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Winterweatherlover

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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover

  1. Winterweatherlover
    Yea sleet into central PA and no strong secondary is basically writing on the wall for anyone I80 or south. Again though the thump could save everyone.
  2. Winterweatherlover
    Honestly if LI/NYC get 10 inches out of this at this point it would be a major win and a great storm. I am not even convinced the immediate NW suburbs are getting 10 inches at this point. I think the NWS is too bullish. But if most of the area pulls off 9+ with an SWFE that's a huge win.
  3. Winterweatherlover
    Are there key locations in the south that we should be checking in terms of NAM predictions vs actual outcomes?
  4. Winterweatherlover
    I think the all snow idea is pretty much done, it's not realistic with this storm but hopefully it comes in very thumpy.
  5. Winterweatherlover
    Yes the RGEM which also has a warm bias being generally snowy is also why I'm holding out hope the NAM is wrong.
  6. Winterweatherlover
    If the NAM is right just hope it's sleet and not ZR.
  7. Winterweatherlover
    if the NAM still looks like this at 0Z I'd give it a real chance to beat out everything else, right now it's still wobbly and a bit out of it's ideal range.
  8. Winterweatherlover
    The NAM is introducing significant freezing rain into LI now.
  9. Winterweatherlover
    NAM ugly for NYC south. At this point have to start taking it more seriously given it's ability to sniff out mid level warming better than other models. I am not saying ride it 100% but I wouldn't discount it either.
  10. Winterweatherlover
    Precip starts around 7:00 am in NYC and earlier in Philly and picks up rapidly pretty fast. Yes especially driving toward Philly will be crazy by 10:00 AM.
  11. Winterweatherlover
    UKIE is basically all snow for NYC but remains dry.
  12. Winterweatherlover
    The reality is the numbers don't change much run to run on the models for NYC, pretty consistent 8-10 inches for NYC. GFS has been the high outlier usually showing around 15 inches and NAM the low outlier with around 4-7.
  13. Winterweatherlover
    RGEM looks good, GFS seems to hold. I'd lean toss NAM for now, give it more weight if it holds its solution tomorrow.
  14. Winterweatherlover
    Agree I think upton is being too aggressive and Mount Holly even more aggressive. They are probably being cautious to alert the public and will back down a little tomorrow if current modeling holds.
  15. Winterweatherlover
    Another thing is usually if you are near the sleet/snow line the reality is there will be flips back and forth between snow and sleet and some mixing at the same time rather than simply hours of only sleet on one side of the line and only snow on the other. The models don't really capture this nuance I don't think.
  16. Winterweatherlover
    Depends on who gets the best rates in terms of the initial thump. Theres definitely a scenario where coastal NJ could get similar totals to NYC in this setup if their rates are better.
  17. Winterweatherlover
    Seems they are mostly holding steady as opposed to trending any particular way. Either way yes the NAM seems to be the outlier now, although if it's the outlier 24 hours from now I'd take it more seriously.
  18. Winterweatherlover
    Seems delayed
  19. Winterweatherlover
    consistency either means right or consistently lost lol
  20. Winterweatherlover
    I'm not buying freezing rain vs snow, theres going to be a lot of sleet in between.
  21. Winterweatherlover
    I mean 8-12 inches is def still a lot of snow, no doubt. I'm thinking closer to 6-10 for CNJ/NYC at this point, 1010 wins actually calling for only 4-8 while NWS is calling for 10-14 so everything all over the place. I guess i overreacted because every model run all week has been 6+ for NYC metro and now the NAM is showing under 6 inches at the last moment.
  22. Winterweatherlover
    Because it made a nice step at 12z and then went back at 18z so why would we believe this is anything but a wobble. I will say the NAM is still beyond it's ideal range and the rgem which tends to have a warm bias being colder is giving me a little hope, hopefully it holds at 0Z.
  23. Winterweatherlover
    This is why todays trends are concerning, i felt we needed a nice south shift today expecting the north tick tomorrow as is the case with SWFE, instead of cushion the models basically stayed steady today overall but now any north shifts tomorrow and NYC on south really could get shafted which I honestly didn't think possible all week.
  24. Winterweatherlover
    I'm starting to have a love-hate relationship with this storm.
  25. Winterweatherlover
    Based on uptons point and clicks it seems they think sleet line makes it up to about the cross country parkway. Doesn't really matter anyway since everyone is getting 10+ to the ocean per upton.
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