Jump to content

Stormchaserchuck1

NO ACCESS TO PR/OT
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,384

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    6 straight months of -PNA ongoing. This Winter may be more challenging to forecast than your typical Nino.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^I think we are still "evening out" a strong 28-year period of La Nina: Before this year, Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. Since 1948, the tendency for reversal of multi-year ENSO patterns has been really strong. Here's the closest multi-year example: Only other period on record to have 5/6 La Nina's, until 2020-2026 (ONI):70-71: Moderate La Nina71-72: Weak La Nina72-73: Super El Nino73-74: Strong La Nina74-75: Weak La Nina75-76: Strong La NinaENSO tends to even out, historically. Here is what followed the 70-76 streak (ONI):76-77: Moderate El Nino77-78: Moderate El Nino78-79: Neutral79-80: Weak El Nino80-81: Neutral81-82: Neutral82-83: Super El NinoReally interesting that we didn't see another La Nina for 7 years after 70-76. Then again, it has also been really hard to go ENSO Neutral in any year: Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per RONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per ONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. I don't know that we'll see a Moderate-Strong La Nina snap back this time. Cold water is not really building in the western-subsurface. Weak Nina would be my guess but I could be wrong!
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really healthy look in the subsurface. Warm pool is extending much further west than 1997 at this time. This is a good El Nino to test everything against
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    I never mentioned climate models. I'm just saying the logic is areas further north and over the arctic are +2-3std greater than the tropics and mid-latitudes. So when a 11-year anomaly is centered so far south, and with much greater anomaly than the north, that's because something big is going on. A specific meteorological pattern. These jumps to you are like "points" or "thresholds" but I don't think it works like that. Maybe a small part, but there was a string in 1976-1983 with 4 El Nino's, 3 Neutral, and 0 La Nina's and that was followed by one of the most +PNA times decadally on record. Super El Nino's are not expanding the Pacific Hadley Cell to such an extent imo. Actually the most basic argument is that Super Nino-driven global max temp rises should be melting Arctic ice to a greater extent, and the opposite has happened since 2013. Imo, that's a big reason for the -PNA patterns, constant low pressure over the Arctic circle in the warm season. I agree that it will be interesting to see where we go from here. But I don't expect the main cause to be a northern and southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell expansion much greater than all other regions of the globe.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just think it's the science of pointing out things after the fact. If the 500mb rise had occurred in Europe that would be the "after a higher baseline jump effect". There is probably something more meteorological going on. I don't think a higher global temperature hones in primarily on the Pacific Hadley Cells.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    There is a -0.2 correlation with N. Pacific High area in July-Sept. It's not huge in the northern Hemisphere Summer but there usually is still some circulation effects. +AO by itself does correlate with -PNA High pressure
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Right - it's not as strong before 2016. If global temps were the main cause though, it wouldn't be over the Pacific Hadley Cells. It would probably be over the Arctic or at least some place north of 60N. South sees a dramatic dropoff in average anomalies. I'm pointing out relative anomalies vs the rest of the world. For the sake of discussion, you can't just say that wherever the warmth is occurring it is because of global warming. If coastal NA had the highest anomalies in +PDO, you would say that is because of global warming. The ENSO driving argument is more removed from GW than you imply. There is probably some other meteorological pattern in effect.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just your typical 5940dm -PNA block in El Nino. I think it has something to do with cold Arctic. Bluewave probably has a map that says that is record breaking for July. 90-day SOI is about to go lowest since 1983.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Orioles only 2gb of the wild card?
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    You can really see it in the SOI over the last 30 years. We are breaking it hard now however, but if the N. Pacific Hadley Cell was +SOI driven it should be reversing around now and that has not happened yet but it is mid-warm season Streak of the last 30 years really makes the current -26 30-day that much more impressive. I think I calculated something like 72% of months were +SOI since 1998.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Will definitely be interesting to see how it progresses through the rest of this year with Super Nino! Battle of forces! If the PDO holds neutral or negative through the Winter it's probably going back to negative after this year. I don't intuitively feel like we will see a lot of -500mb in the North Pacific this year, but I could be wrong!
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Honestly the pattern since 1998 looks like a Hadley Cell expansion, which you see in both the North and South Hemisphere, which usually points to equilateral Pacific as a main cause
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think there are global things in motion/phase, and you see this reflected in the PDO. I agree SSTs are secondary to air patterns.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO is less related to ENSO than people think. Maybe more so west-based events correlate, but east-based events primarily effect the North Pacific High
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another Aleutian ridge! Since the El Nino began, N. Pacific ridge vs troughs lasting 5 days more more: 6-0. July will likely be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've always wanted to do that. In Mt. Shasta, CA the mountain clears completely in the Summer, then in September/October huge amounts of snow start piling up on the top. How cool would it be to camp on top of that mountain when the first 4-8' falls? It's easy to climb to.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like that Southern Hemisphere version of PNA is coming along pretty nice. TT only has 2m, if someone has global 500mb anomaly for GEFS and EPS can you post the link? 384hr 12z GEFS
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Your Modoki Nino composite has cool anomalies in the east greater than warm anomalies in Nino 4. That's not accurate. Actually, a Modoki Nino typically has no negative anomalies anywhere in ENSO. +0.4c max in the west vs -0.6c max in the east is not an El Nino.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    July has been the wettest month of the year for the eastern 1/2 of country since 2017.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    5 straight days under -34 is pretty impressive 16 Jul 2026 1013.27 1018.25 -36.50 -25.58 -18.73 15 Jul 2026 1012.10 1017.65 -40.01 -24.45 -18.16 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 It looks like the last time the 30-day was below -30 was 1983. We are -25.58 Since 1905 30 day has only hit -30 twice. 4x since 1876.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Biggest difference I see is in the central-subsurface. That could mean two things: 1) The event trends more basin wide than east-based going forward (which seasonal models have) 2) There may not be a major La Nina snap-back for 27-28
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    With +QBO? El Nino by itself does disturb the Stratosphere PV
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's hard to assess without Daily Climate Composites page, but right now it looks pretty negative. July 15 is 50% of the way through, and I would say it's about ~-0.4 for DJFM NAO predictor.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Lowest 30 day SOI since 1997... almost 30 years. It's impact on the global pattern has been nothing very impressive so far however
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    SOI going wild right now.. up there in a top 7/8 event since the late 1800s per SOI now. 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 11 Jul 2026 1011.77 1015.80 -30.66 -23.06 -16.66 Currently lowest 30-day SOI since 1997
×
×
  • Create New...