Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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I think a lot of attention is paid to the Pacific when ENSO may actually effect N. America directly If you look at the cold season correlation with Nino 1+2 there is actually a slightly higher max in N. America, north of the Great Lakes, than the NPH area in the N. Pacific It will be interesting to see what happens this Winter in this regard as the PDO/overall 500mb state of the Pacific is so different from El Nino atm. -
You know as well as I do that their forecasts underperform. I think they use mostly models, and you can actually utilize other methods (PDO, AMO, Summer N. Atlantic SSTAs, Summer arctic 500mb), to do better. As least that's how it's verified in the last 15 years. Keep in mind though that they did do really well in 15-16 and 23-24. Two of their best forecasts. but yeah, the possible fluctuation is pretty big. 18-19 was stock ENSO for a weaker Nino and it verified opposite. They had near average last Winter in the Rockies and some places were +10F for DJFM.
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Another arctic low at -400dm today. <5100dm! Since the Solar Max peak we have been getting this a lot May-Sept (24-26). A lot of the "patterns" seem consistent actually - warm start to Summer locally then near average or cooler ending. July-Aug being wettest months locally.
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New CPC temp outlook for JFM, kind of surprising it's based with mean ridge over NE more than NW Matches Nino 1+2 JFM composite
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Todays new CPC seasonal forecast has actually gone quite a bit warmer in the Northeast
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Yeah, something interesting is the CPC NAO index has run significantly higher in the wintertime than what the 500mb composite has looked like. We've had all but 1 +NAO Winters since 10-11. And that one was -0.21.
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What are you basing this on? Seasonal models had a mean trough for the EC, cold DJF anomaly in the seasonal mean in 23-24.. and it was pretty well above average. 18-19 a Weak Nino was looking good in the Fall then ended up being very -PNA I would argue that only the last 2 Winters underperformed, because we had below average temps DJF for the first time. There was a ridiculous -PNA pattern 2018-2024 that has nothing to do with luck. It was more of a base-La Nina ENSO state combined with very strong -PDO. I'm trying not to get lost in the PDO but it has been a good indicator!
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-SOI picking up again the last 2 days 20 Aug 2026 1013.20 1017.40 -35.32 -17.97 -22.25 19 Aug 2026 1013.80 1016.85 -28.34 -17.37 -22.07 And 7 straight days of -17 or lower.
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Again, the most positive 7-year ENSO time in history (since 1948) followed the only other time we had 5/6 La Nina years (1970-1976) (ONI) 70-71: Moderate La Nina 71-72: Weak La Nina 72-73: Strong El Nino 73-74: Strong La Nina 74-75: Weak La Nina 75-76: Strong La Nina Only other period on record to have 5/6 La Nina's, until 2020-2026 (RONI):20-21: Moderate La Nina21-22: Moderate La Nina22-23: Moderate La Nina23-24: Moderate El Nino24-25: Moderate La Nina25-26: Weak La NinaENSO tends to even out, historically. Here is what followed the 70-76 streak:76-77: Moderate El Nino77-78: Moderate El Nino78-79: Neutral79-80: Weak El Nino80-81: Neutral81-82: Neutral82-83: Super El Nino (07-12 was 4/5 La Nina's, then didn't see another one for 4 years, and 3 years later 15-16 was Super El Nino.86-95 was 4 El Nino's vs 1 La Nina, and was followed by 4/6 La Nina's.95-01 was 4 La Nina's vs 1 El Nino, and flipped to 2 El Nino, 2 Neutral, 0 La Nina's for 4 years, and the 97-98 Super El Nino was in there.*The 76-83 4 El Nino vs 0 La Nina was followed by only 2 El Nino's in the following 8 years in +PDO, and the Strongest La Nina on record (88-89) occurred in that period.)
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Everyone is saying shutout or HECS. I don't think the Winter will be like that. I can say pretty confidently that we will have snow periods, but maybe 3-12" type events. I don't see us blowing up a GOA low and -NAO, which are hecs patterns. We'll see.
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In a lot of months PDO has higher correlation than ENSO actually. In some months it actually has a higher correlation than PNA! Common sense says that PDO is more secondary, but a 7-year stretch where PHL had 10.7" of snow beating their previous 7-year low over 13.5" during the most -pdo time in history.. interesting coincidence? We were tracking the PDO before that. Last 2 winters we had good cold but I think cold Arctic Summers were a reason for that (which we have again this year).
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Even more impressive is +10c spanning almost 2,500 miles. And steady over long periods of time. It would take quite a bit of energy to produce that unnaturally.
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2 cold Winter's in the Northeast followed by an El Nino looks like this precip wise (10 analogs is a pretty good amount) Now keep in mind that includes Weak Nino's and we are going to have the strongest on record by 15%, so maybe it's still really hard to get a dry Winter but I thought the analog composite was interesting (since we know how the dry pattern has been present for the past 2 years, minus wet July and Aug which has been the decadal trend 2017-2026).
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Ice storm is typically a -EPO/+NAO pattern. Sometimes El Nino's have -EPO.. historically they have not but I contest that the sample size is smaller in this regard, it's little more could go either way being a 50-60N index.
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PNA was positive every month in 09-10. That is not showing +pna. PNA was +1.25 in Jan 10 and +2 in March 10.
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You are not going to get a deep EC trough with the Pacific like that. The Pacific is a more powerful pattern driver. They used to happen like that in the 1960s but not anymore. Model error/flaw.
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You sure about that? That seems kind of unbelievable. Would shatter some records. I know Tyhoon Dolphin recently got down to 5430dm or something in its core.
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Something to think of: With the aurora borealis making it so close to the equator for the first time in 500+ years, a few years ago, and this Record El Nino by +20% occurring 2 years after that, is there a connection? Are we possibly underestimating just how big this solar max was, or maybe the Earth's magnetic field is weaker? Solar Cycle +2 years before 2020 Just a coincidence? I know ENSO historically "evens out", and this one is "evening out" Nina's going back to 1998.
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TAO/TRITON has reached +10c in the subsurface! First time I think this has ever happened (someone correct me if I'm wrong). That's +18f. Wonder if we'll reach +20F.
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Thanks! It looks like Dec 1957 was +7.4 QBO and Strong Nino That's the only ONI>1.0, QBO>+6 analog pre-1979. Dec 1970 Mod Nina, -17 QBO. Sometimes strong -PNA patterns have prevailed in Dec in Nina/-QBO. I could see how this would have been cold if not for the massive Aleutian block - notice the +150dm -NAO. (QBO is Strat - so more AO connection).
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You can actually make your own custom index, factoring in global warming, which is about +0.2-3 for Nino 3.4. In other words, 0.0 neutral is now with global warming +0.2-3. The point of RONI is to even it out, so you can track mid latitude influences more, but there are a lot of extra guidelines with it I think that make it vary month-to-month. Just factoring in global warming skew is helpful for seeing what pure ENSO event is like. On the seasonal model forecasts, it usually shows the timeframe somewhere on the top of the map. It's usually 1 month, or 3-months. The CPC officially uses RONI: Climate Prediction Center - CPC adopts Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) for reliable, responsive monitoring and tracking of ENSO
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^QBO data only goes back to 1979, but add that and Dec is even warmer! I'm really curious to see what this Dec will look like.
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Dec-Jan ONI has higher correlation for Feb than Feb ONI. I don't disagree that El Nino's have been historically cold in Feb though. In fact, I would say the stronger, the greater the cold signal should be. 2018-2025 however was the most -PNA on record for Feb by almost +50%! I'd watch the PDO there.
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^Just Fwiw, the last 2 years a few runs the CFS has shown -38F anomalies in the NW, US for the month of Dec both times. It didn't happen lol
