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AtlanticWx

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Everything posted by AtlanticWx

  1. AtlanticWx
    how is it not? you have a strong high north of us damming cold air into the mountains here. this is pretty clearly a CAD signature
  2. AtlanticWx
    25.7/21.0 rn. my predicted low tonight was like 29-30° lmao
  3. AtlanticWx
    all the models im looking at are underdoing the cold at surface level pretty wildly, wouldn't be shocked if we get more wintry weather than we expected tomorrow (not exclusively snow, just like sleet and stuff)
  4. AtlanticWx
    running 4° below NAM 3K's low too fwiw, cad is def doing its thing tn
  5. AtlanticWx
    currently below HRRR's forecasted low for tonight at 29° by about 2 degrees. temperatures are definitely colder than modeled
  6. AtlanticWx
    isn't it 00z though?
  7. AtlanticWx
    i do wonder if it got sampled, the confluence is over an area that isn't like data dead anymore regardless, hopefully we see these changes continue! wishing for a colder outcome for everyone
  8. AtlanticWx
    synoptically, 3k nam and nam had colder 850s leading into event as a result of the confluence being handled significantly differently this run at this lead time starting from only 18 hours out hopefully this is a trend and something we see on all guidance tonight! nam was pretty close for my liking tho honestly
  9. AtlanticWx
    this is just a thought but shouldn't the snow stick almost immediately because of how cold the ground is from the two days of pretty cold temperatures along with those 20 degree DPs up until onset? why use snow depth
  10. AtlanticWx
    why are operational models so much stronger than ensembles?
  11. AtlanticWx
    https://x.com/AtlanticWx/status/1742383118823178693?s=20 At least some positives have come out of climate change
  12. AtlanticWx
    im confused, this run looked worse before it played out? what makes 18z gfs even better? am i missing some weird vort
  13. AtlanticWx
    i think the panic comes from the tight gradient and the fact that we're still so far out
  14. AtlanticWx
    the trend for a faster storm is pretty evident here
  15. AtlanticWx
    yeah i like seeing all that snow south of the fall line. but euro definitely scares me. while ik icon is shit, im just glad it shifted south
  16. AtlanticWx
    i would like to see south shifts on the ensembles & models into 0z now.
  17. AtlanticWx
    nope, op is a bit more NW than the ensembles
  18. AtlanticWx
    i like our chances here in the mid atlantic for once, we track
  19. AtlanticWx
    18z eps control looks amazing btw, and it usually shadows the op. it looks like there's more cold and precip starts quicker. it looks colder than gfs at the very least 18z on top, 12z on bottom
  20. AtlanticWx
    feels like we're just setting up for an amazing late winter with all that snow cover we're setting rn
  21. AtlanticWx
    the 8" storm is the late feb 1983 snowstorm btw. it'd be a rainstorm today.
  22. AtlanticWx
    for fun, i did an analysis of the snow events we've lost due to climate change. the results were pretty surprising, but it wasn't as high as i thought it'd be. still alarming -- we're losing an average of ~1.1 snow events per year.
  23. AtlanticWx
    ICON would've snowed too damn, what made the 0z models change sm? sampling?
  24. AtlanticWx
    ofc we'll see a +PDO again, it's a decadal oscillation so it usually flips every ~10 years or so
  25. AtlanticWx
    exactly, like AGW is happening fast but i feel like especially in the forums it's exaggerated for how much of an effect it has. it still can snow, like on dec 11 when we got a T-3" area wide storm when we expected nothing in a pretty horrible pattern because it just came together perfectly i think while a lot of the snowlessness recently has to do w AGW & its effects, i also think its just really bad luck along w the -PDO worsening everything since 2016
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