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About Bob Chill

- Birthday July 15
Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
Va48
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Gender
Male
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Location:
Penhook, VA
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Interests
Cat 5s up the chesapeake and a foot of ice
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Fun day. Had our 3rd tstorm of the day roll thru a few mins ago and another on its heels. Nothing close to severe but they've all been noisy. Popcorn boomers
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Imo, cansips is prob a best case scenario. -EPO door to door and no deep GOA trough. I don't think the classic nino height pattern will be friendly like it has in the past. Oceans are warm and the pac jet is more problematic. We've needed amplified flow and the majority of our snows over the last 10+ years happened with a -EPO. "Regular" cold has been delivering near misses way too often and ninos aren't known for anomalous cold in the east. Waaaay too early to worry about details of course but personally I'm not that excited about a nino. The only thing that will make me optimistic over the summer (assuming a nino actually happens lol) is a legit +PDO forming. If a nino locks in and the npac sstas are all jacked up, I'll be pretty pessimistic
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Bob Chill replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Second tstorm of the day for my yard. Nothing severe but some good gusts with the first one. One right now is pretty noisy but looks like the severe stuff will stay to my NW. Enjoying the booms and rumbles either way- 279 replies
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It's time to grade Winter 2025-26(now that it's actually over)
Bob Chill replied to CAPE's topic in Mid Atlantic
Easy A- grade here Climo is lower in my hood but over 14" is climo+ and having a 2 week period of complete snowcrete cover is quite rare. Accum snow in each month DJFM + plenty of cold temps made it a door to door winter appeal. Again, pretty rare. Had snow on snow during the snowcrete stretch and that's always a nice bonus in any winter. Only reason I can't go A is I couldn't manage a 4"+ single storm. There's plenty of history down this way with bigger storms in the 6-18" range. Just missed that on the Carolina big storm as areas just 30 miles to my south picked up 6" or more. Had that event produced (I got 2.5"), it would have been an easy A grade. A+ (imho) requires a double digit snow even along with all the other important factors -
When I lived in CO ski country I used to go through that same weird transition. The month of May is the single worst time to visit or live in ski country. We called it mud season. Everything soggy, rivers too high to fish, lakes still frozen, and too much leftover snowpack for back country hiking/biking. It really sucked. After my first season I learned and would take the whole month off and travel to see friends in the east. Then my summer job would start memorial day weekend. Deep creek is totally similar. I recommend traveling and partying heavily until the lake season kicks in hahaha
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Even for March standards this is pretty wild lol. Down to 43 now. 20+ degrees in an hour feels like a time warp haha. Im starting to think I have a chance at some snow before the precip exits. Shield is pretty big in the cold sector. Last week it started snowing at 37 degrees. Accums seem much less likely (near 0% lol) this time but seeing snow fall again within 24 hours of sweat and t-shirts is comical
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Went from 65 to 48 in a blink. Wx has been a little bipolar last week or so lol.
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Under a warning for the squall line moving through but it's not severe. Just heavy rain and some typical gusts. No lightning either. 3 warnings in one day lol but none verified in my yard. Which is completely fine with me. I have enough work to do without adding to it
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Line is still to my west but front running rain has broken out and it's bringing wind down with it. Has to be gusting low 40s. You can hear the roar in the distance before the gusts roll through. Still out of the south but Roanoke has switched to westerly and gusting high 30s. This is better than both of the 2 lines that moved through earlier.
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Wow. This hits. RIP wx brother.
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Winds kicking up down here pretty good now with gusts in the low 30s. Wind advisory may verify with fropa in a few hours even if storms aren't organized.
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Second line was pretty garden variety. First one had some gusts in the 40s albeit brief. Second one was just heavy rain and a couple good rumbles. So far radar to ground truth has been more bark than bite. Looks like I lull until squall line/fropa.
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Second warned line moving through in a few. Brief rotation down by Martinsville but my area looks like straight line stuff at worst.
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I'm rooting for EF3s that very gently disassemble things and then gently reassemble them somewhere else.
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It's pretty nasty buy but not anything crazy. Biggest gusts during torrential rain and some decent CG. Power is still on lol
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