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AtlanticWx

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Everything posted by AtlanticWx

  1. AtlanticWx
    what are people's thoughts on ratios being overdone with kuchera for this event? soundings don't look impressive, with ripping winds and subpar lift in the DGZ just like on monday for the frontend thump
  2. AtlanticWx
    snowflakes look so much healthier now than they were in the first round. really seeing the impacts of better snow growth, accumulating nicely and efficiently
  3. AtlanticWx
    ripping fatties in germantown
  4. AtlanticWx
    3/8" of snow in the last 17 minutes, 1.3"/hr rates. Up to 4.7", but snow depth is around 4.3-4.4" due to compaction probably
  5. AtlanticWx
    .6" in the past 30 minutes, 1.2"/hr rates in gtown with radar only lighting up more. been sitting in greens and some yellows
  6. AtlanticWx
    i think that initial thump that exceeded expectations really set us up well. now FGEN is coming in and much of the area is eyeing down 1.25-2"/hr rates. sleet line coming north should also give us some heavy snow with better flake size i imagine
  7. AtlanticWx
    holy shit. look at the precip nw of the vort max, way overperforming compared to short res models. the dmv is in for a rude awakening tonight when everyone's gonna think the storm is over and then it comes back. getting jan 2019 vibes with this look tbh
  8. AtlanticWx
    question on this actually. is it better to keep my measurements precise until the very end to round it up? bc if i keep rounding it up intermittently, then don't i risk overinflating totals?
  9. AtlanticWx
    3.15" in Germantown.
  10. AtlanticWx
    yeah it's really coming down now. was getting like 0.6-0.7"/hr before even with the needles, so whatever this drops is going to be insane
  11. AtlanticWx
    can confirm rates are getting heavier in gtown. but are you sure you're only seeing that much in ashburn? areas all around you have like 2-3"
  12. AtlanticWx
    2.2" in S Germantown as of 3 AM (!!). was not expecting to get this much this early
  13. AtlanticWx
    maybe i'm reading into this too much, but i think that gulf feed looks a lot better than modeled. dry slot seems more pronounced & that line of storms is def stronger. i think this storm is about to bang
  14. AtlanticWx
    it actually did trend north for those in the dc beltway though. lwx forecast had moco, ffx, hoco and dc getting like 6-8" and we made out with 12".
  15. AtlanticWx
    rgem goes south with 10" in richmond. what is up with this model lol
  16. AtlanticWx
    jan 12 2019 gives me the closest vibes to this. diff setup though, lowkey better rates overall but a worse coastal
  17. AtlanticWx
    honestly i really like this look for those in the immediate dc suburbs. being to the north of the max snow with a system like this that is ripping with WAA is exactly how you overperform. being on the southern edge is much more nailbiting than being on the northern edge, esp with higher ratios. it's giving jan 19 2024 last year, but with a decently higher ceiling
  18. AtlanticWx
    really nailbiting part of tracking come up. i feel like all models evolve roughly the same with that NS over the great lakes, but gfs having a slower storm allows it to buckle in while it's suppressive on models like the euro. all comes down to the way it amplifies over plains
  19. AtlanticWx
    1.3" here in Germantown. Confirmed with another spotter who lives next to me too. Highest rates I've seen in a while, it was like flakes coming down everywhere like whiteout conditions and whenever I'd step away I'd turn around and my footprints were covered
  20. AtlanticWx
    i think why a lot of people in the forum would be scared is because even though that shows a foot, a slightly warmer warm nose (as is the case for these types of storms) would absolutely cook everyone here. though, idt the southern cutoff is really that sharp.
  21. AtlanticWx
    Hol Holy SHIT. all but like 0.2-0.5" is from Jan 6
  22. AtlanticWx
    i think it's less impressive because most of all it cuts back the extra precip associated w the piece near the back edge which lines up with obs. but i just honestly doubt that it'll be that low because rates look impressive compared to NAM 3K which only gets to 1"/hr rates at best
  23. AtlanticWx
    i remember HRRR kept drying up and down trending run after run prior to 1/7/22 which isn't that far off from the storm we're supposed to get tonight since it was a quick hitter w great dynamics ended up with 6" of snow despite HRRR telling me i was gonna get 1-2" right before
  24. AtlanticWx
    37.2° right now, definitely running a bit cold. NAM 3K had us hitting 37-38° at 12 am
  25. AtlanticWx
    41° right now exactly. following models to a tee w temps rn
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