon and it's also not a sign of extended disaster. The winter see saw in that region happens more often than not and when it flips it can be abrupt. Not the same thing as a zonal pac jet destroying hopes and dreams for months. I was never bullish on snowfall this winter but I continue to expect enough action to keep this winter out of the turd category. A single lucky storm can tip those scales as well. Can't rule that out for a couple months.

Been quietly thinking the same thing. Taking my adult kids to my old stompin grounds in Summit Co, CO Jan 8th-15th. They had an abysmal start this year. I have some friends still living there and they said I used my snow shovel before them lol. They said it's the worst start ever and they've lived there since the mid 90s. Thankfully that's changing quickly.

It happened a lot last year too iirc. It wasn't a high snowfall winter but last winter was certainly more old school flavor than the last 15+ years. 2013-15 was an extreme/unusual pattern. Last year was different in that respect. Intuition has been prodding me last couple years that the decadal or whatever it is blocking cycle was flipping and this year is basically confirming it (for now at least). Doesn't mean every winter will be blocky but it does imply that 8 out of 10 or 10 out of 13 will be blocking friendly based on history. We can worry about that later after the NAO does some magic this year haha

Euro AI is rain to snow. Block and confluence flexing and forcing. I don't have high hopes for anything until the pac trough backs off but to get something to work we need a gnarly block and all models are showing something to that effect.

British Columbia with the mic drop lol

Ops have most definitely led the way picking up on flips at times but it's pretty logical. Beyond 5 days, ops are about as accurate as a single ensemble member. They basically are a single ensemble member. There are times when ops consistently diverge from the mean long range pattern and its the first sign of a change. Works both ways though. Sometimes ops consistently diverge from the mean at long range only to cave in that direction (for better or worse lol). That said, it always grabs my attention when ops keep spitting out a cold pattern in the lr when ensembles are grim. It can be the first sign of a flip that isn't showing on the means. You can take it a step further and sort through individual ensembles and see how big the camp is that agrees with the op and see if that camp starts growing over time. Gives more confidence to the idea. Make sense?

Persistent trough in the goa/pacnw is a bit of a dagger here without real help from the AO. Cold fronts can sweep thru the east but storms will almost certainly track far NW of us. Hopefully it retros and the pna rises within 2 weeks or the blocking hammer drops down. Patience for now....

Down to 13 now. It's been a heck of a winter run since Dec 1st. Nice to know we can still get legit fast starts. Dec has been a punt month for years lately

I don't trust the CFS all that much but it looks good for Feb. -EPO, +PNA, -AO, and a sprinkle of -NAO. Active southern stream/split flow....

19 and still plenty of wind but managed to see 2 meteors in 10 mins. Hopefully wind lays down by 10pm or so. Crystal clear night for watching the geminids

13-14 was the only year in my 25 rockville tracking years where i was honestly seriously tired of it by the end. Last couple march events felt like a chore. And here we are... where I'd trade a kid to experience it again hahahah

VDay 2014 was one of my faves iirc. There was a lull before the ULL pass and it dropped another 3.5" of high ratio/big dendrites on top of a foot or so. It was already a snowy winter but we hadn't had a big storm up until that point.

I'm so down with a Roanoke/Richmond > DC/Baltimore shellack and Philly fringe/NYC bust storm.

NAO is typically more volatile than the AO so it's usually the other way around. It's actually not all that common for the GEFS to mess up the AO in the D7 range like it has. Why it's been happening is well over my paygrade lol but something is causing it. Maybe strat stuff. Hard to say. I find it pretty interesting though The AO affects storm track and jet patterns across the continent so it's an important index for storm track. NAO is a key ingredient to a big/slow moving storm so for us in the MA, it's important. Up in the NE a big -NAO is often a net negative. Snowfall correlation in the MA is more closely tied to the AO vs NAO. We're due for a neg ao/nao combo and big storm. 2016 is the last classic mauling. Going 10 years without one isn't very common. Let's collectively will one our way and have it exit south of NYC for old times sake hahaha

AO is my #1 thing to track and NAO is #2. No matter what the pna is doing, a -AO keeps the door open for snow chances 90% of the time and a +AO is the opposite of that. Quite the AO spike going on and it was missed completely by the gefs. It's no coincidence that my 2 snowfalls this year coincide with the -AO. Being south of my old yard means less wiggle room so it's logical for me to live and die by the AO more than you lol. Right now lr ens spread is split with a return to a neg AO d10-15. Interestingly, the nao is prog'd to go negative in the mid/lr and thats prob what is keeping the door open for CAD events. Storm track looks unfriendly but cold getting boxed in can still work even if imperfect. If we can get a neg AO/NAO combo going before the end of the month we could be right back in good times.

Great pics northern peeps! Nothing down here obviously but wanted to strongly recommend spending some time tonight skywatching for the Geminids. Saw 7 last night in like 5 minutes. Red, white, and blue colors. We were looking SE around 1030pm. Moon was still down so great dark sky conditions. Last night and tonight are the peak.

Prob a good guess. Same thoughts here. The only real way to overcome a GoA or PacNW trough is -nao and some sort of 50/50 if you want a classic storm track. Enough signs of CAD to not write off the next 2 weeks but it looks fairly hostile. Those deets can get sorted at shorter ranges. I'd sure like to see the AO do another steep drop. Models haven't been doing well in that dept. Even 7 day progs have been slow to catch those moves recently. Maybe another is in the cards before month end. Patience is always needed at times every winter in these parts.