Bob Chill

Down to 13 now. It's been a heck of a winter run since Dec 1st. Nice to know we can still get legit fast starts. Dec has been a punt month for years lately

I don't trust the CFS all that much but it looks good for Feb. -EPO, +PNA, -AO, and a sprinkle of -NAO. Active southern stream/split flow....

19 and still plenty of wind but managed to see 2 meteors in 10 mins. Hopefully wind lays down by 10pm or so. Crystal clear night for watching the geminids

13-14 was the only year in my 25 rockville tracking years where i was honestly seriously tired of it by the end. Last couple march events felt like a chore. And here we are... where I'd trade a kid to experience it again hahahah

VDay 2014 was one of my faves iirc. There was a lull before the ULL pass and it dropped another 3.5" of high ratio/big dendrites on top of a foot or so. It was already a snowy winter but we hadn't had a big storm up until that point.

I'm so down with a Roanoke/Richmond > DC/Baltimore shellack and Philly fringe/NYC bust storm.

NAO is typically more volatile than the AO so it's usually the other way around. It's actually not all that common for the GEFS to mess up the AO in the D7 range like it has. Why it's been happening is well over my paygrade lol but something is causing it. Maybe strat stuff. Hard to say. I find it pretty interesting though The AO affects storm track and jet patterns across the continent so it's an important index for storm track. NAO is a key ingredient to a big/slow moving storm so for us in the MA, it's important. Up in the NE a big -NAO is often a net negative. Snowfall correlation in the MA is more closely tied to the AO vs NAO. We're due for a neg ao/nao combo and big storm. 2016 is the last classic mauling. Going 10 years without one isn't very common. Let's collectively will one our way and have it exit south of NYC for old times sake hahaha

AO is my #1 thing to track and NAO is #2. No matter what the pna is doing, a -AO keeps the door open for snow chances 90% of the time and a +AO is the opposite of that. Quite the AO spike going on and it was missed completely by the gefs. It's no coincidence that my 2 snowfalls this year coincide with the -AO. Being south of my old yard means less wiggle room so it's logical for me to live and die by the AO more than you lol. Right now lr ens spread is split with a return to a neg AO d10-15. Interestingly, the nao is prog'd to go negative in the mid/lr and thats prob what is keeping the door open for CAD events. Storm track looks unfriendly but cold getting boxed in can still work even if imperfect. If we can get a neg AO/NAO combo going before the end of the month we could be right back in good times.

Great pics northern peeps! Nothing down here obviously but wanted to strongly recommend spending some time tonight skywatching for the Geminids. Saw 7 last night in like 5 minutes. Red, white, and blue colors. We were looking SE around 1030pm. Moon was still down so great dark sky conditions. Last night and tonight are the peak.

Prob a good guess. Same thoughts here. The only real way to overcome a GoA or PacNW trough is -nao and some sort of 50/50 if you want a classic storm track. Enough signs of CAD to not write off the next 2 weeks but it looks fairly hostile. Those deets can get sorted at shorter ranges. I'd sure like to see the AO do another steep drop. Models haven't been doing well in that dept. Even 7 day progs have been slow to catch those moves recently. Maybe another is in the cards before month end. Patience is always needed at times every winter in these parts.

I'm convinced it's a dna hardwired trait. I was obsessed with snow when I was 2 and my parents didn't care for it all that much. There was no conditioning and I was too young to understand science. Simply born this way... for better or worse... probably worse

936-1212 lol. The ink was worn off the buttons on our kitchen phone hahaha. When snow was in the forecast I would burn it up late afternoon waiting for the update. Great memories that few can relate to outside of this forum. I'm pullin for you folks up north. It's a tricky setup but I really hope it comes through and swipes the metros with a satisfying snowfall. Nature's Xanax and things like that

Im not a huge fan of wxbell numerical index plots. Im not sure what algorithm they use but it's usually overstated to reality. Good trend though! Ensembles have struggled with quick shifts of the AO/NAO in both directions since early Nov. Part of me didn't want to believe the shift strongly positive but I finally caved to the idea after 5+ days of guidance showing it. Of course as soon as I caved things started uncaving haha. Wx is a cruel hobby but never boring. If blocking does in fact reset back to favorable, we're right back in the game even with the Pac being a bit hostile. I like CAD overrunners. They may get messy but they are rarely dry. Fingers crossed

Not showing up well in the ens (yet?) but ops keep printing variations of a legit -nao in the d10-15 range. Primary reason why they are spitting out some winter wx. Can't really buy it yet but if ens shift towards the idea my interest will jump considerably. 0z EPS had some hints of the idea and 6z gefs took it a step further....

Check out the blocking too lol. Don't think I've ever seen this before... the legendary banana block haha