Bob Chill

Don't worry mitch, the daily weeklies jump around like a meth head on payday and above normal precip will be back right about the same time we lose the cold at day 23. But the good thing is we'll be tracking a legit threat inside of day 7 by then and not GAF about the weeklies anymore until the back edge shows on radar (onset for Ji). Then we can start the neurotic cycle all over again.

Once you see the crazy eyed smiling face blocking pattern you can't unsee it. One of the wildest looking progs I've seen basically ever lol. Break out the Visine and stuff haha

This is probably all you need to see. A massive closed upper level low casually walking across and turning up. Storms like this will be picked up pretty far in advance on current models.

Jokes aside, if there is any month that doesn't require perfection or even "good" to snow, it's Jan. Doesn't look like east ridge hell anywhere on guidance. Just need activity. Jan can be on the dry side compared to Feb/Mar but it can also be active. I never lost optimism in Jan producing and odds seem above avg for a couple events. Luck and chaos will figure it out as usual lol

It's looking like 50/50 odds of a giant storm to me. We either get one or we dont. 50/50. Just like megamillioms, 50/50 every ticket. Dems goodz maphs amirite?

He's still human so we're all alloted some bad days per year and bad days are subjective. For Ji, a reasonable logical post is a red flag bad day

I personally find Ji pretty funny lol. The man has never broken character once in the 20+ years I've been reading his posts. He is a unique character that embodies the sum of every MA weenies neurotic thoughts. He's literally an exponentially amplified algorithm that includes a piece of all of us. Once you see it in that context it becomes quite entertaining but it's a subjective opinion hahaha. We ARE Ji... lolol

Good for you but sucks for me lol. I'm driving to Boulder CO Jan 7-8th. I can't control jack but sorry folks... I gotta root against this one... and then I gotta root against storms thru the 16th until I get back. Sorry folks x2

That's a primary problem. HP is weaker too and it really needs to be 1035+ to stand ground and make things work. 1030 or less will get pushed out of the way. Especially in the mids. 12z run wasn't what you want to see.

Mixed bag and nothing super interesting. Dec 28-31 2008 & Jan 13-18 2000 would be the other closest. Jan 3 22 was a flukey storm and not a common setup. Analogs favor warm overall but the strong block brings in the chance. OTOH, analogs show past history isn't that dire rolling forward into Jan. The only rat showing up is Dec 2012 and it's not a strong correlation. I remain confident there will be winter wx here in Jan.

Lol. Stranger things have happened but I'd put the odds on that as near zero. HP under the block is way to weak to bully anything that far. You guys are in the game for now. Jan 3 2022 redux. That analog has been top 5 for 3+ days. Right now it's top 3. It won't come easy but if I still lived in Rockville I'd be pretty interested rn

Exactly. All too often there are 2 modes of thinking here... wall to wall good or door to door turd lol. Through history the vast majority of our winters fall in between. A general mix of good periods and blind shitting. Simply guessing an in between winter is the highest odds and the most common outcome. This winter sure feels like an in-betweener to me

I don't follow anyone about long range stuff and usually stick to my own thoughts but wasn't Webb on the cold/blocking train just a few weeks ago? When all guidance was unified in the general idea? Of course it didn't work out and here we are but wouldn't it be the same mistake to jump all in on what lr guidance is unified on now? Long range weather is one fickle beast. If it was easy to predict beyond a couple weeks we could all just be energy traders and retire in a couple years. But it doesn't work like that. Not even close really. I never thought this would be some kind of awesome snowy winter but to marry the idea that it's "mostly over" already is a blunder imho. Analogs are nearly unified that the way out of the current persistence is a cold and/or stormy period in the east. It makes sense to me as the winter see-saw has been part of the personality already and likely to continue (imho only). I personally don't agree that things are dire and a persistent hostile snow pattern is here to stay. If anything, I expect a 2 week period in Jan to be pretty good for chances. Luck and timing hold the cards for production but my money is on real winter returning for a decent period in Jan. Guidance is currently starting to pick up on the idea late in the first week of Jan. I'm starting to expect that trend to continue. Wait and see for now.

Looks like ens are filling in with 2 camps now. The mean shows no major shift with large scale features but under the hood looks more promising. Fairly deep (semi stable?) trough diving down and height rises along the west coast. Could be the first sign of a way out of the current doh! pattern lol. Ops are obviously hinting at the idea with the 6z gfs going straight nuts lol

Pretty simple thoughts based on 2 things that my intuition keeps bringing up. 1) I expected blocking to be on the friendly vs hostile side and 2) we're over due for a decent coastal that gets everyone. Not a giant storm as they are pretty rare. Just a decent coastal that has a pretty uniform 1"+ of qpf and drops 8-12" across all 3 airports. I also don't think this nina is all that strong nor will it influence the winter door to door. Both of my snowfalls had a southern connection to precip already. Northern stream action is the bulk of our snowfalls and storm chances in every enso phase. Jan 2016 came onshore in the pac nw. The main shortwave was northern stream. But it tapped the southern stream when it mattered and went nuts. People get too hung up on northern stream being anti snow. It's only anti snow when the gulf or Southern stream is closed for business. So far this year, gulf moisture tap has been decent. I don't see why that won't continue at times.