Stormchaserchuck1

We're going to go into Feb 13/14 with no snow. Global models had us below average temps/above normal precip for Jan and February, almost every run going back to September.

Yeah, its been showing it at Day 16 for a week now actually. But inside 16-days it's not holding the same strength is hit point.. today might be different though, because we're starting to pop a strong western ridge too, it's becoming a more organized pattern on the Day 16 model

Really good trend here in the LR! +PNA is massive, although it has been at the last panel for several days now. This is what you like to see though.. https://ibb.co/6YdrpgN Here are some Feb correlations to +PNA pattern: https://ibb.co/PQ4cLzn https://ibb.co/0jbdZK3 https://ibb.co/M6msjHq

Yeah my research gave Mahomes close to a 60% chance of covering. It looks like the Ravens weren't really challenged at all this year before the game. They were outplayed.

March Natural Gas... really coming in low here, the vs Gasoline/Crude Oil spread is top 5 all time. https://ibb.co/3Wg2GwQ

March Natural Gas = cheap. https://ibb.co/3Wg2GwQ

Here you go guys.. this is as close as we are getting this year. https://ibb.co/wCRcG54

It's amazing that Vegas underrates Lamar Jackson! The Ravens only have -3.5 in this game, and the home automatically gets 3 points in an even matchup. KC has not been that good this year! Ravens were leading all but the last game (resting Lamar) with 2:00 left in the 4th quarter.. only the '72 dolphins did that. Then they ended up playing 14/17 teams that finished the season >.500 (that's even after the Ravens beat most of them, with the best record in NFL), and they crushed SF in SF. and Beat Detroit 38-3! I found though that elite QBs (Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, etc) beat the spread about 58% of the time, so I'm a little worried about Mahomes there, but the Ravens are much better this year than Vegas has been giving them all along the way! Even now, SF is more favored to win the SB. KC does have the #2 defense in the league this year I think.

I wish we could see who weenies you!

Still on the last panel today, the 6th day. Finally starting to slightly pop a western ridge though at 6z 384hr.

Pattern change is still stuck at hr384, but it's not really trending too well before then. +PNA of significance showed up 5 days ago on the last panel, and it's still on that last panel.. trended to neutral +1-5 days.

There is not that much difference in the NAO because of "The -PDO depressing El Nino".

50/50 low and N. Pacific low as the two dominant N. Hemisphere features.. that's what it looks like in the big snowstorm examples. Let's see if the model holds those features as we get closer, like inside 12 days.. I say that because it's been so warm lately, and model flux has been above average this year.

That's what it looks like.. there has been a subsurface anti-correlation the last 2 Winter's. This year when the negative anomalies started showing up in the last week or two, we shifted to +pna and that looks to continue. Last February when we had warm water in the central subsurface by Jan-Feb, the atmosphere went -pna. I found that historically the opposite is usually true.

There is a big difference between the advertised pattern and your analogs. That +200dm anomaly over Greenland vs +70dm is a big difference.

With the amount of moisture available, I don't see why Boston couldn't get in on it too.

That's true they are increasing in duration but the NAO is positive Winter to date, and last year it was a little positive overall too. 21-22 was 4/4 positive months.

It's going to be hard for the NAO to get that negative though. Your composites are more than double the ensemble mean in the NAO area... today was the first major +NAO Jan 21-28 since 1997. Sometimes it takes a little while to shift that state, especially recently, we haven't been able to sustain a -NAO for several Winters/decades.

Wow.. -3 now in the central-subsurface, and it's only January. The maintenance of the subsurface warm pool earlier in the Winter was why I was not thinking we would be heading right back to La Nina, but this recent push is like those analogs that made a strong switch. It also, I have found historically correlates to more -PNA conditions, even if it's the N. America part of the measurement. But models are showing the opposite in February so we'll see..

Mid Atlantic seems like a good spot. Maybe even further south if we do really go into a sustained +PNA (which may or may not happen).

Could be a big Hurricane season if we go into a La Nina.

We might not have 7" for the year by then

17/18 El Nino's had a -SOI in January.. this one has a +3 to +5 SOI. Just putting that out there.. https://ibb.co/YT6YjLz (SOI +1 month is stronger than Nino 3.4 +1, in the south).

This is a pretty insane amount of moisture to work with though if it does get cold. https://ibb.co/553zQrQ

Yes, but they also had January as cold. I think we are +2-4 above average for the month.