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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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Yea, the pump back operation is pretty interesting. Our property at Leesville lake is near the head of the lake so it's pretty cool when they let it loose. I've kayaked the "surge" from the visitor center to our ramp area. Its not rough or whitewater or anything like that but you move down stream pretty quick lol. The double lake pump back operation is 1 of only 2 in the world. They release during peak demand and pump back during low demand when rates are lower. Free money glitch for the power company lol. Leesville lake can go up and down as much as 10' a day. I've been fishing from shore during big releases and you get chased uphill haha. Leesville is 3.5k acres and smith is over 20k. A full 10' pump back can only raise Smith 1' though so they can't balance the levels in that direction. Smith has an annual draw down in the fall/winter after peak boating season but it's usually short lived. Like a few weeks. We haven't had full pool since last summer and having it so low during peak season is tickin' a lot of people off. No quick fix this time. It's going to take a lot of rain to get back to full pool. Record low is 788.30 looking at the levels data but it happened in 1977 and not 1968 like the news said. I should call and correct them haha
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Smith mtn lake is over 5' below full pool. Many ramps including the one in my hood are unusable. Many boats on lifts cannot touch the water. It's apparently the lowest the lake has been since 1968 which was just a few years after it filled up for the first time. Lake levels are generally quite stable and typically don't fluctuate more than a foot or 2 throughout the year. The recent rain helped knocked the dust down but I'm starting to think it's going to take a tropical event to reset this drought with any efficiency. Thankfully the well on our property on the other side of the mountain has no competition from neighboring landowners.
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Fun day. Had our 3rd tstorm of the day roll thru a few mins ago and another on its heels. Nothing close to severe but they've all been noisy. Popcorn boomers
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Imo, cansips is prob a best case scenario. -EPO door to door and no deep GOA trough. I don't think the classic nino height pattern will be friendly like it has in the past. Oceans are warm and the pac jet is more problematic. We've needed amplified flow and the majority of our snows over the last 10+ years happened with a -EPO. "Regular" cold has been delivering near misses way too often and ninos aren't known for anomalous cold in the east. Waaaay too early to worry about details of course but personally I'm not that excited about a nino. The only thing that will make me optimistic over the summer (assuming a nino actually happens lol) is a legit +PDO forming. If a nino locks in and the npac sstas are all jacked up, I'll be pretty pessimistic
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Bob Chill replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Second tstorm of the day for my yard. Nothing severe but some good gusts with the first one. One right now is pretty noisy but looks like the severe stuff will stay to my NW. Enjoying the booms and rumbles either way- 328 replies
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It's time to grade Winter 2025-26(now that it's actually over)
Bob Chill replied to CAPE's topic in Mid Atlantic
Easy A- grade here Climo is lower in my hood but over 14" is climo+ and having a 2 week period of complete snowcrete cover is quite rare. Accum snow in each month DJFM + plenty of cold temps made it a door to door winter appeal. Again, pretty rare. Had snow on snow during the snowcrete stretch and that's always a nice bonus in any winter. Only reason I can't go A is I couldn't manage a 4"+ single storm. There's plenty of history down this way with bigger storms in the 6-18" range. Just missed that on the Carolina big storm as areas just 30 miles to my south picked up 6" or more. Had that event produced (I got 2.5"), it would have been an easy A grade. A+ (imho) requires a double digit snow even along with all the other important factors -
When I lived in CO ski country I used to go through that same weird transition. The month of May is the single worst time to visit or live in ski country. We called it mud season. Everything soggy, rivers too high to fish, lakes still frozen, and too much leftover snowpack for back country hiking/biking. It really sucked. After my first season I learned and would take the whole month off and travel to see friends in the east. Then my summer job would start memorial day weekend. Deep creek is totally similar. I recommend traveling and partying heavily until the lake season kicks in hahaha
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Even for March standards this is pretty wild lol. Down to 43 now. 20+ degrees in an hour feels like a time warp haha. Im starting to think I have a chance at some snow before the precip exits. Shield is pretty big in the cold sector. Last week it started snowing at 37 degrees. Accums seem much less likely (near 0% lol) this time but seeing snow fall again within 24 hours of sweat and t-shirts is comical
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Went from 65 to 48 in a blink. Wx has been a little bipolar last week or so lol.
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Under a warning for the squall line moving through but it's not severe. Just heavy rain and some typical gusts. No lightning either. 3 warnings in one day lol but none verified in my yard. Which is completely fine with me. I have enough work to do without adding to it
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Line is still to my west but front running rain has broken out and it's bringing wind down with it. Has to be gusting low 40s. You can hear the roar in the distance before the gusts roll through. Still out of the south but Roanoke has switched to westerly and gusting high 30s. This is better than both of the 2 lines that moved through earlier.
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Wow. This hits. RIP wx brother.
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Winds kicking up down here pretty good now with gusts in the low 30s. Wind advisory may verify with fropa in a few hours even if storms aren't organized.
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Second line was pretty garden variety. First one had some gusts in the 40s albeit brief. Second one was just heavy rain and a couple good rumbles. So far radar to ground truth has been more bark than bite. Looks like I lull until squall line/fropa.
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Second warned line moving through in a few. Brief rotation down by Martinsville but my area looks like straight line stuff at worst.
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I'm rooting for EF3s that very gently disassemble things and then gently reassemble them somewhere else.
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It's pretty nasty buy but not anything crazy. Biggest gusts during torrential rain and some decent CG. Power is still on lol
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Tomorrow has the feel of an overperformer and I hope I'm wrong heh... Wind advisory hoisted for my yard tomorrow for gusts to 50mph so any severe that develops in that environment is going to push stuff around and over lol. Chainsaws will be getting a workout me thinks.
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12/2: T .003" zr and 5-6 sleet pellets 12/5: 3.0 12/8: 3.8 1/25: 4.3 (1.8 snow / 2.5 sleet) 1/31: 2.5 2/4: .5 3/12: .4 Total:14.5
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Mod snow/sub 1mi vis. Starting to stick a little. Honestly didn't see this coming. Was certain it wouldnt work down here. Hope this slug translates to the DMV. Was covered in sweat and dirt 24 hours ago. Wx is awesome lol
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Slush missiles have commenced. I didn't believe the models showing snow this far south but hey, I'll take the win.
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Thundersleet lol. What a wild day
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Should have waited 60 seconds before I posted... sleet now lol
