Winterweatherlover
-
Posts
1,582 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
-
Euro coming north for next weekend (actually starting late Friday) hopefully doesn't end up as far north as the GFS.
-
Agree the Euro and American models will mess with your head lol, I trust the Canadian models most. However they are showing sleet close to Philly and not blanking the city.
-
Doesn't look like quite all snow for NYC on the Euro but pretty close at least for northern parts. Would be interested to see Kuchera maps.
-
Once you start seeing frozen precip down to Philly and Southern NJ its a good sign for at least something for us. I'm still not buying the Euro's all snow solution but I also am growing confident that uptons map blanking the city entirely will be wrong.
-
I have a different take. I think HPN might be in a very good spot with this one. I think areas just north of the city could do very well with the front end. It depends how far north the pellets make it but usually being just north of sleet is good for heavy snow in this type of WAA setup.
-
Definitely conservative near the coast but I could see why given the winter and the setup.
-
I'd def rather have the Canadian models and Euro in my camp than the GFS/Ukie. However I agree with you about SWFE and late north trends so agree not to be too hopeful yet.
-
Can you post their map?
-
Looking at the run the best dynamics on the Ukie run go into NW NJ and the HV. The city is only 0.2 qpf through 12z Tue. So some of it lack of cold air but some of it is where does that initial heavy moisture focus.
-
Ukie way warmer for Monday-Tuesday. Another model like gfs I would put low stock in though but potentially a more amped up/ warmer solution is still on the table.
-
Thanks for the analysis.
-
Hopefully the stuff in pa can make it here without drying out.
-
The gfs looks on its own planet for next weekend as well.
-
This has already been the best storm of the winter, giant flakes sticking right away.
-
I don’t disagree with you. I think we are on the same page here. The Canadian models on board is a huge flag that this is a real threat for accumulating snow down to NYC. Gfs should be of low consideration right now unless any other models trend to it.
-
Huge flakes now the type you usually see when about to change to rain yet it’s 25.
-
I can tell you whoever can avoid sleet with that initial surge if moisture will do well because there’s gonna be some heavy waa snow just north of the sleet.
-
It had been showing a significant storm with rain NYC/LI and 6+ snow HV to NE. Now the gfs is the only model that looks like that. All the others mostly show a 2-5 inch event everywhere.
-
That map looks so different from pivotal.
-
Gfs just trended significantly for Mon/Tue, probably still will cave further in the next few runs.
-
Light snow here.
-
The Monday storm has definitely severely weakened but I’d imagine we’d all take a 2-4 inch snow to sleet event over rain.
-
I mean 33/31 temp onset of precip is usually favorable for snow?
-
Looks about the same?
-
Looking at the soundings they don’t seem to totally match the precip type maps unfortunately.
