Stormchaserchuck1

I haven't checked my index, but it's probably very positive.. that looks like close to +0.75 in that map (DJFM NAO). The cold over the southern Davis Strait and south of Greenland is a big part of it.

Japan might have enough of a linear trend to have been effected by a shifting of currents, but I don't think the SE ridge is. It's still hard to say, because the Pacific is still such an extreme ocean. If we were in +PDO and the Gulf of Alaska and West coast was really warm, you would probably be pointing that out as the "global shift". I think that all you are doing is pointing out the underlining warming.

I would say the climatological odds favor the African wave staying out to sea. We don't have a huge ridge over the top, but sometimes early in the season you can get a track like Andrew.

We had a strong +PDO wave 2014-2016, it got up there over +2 for a good amount of time. Many thought the phase could be shifting because the std of the +pdo at that time was pretty high, but it tanked a few years after the 15-16 Strong Nino. Looking back, it was just a blip, or an anomaly, in the 30-year trend.

No doubt the global temperature is rising exponentially, but I don't think a +0.4F change (after some Strong El Nino) creates all these bubbles of like +6-8f differences. That has a lot to do with the pattern. I don't think the 15-16 and 23-24 El Nino's were turning points that we are never coming back from, meaning like an amplified SE ridge in permanence or something. PDO and NAO decadal is, per statistics, 5x more likely to be cyclical rather than "random", given the 150 years of data that we have.

I think he's like 300 years ahead of time. I vision a map where the whole Hemisphere is warm, warmest at the Poles and NAO and EPO and warm underneath. That's the vision I think he's sticking to. We've had some real cold in the Midwest during -EPO periods the past several Winters. The global circulation still works.

-NAO's not correlating with an East coast trough in the cold season is not really a global warming point, besides the +temps that are everywhere. Starting in 2013, but really going back to 2007, -NAO's have been happening much more frequently with +epo/-pna, and +NAO's with -epo/+pna. Something is connecting the N. Hemisphere pattern. The Pacific is a stronger pattern and has generally produced stronger results. Now the last 2 Winters -NAO's have been happening with a CONUS trough. The real anomalies were Dec 2022 and March 2023, but we seem to be getting a little bit out of it the last 2 cold seasons.

Usually 60N/20N is a big marker.. storms that pass NE of it steer out to sea >90% of the time. If they go SE of it, it's closer to 50/50. Obviously early in the year the steering currents are more east to west.

Donsoutherland has recently posted a NAO-correlation map for the last decade, showing >0.5 correlation anomalies, everything taken into account. If he reads this, maybe he can re-post that work. It's still correlating. And it's correlating >75%. Pacific pattern effects us more, and it has overpowered the NAO but it's not some random occurrence. Again, Florida had 10" of snow.. which was the first time ever over 4" since the 1800s.

He's not getting that one. I also made up a historical composite of 20 analogs with that dominant anomaly, and it showed a slight SE ridge with near average temps in the Northeast.. in mid-late February that's 40s. Something right off the coast is going to effect us more than 90N.

We hit 80* on Jan 26, 2024, under a -350dm, +3-4 std +NAO. +NAO's were responsible for last Summer's heat too, and you can see how the ridge is under the Greenland trough this Summer as well. If the historical correlation is -0.5 for -NAO and +0.5 for +NAO, it's just recently been -0.2 for -NAO and +0.8 for +NAO.. but the overall flux pos/neg of the earth's circulation remains the same.. the changes aren't that great.

Until a October MJO wave messes up the whole system lol

That was a ridiculous -WPO in Feb 2014.. almost +200dm.

You can see how there was a parade of troughs though just below the Polar regions. Wavelengths tightened up and it put a ridge underneath of it, but there was some very cold air in the Midwest this last February. And Japan had a pretty cool Winter. Why do you think now we have somewhat permanent ridging in the mid-latitudes? You keep saying -5 AO, but it's simple wave physics: the ridge was too far north! That pattern is not a mystery to me.

A 90N ridge will create a trough most likely around 45N. Sometimes a stronger relative trough will happen at 45-50N, and on the east or west side of that there will be mid-latitude ridging. That's what happened in February. the North Atlantic trough under a 90N ridge (Atlantic trough at 45-50N) was -300dm, and for latitude/height, a greater anomaly. I get that the Pacific pattern looks more independent of the +AO, but it does correlate to -PNA

^Negative anomaly max is almost greater in that image! Why not say "The +AO is at least partially driving it"? The +AO that has appeared much more frequent after the major solar flares staring in May 2024. That's a big negative anomaly on your map, bluewave. Relatively though the ridge near Japan is probably 1.4x greater.

Yeah but if we are equal to a Weak La Nina in the 50s-70s, why not say La Nina? The relative index is relevant for Hadley Cell interactions, as the flux occurs more around the global temperature than with it imo

The big story this warm season (May-July) has been the +AO analogs I've been saying how cold H5 in the Summer isn't actually that bad, as the following Winters seem to have some good arctic air present. The roll forward of those top 20 analogs, which is big time ++AO, is not actually a warm look.. neutral to slightly below US Temps for Dec-March

It's just a little surprising overall.. there is a +15 to +45 day lag (at different times of the year) for -NAO, which typically delivers cold to the eastern US, but the surrounding times are apparently warm.

The extreme QBO fluctuations over recent years is very interesting. It will be interesting to see what ENSO does over the next few years. -QBO if it holds for the cold season has a warm Stratosphere correlation at about 0.3. That doesn't automatically mean cold though, as the composite of warm Stratosphere Winters is actually +temp anomaly for the Northeast.

It's a Hadley Cell expansion phase. The Hadley Cell has also been expanding in the Atlantic, and it looks like this is a long term phase (similar to cold-ENSO) that has lasted about as long as the current -PDO cycle (since 1998, +AMO has been since 1995). The Hadley Cell would have to shrink, allowing for more mid-latitude low pressures, which is usually more associated with +ENSO. Some have correlated it to the Solar, by which there may be a few year lag. We had record low sunspots 2003-2022, but an active solar cycle has occurred over the last 2 years.

If we are at the peak now, it may take some time to wind down. It started in 1998, so we are approaching 30 years. The thought is that it should start to come down over the next few years.. although it could break the historical trend and last longer.

PDO +time. Notice how its correlation increase the further in the year you go. Pretty uniform. Usually indexes aren't that uniform It seems to make a big jump August-October. Those maps are default positive phase (with both sides factored in), so a negative PDO would be opposite of those maps.

RONI should be pretty comfortable La Nina though? Like a -0.8 to -0.9 peak. That's similar to a 1950 year having ONI of -0.8/9. RONI has led for H5 correlations over ONI the last 3 Winters, at least.

The H5 would have to lead, which is what happened last winter. The theory with the PDO is that there is SST/pattern feedback, which I'm not sure I completely agree with, as the air may lead more than water. But "the PDO rising" is talking about a PNA-PDO connection, which you would actually be better off making a composite of Fall PNA analogs and running that forward. In late November last year the pattern shifted, and it was not a classic -PDO-like Winter until later in March. That's just saying, imo, that the PDO is not 100%.