Stormchaserchuck1

Thanks. It's amazing how much we matched PDO this year: All you had to do was roll forward that SST configuration in the Summer/Fall. You can see how El Nino correlated too, with the NPH (North Pacific High) off the West Coast, US, rolling up into Siberia. Combination of Strong East-based El Nino and Strong -PDO (Fall) did very well in the Pacific 500mb this Winter.

I don't really feel like arguing this. Let's just say to check the soundings is the best way to go. Another point is that in the warmer sector of the last few storms, we have been drying up. That's because the frontogenesis sets up to the north where it's colder. They are not really two separate things. I noticed in 2020 I think that the snow depth was hitting it every time, and that continued through last year, and now it's 5/6 in the area this year.. it's just a little weenieish to post that 0.58" of precip is going to produce 5-6" of snow when the temp is 35. I feel bad because I know there's a lot of younger people that check the board (like me when I was younger) and they just want an accurate assessment. I don't really feel like arguing this anymore though.

I think +PNA still works. I've seen many cold periods lately, when the PNA lines up right. The -NAO is ridging north, and even the -AO and -EPO to an extent, but the W->E flow pattern is still in effect. The global +13dm -PNA over the total last 25 years is a major anomaly, and no one should be making assessments about snow seasons being over because of that anomaly. As far as I know, it's cyclical.

Walking around in the grass, it appears that I got 3".

In marginal situations, those high conversion rates don't work. Since temps were always suppose to be in the low 30s, I was right that models never showed more than 4".. I've looked at the snow depth product of every model since they started showing snow for this timeframe. Up where it was colder, they went higher.. that's how it works. I would say that over 28 degrees you get the ratios shown on snow depth, and under 28 degrees it maybe goes a little higher. NWS updated at 9pm today with 5-8" hold.. What were they thinking? Anyway it was very defensive pointing out that the models were not actually showing 4-6" around DC last night.. that's all. Hope you enjoyed the snow.

I'm at about 2". https://ibb.co/P1YBHBZ

Yeah, I'll end up with ~1.5" at 467'.

Shouldn't be attacked for disagreeing that it's going to snow a lot though.. this isn't a kiddie board

I guess my schtick is that I don't even read the NWS..

It's ok, light to moderate snow here, I can always tell when there is warm air around because rates are not that heavy. Roads and sidewalks are not freezing.

No more defenses about quality of NOAA maps I'm just trying to teach what I have found are the best ways.

just saying.. the depth charts have hit it 5/6 times this Winter.

Do you think the 0z GFS shows like 5-6"?

Flurries have begun!

Still nothing here.. all virga so far. Enjoy your 1-2" Winter Storm Warning north of the cities.. the radar is drying up west of Cumberland. I think it was an easy call.. models never had over 4".

Radar lightening up in WV.. https://radar.weather.gov/station/KRLX/standard

See that dryslot west of DC around the VA/WV border?

Big bust potential.. 1z and 2z models dried up a little further, have a lot of the precip getting stuck in the mountains.. 1-2" in the lower elevations north of I-95. Will be interesting to see what happens!

I'm down to 35F. There seems to be a heat island both in Baltimore and DC. https://ibb.co/M20dcQj

Especially because of the uptick in global SSTs in general, I always thought 0.2-3 should be subtracted to make it more even with everything. The precipitable water though.. It's #1 of all the years/Strong Nino's since 1948, beating #2 (15-16) by a good 20%. In pre-satellite data, some people use precipitable water to assess ENSO event strengths.

They are drying up, but you guys are acting like they showed 5-10" a few days ago.

2nd personal attack by a top poster on this board for discussing science. lol New Hrr has 1-2" area wide, although looking at radar that may be a little dry.. 2-4" may still be in play up north.

2 things. 1) They aren't really drying up right now. They haven't showed more than 4" across the area for the event the whole way along.. It's only suppose to snow moderately for 3-4 hours. that's why I'm like, why is the NWS predicting 5-8"? The radar and ground elements must be awesome. 2) Last storm they dried up last minute, and it verified. I know in the higher elevations you had like 6", but where I am I went from 4-6" on models to 1-2", and ended up with a dusting.. the whole area less than 500-1000ft experienced the same thing. That's why in these marginal temp situations the 1:10 Kuchera maps are especially wrong.. the snow fell very wet and light because warmer temps went into some upper levels of the atmosphere. I'm at 39F and it will probably drop down to 31-33, but for 10:1 results you usually need to be in the 20s.

Even the global models do not have more than 2-4".. I guess the radar is more impressive than that?

22z RAP gives DC <1" of accumulating snow.. it will be interesting to see if the NWS forecasts of 4-8" across the area verify.. models have not been showing that.