Bob Chill

Seems reasonable

Same. I just look at the ridge/trough orientation and glean some thoughts on source region. As depicted continental cold will dive east at times. That's the horse. Hopefully the cart bangs some precip into it when it matters. There could be a giant blob of blue heights in the Pac NW and we'd be better off discussing winter of 26-27 lol

Pretty much thinking the same thing as @Terpeast and @CAPE. CFS has been mostly unwavering for months. EPS and cansips basically in the same genre. Progressive NS dominant winter = so-so in all departments. Bad luck= disaster warm wet/cold dry cycles and good luck = a heater stretch or 2 with multiple events in compressed timeframes. Big events are possible in any winter and precip has trended up with dynamic storms because of reasons. No lr guidance is showing anything classic and I'm not expecting classic setups but you can never blanket write stuff off. Something nasty and dynamic is going to hit again one of these years. WDI keeps climbing every year too lol. Gut guess is this winter will be warmer than last winter (easy guess lol) and snowfall/frozen will probably end up at least in the barely acceptable department.

Salivating.... this has been a tuff summer down here for outside work. I put in my time no matter what but there is no way to fully "get used to" the level of soup that has been dominating the weeks since early June. Been tracking this pattern flip closely and making work plans. A 5 consecutive day break from relentless 70+ dews will be a lotto for me. The last few days have been nice but 3 days out of 30 doesn't really do much for my mental state lol

This hits... SE legend. Loved his posts and sense of humor. I will most certainly miss his knowledge and style. RIP forum brother and thank you for the decade+ of good reads and laughs

Yep... last summer was a soupy mess. I got really tired of it. I had some unfounded optimism going into this summer because you know.... rubber bands and stuff. Optimism erased. Lol. My complaints aren't even the temps. 90 degrees with reasonable dews is totally fine. Even low 90s. The pattern has been stupid stagnant soup with little wind. NWS Blacksburg had a quote in one of their AFDs that said "if you liked this week, you'll love next week. Looks like a carbon copy" lol. Referencing the pattern in a week timeframe and not a couple days sums up how persistent its been down this way. True groundhog day stuff. Maybe the back half of the summer breaks our way. Feels like lotto odds rd tho

Been watching ens guidance as well. I'd trade 2 of my kids for a 2 week break from this stuff. What a relentless summer. I'm so torched from yesterday I need a day off. Just don't have it in me to push thru and another humid heat beat down. It's only mid July too.... ugh

Sawyer bottles are awful. We buy the biggest sawyers on amazon and transfer into a good pump bottle that actually has a nice wide spray lol

Chiggers are straight devil spawn. Got me good 3 years ago. I didn't know much about them. An army got into my socks and it was 2-3 weeks of hell before it was finally over. A big bag of WTF. Hit me a few other times since and in areas that no man wants to get chiggered... pure evil... Ticks are off the chain everywhere and alpha gal is no joke. Our neighbor got alpha gal and hasn't eaten red meat in 4 years. Apparently it eventually goes away but F that ish. I'm taking no chances anymore. Premethrim on my shoes, socks, and work pants on the regular. Picardin or however you spell it on my skin twice a day. I like that stuff a lot. I hate deet. Picardin is the way. Works great and no stinky slime on your skin. Honestly, i have no fear of anything except insects in the woods. Friends ask about snakes and bears and stuff like that and I always say the only thing to worry about is insects. Take em seriously

My day to day life seems 100% normal now but when I take a closer look at the last 3 years I do wonder if I'm... hmmmm.... well.... maybe just a little insane? My wife and I joke around that we are being prodded to "get ready for something". Which I always say is fun crazy talk but deep down inside, if I'm being totally honest with myself, a small part of me wonders if it's true

Lol. Not me. Wife is 100% the brains of the grow operation. I just do what I'm told and I like moving dirt and building stuff and things like that Sunflower fields are awesome. IIRC, they follow the sun thru the day. You should set up a time-lapse while drinking beer all day on the side of the rd and confirm. Hahaha

Grabbed a couple garden pics this AM. Veggies consist of squash and zukes in the closest bed with the trellis and the other trellis bed in the distance is beans like scarlet runners and some cukes. Empty bed kinda hidden is potatoes in grow bags. We just harvested most of them and replanted. Smallish yields but bags are really easy to deal with when growing potatoes. Big long bed is killing it. It's actually 2 rows of plants with a string of peppers in front (jalapeno, Tabasco, shishito, nardello, poblano, Italian cherry) and a WALL of tomatoes behindlol. All kinds of tomatoes that I can't remember most of. Coyotes are my faves. I just eat them whenever lol. The rest are various heirlooms and nearly every plant is stacking up with fruits. We've had some pest problems but pretty minor so far. We had shit luck with tomatoes in Rockville. Always something like fungus, mildew, and blossom end rot. Down here is much more forgiving. Pretty sure it's cooler nights and low pollution. It's rare to have lows above 70 in the forest. Still gets hot AF during the day but the natural air conditioning of the forest is pretty amazing. Next year we'll have a 12'x24' greenhouse built along with at least triple the amount of beds. This year is experimental and it's far exceeded our expectations already. Incredibly satisfying

Prolific lightning down this way. Torrential rain is taking a back seat to the epic cg stuff. Best light show I've seen in years. Wow. Training cell is warned but little of any wind or hail. Wouldn't want to be walking around in this one. Nowhere to run or hide lol

@RDM wow man, that's sick... love it. Seriously. Masonry is one building skill I haven't practiced much but greatly respect. Not much room for error and it's gotta be just right from the get go. You'll remember the build like yesterday and appreciate it forever. I'm excited to build our house. Modest size but lots of little touches that wife and I will love and appreciate until our time on earth is up. Then our kids can fight over it lolol

CFS has been showing a similar -epo/+pna pattern for months now. Progressive flow kinda similar to the 2013-15 winters. Bootleg -AO at best on the plots but who knows anymore. Volatility rules the roost lately and long range hasn't done well for years. My personal algorithm says odds favor a -AO more than the other way around. No reason to be down on our chances. All seasonal guidance has an OK pac DJF. At least the epo/pna as shown can deliver continental cold in the east. My gut says winter won't be 3 month cruise on the failboat fwiw