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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe someone is buying up natural gas?
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    We've been in this negative-NAO correlation/Pacific thing since 2013, and more so 2019. March 2018 was a west-based NAO block that came from SSW. I am afraid the strength of -NAO will only be mirrored by strength of +EPO/-PNA.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Believe it or not, there is a slight -pna correlation. what we need is neutral to positive anomalies over Alaska. Alaska and believe it or not there is a slight +nao correlation to snow too. If you minus the rising-out-of-negNAO-snowstorms, the correlation is greater.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Now we have a nice -NAO developing here in the LR on the ensembles Edit: kicks over to Greenland not as strong. Probably fitting to the March 9th-19 window I talked about.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    How long does it last for? Oct 30-Nov15: 45-60 days to downwell Nov 15-Dec 15: 30-45 days to downwell Dec 15-Jan 15: 25-35 days to downwell Jan 15-Feb 15: 15-25 days to downwell Feb 15-Mar 15: ~15 days to downwell Mar 15-Apr1: ~10 days to downwell (Started 2-15): 15 days to downwell.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually, has it happened yet? Because in La Nina/+QBO, you usually don't get Stratosphere warmings.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Did a study once on Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers.. point is found that they beat the spread most of the time. Were close to 60% on SNF and MNF. Point is, in perfect scenario, best QB wins even against the spread.. Eagles were going under the radar at 17-1 and I went contrary to that.. If Hurt's doesn't fumble on his own for a TD it's like 42-38 or something..
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's one heck of a +EPO trough diving in western Canada..
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since I moved up here in 1997, it's snowed something like 12/20 times in April when I was here (Harford Co.). I bet we get at least flurries this April.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've had one hanging out here since January. It looked worried that day the arctic front hit Maine.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    A sub-500dm 500mb low over Alaska before the storm, trending more neg anomaly on other models/ensembles after.. I doubt that's anything close to snow.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I doubt it.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    This Winter.. seems to be more "normal", doing analog-research and other things throughout the Winter vs previous Winter's that were more "smoothed out through the Hemisphere". 2012, March 2012 is hitting pretty hard as an analog right now, and this was the last relative max, which I think we could accelerate toward this Summer.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, EPO went negative for a few days. That's why models are showing snowstorms too (they are overinitializing current conditions).
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    We are hitting this correlation pretty hard on the Atlantic side. I was curious because models show a 597dm ridge over Florida, and there appears to be a slight correlation to higher hurricane season activity in the Atlantic following that.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look at the Pacific, and how there was a deep downstream trough in Russia, under a ridge.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    I give it like 1/20. I think they're trying to understand the 70 degree day that happens first. I also think the changing of NAO is mixed in with this as being a variable.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    We seem to need a longer term pattern hold to change. This 7 years of -PNA after a Strong El Nino doesn't make a whole lot of sense, if you are looking at it purely from ENSO. 72-73: 3 years of -PNA. 82-83: 3 years of negative ENSO. 97-98: 3 years of -PNA. 15-16: 7 years of -PNA. We seems to have a greater connection with the upper atmosphere or sun.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    EPO looks to go positive Friday, so it may smooth out warmer days thereafter.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm getting a signal +2 days from the 1st day of Spring, or Strong -NAO block until March 19th, lifting out for a snowstorm. This is something I've seen as the turn of a calendar event (month or season) as a mathematical anomaly, and now March 1st showing the big -NAO dive on current models.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    +EPO is underestimated in the MR/LR. Models have it turning to +EPO while NAO is transitioning to negative. I contend there is still a strong -NAO/+EPO-PNA correlation in play, Not really any chance for snow in that imo. There is some potential that the Pacific could be changing state around March 9th, for one, because of the length of -PNA at that time, when it was strongly transitioning to El Nino in the subsurface back in January.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Look at how weak this has gotten. I still contest that there is a D-0 correlation, so with forecasted -PNA through March 9, we could see much more weakening still.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    -NAO will likely rule the pattern March 9-19, -PNA until March 9. There is a stronger precipitation correlation than temperature. Models now develop a +EPO Day 7>, so it may also be hard to get highs under 50° when the -NAO initially begins.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I know I was terrorized until I posted on weather message board. Judgement ensues here..
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z GFS: Baffin Island Low dominates. -PNA dominates. Look at this piece of energy dropping into the NW @119hr: (Tracking the warmup.)
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