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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    lol yeah models are a mess
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    GFS and NAM were doing the same thing last time.. It's a 984mb low off of Ocean city 16 days from our coldest of the year.. good chances imo. It may end quickly though.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    They will bust low like the last 2 times.. I expect Winter Storm Warnings to go up N of I-95 right before, or during the storm.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    20z Hrr brought the heavy snow totals furthest SW of all model runs so far, 6" to Frederick, MD. I'm pretty comfortable with where I am in Harford Co. to get 4-6".
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    eh.. Big difference right now between the GFS/NAM and Hrr/RAP with regards to rates. I guess they are lower resolution models.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    The GFS/NAM were showing 1-2" for the last storm at about this time, and the RAP/Hrr had 4-6", and some places got 6-7".
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    6" in northern MD on 20z Hrr.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Everything is a bit west at 10-11hr 20z Hrr vs 19z
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    3-4 hours of heavy snow on 20z RAP, I-95 and NW
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    closed 500mb https://ibb.co/Fg4gcGV
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    19z Hrr appears to be shifting a little south vs 18z.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    19z RAP gives DC 4".
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's transferring, but yeah a little SW.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Low pressure is on the VA/NC border at 16hr vs being off the coast of OC 22hrs 12z.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Precip not in NYC at 14hrs vs being in central Mass at 20hrs 12z. Storm is a little SW.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty big differences on the 18z NAM for being 10hrs out.. sea-level low is further SW.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    wow.. still stronger near NYC
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z Hrr is trending a little south 17hr vs 17z
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    whoa the 17z RAP still snowing
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    3z RAP isn't impressive down here, It's similar to the 0z GFS. SNE gets nailed on it though.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Fwiw, 2z RAP is SE of the 0z GFS with SLP at 21hr. https://ibb.co/s9XvCSg
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    New superstition: unpin threads that are going to snow. That one thread that we had pinned it was 80 degrees the day before.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    BAM. 2" in NE, MD on the 0z Hrrr
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    0z vs 18z Hrrr so far https://ibb.co/0ZvwBnb
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I forecasted a +PNA, but a lot of the CPC's calculations include Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska.. I'm mostly referring to Aleutian islands central-north N. Pacific trough, in reference to +PNA. In that regard, this Winter has not matched usual ENSO correlations, and really the whole event has been like that, since the Nino developed in April.
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