Bob Chill

My yard is walking the ptype line but your yard is gtg haha

It was a fun ride while if lasted. See ya in September when you cancel next winter.

Just caught up with this thread. In a nutshell.... lol

12/2: T .003" zr and 5-6 sleet pellets 12/5: 3.0 12/8: 3.8 1/25: 4.3 (1.8 snow / 2.5 sleet) 1/31: 2.5 Total: 13.6

Models definitely got the crazy gradient idea right. I'm surprised you got less than an inch. I'm prob 30 miles south of you as a crow flies and I'm at 2.5". Still snowing so I may be able to add to that but the end is near. I'm curious what Martinsburg and Chatham end up with.

It's an evil radar loop. I feel for ya. Been through some incredible busts and march 2013 still haunts me to this day. Looks like the coastal bands are finally going to push into RDU. I hope a deform band sets up and parks over your yard.

That has to be one of the more evil dry slots. Upper level low and coastal have remained 2 separate and discrete events. RDU should get into the ULL action shortly but it's a shame things didn't merge and play nice today.

3k and hrrr have done terrible for my yard last 3 runs. I'm over 2" otg and it hasn't stopped snowing since I got up this AM. Had several hours of light/non accum snow between 11am-2pm but it's picked back up the past hour with vis under 1mi.

Interesting event down here. Figured I was done for the day around 1pm when if looked like dry air was shutting down accum rates. Getting a nice burst of steady light snow and vis back under a mile. Not sure how long it will last but might be able to add to the 2".

Yea lol. If wouldn't surprise me at all if the ridge connection happens for like... 3 days... before a trough digs right back in. I see nothing about this pattern that says it's going to morph into extended warmth/shutout.

Practically every single one of our snow events has fine details that no hemispheric index can account for. Basically chaos, luck, and timing factors. Those same factors can produce a snow event when basically all indicies are working against us. That said, odds favor higher probabilities of winter weather vs rain when the indicies are in total sync. I personally don't like amplified +pna/-nao periods as much as others here. It's a good combo for a noreaster but it's also a good combo for non-stop cold/dry frontal passages. I personally prefer a more neutral or slightly negative PNA with blocking help because it opens the door for more widespread precipitation across the eastern half of the conus. You've probably heard me talk about the "big bowl" pattern. That's my favorite for tracking because there are multiple ways to score even if the risk is higher for mixed events or cutters. I like action more than big dog chasing and that's why 2013-14 is one of my favorite winters of all time. I have a bias so keep that in mind when I like what I see. A slightly negative pna with a neg ao/nao combo is a big bowl pattern. We might be heading for one and I personally like that even though it opens the door for bad tracks and rain even with blocking. CPC d8-14 analogs are pretty loaded with winter wx chances Late jan/early feb 2021 has a big noreaster but MD didn't do well. Analogs shouldn't be used to predict that level of detail. The fact that a noreaster existed during the analog period is a big plus. We often say "I'd take my chances with a repeat of a storm like that" which is a good way of looking at it. No 2 storms are alike and even though Boxing Day 2010 was a gut punch, I'd take my chances with another shot at a similar but not identical setup. The list above also includes late Jan 04, mid Feb 2007, early Feb 95, and late Jan 2009. All of those periods produced winter wx in the DMV. IIRC, mid Feb 2010 also had a big coastal that impacted areas to our NE. The above list is yelling that a potential east coast storm is on the horizon

Big blocks (especially the NAO) have a history of this. Some of the dmv's coldest/driest periods have happened during strong neg naos. Carolinas biggest storms have occurred during the same. The flip side is some of the biggest dmv storms have happened during the breakdown of big blocks. Based on history, were prob not even at the halfway point of the current blocking cycle and it will oscillate. The next 3-4 weeks are also the dmv's prime snow climo. I'm pretty optimistic for snow chances over the next month and (imho) chances for a large storm are above to much above normal.

Fwiw, ukie was abysmal with the current storm. I mean absolutely terrible. Euro/ai appear to be doing the best (shocker lol), cmc #2, gfs/ai #3. Imho, based on what I've seen so far this season, you can pretty much hug the euro/ai combo inside of 7 days and use the cmc for confirmation. Gfs seems to only add uncertainty into the mix

Up to 2 inches so far. Looks like most models are going to bust low on the NW periphery. Not sure if I can squeak another inch out but the mesos aren't going to do well with this one in my yard. 15 degrees and the wind is picking up. Roads dont look like roads lol. Snowmobiling isnt a thing down here but I sure wish I had one today lol. Deep winter.

I'm just a few miles from the dam at Smitn Mtn Lake