Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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^Finally starting to get some N. Hemispheric response to El Nino
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One of the more healthy subsurface's you will ever see. The 30c mark extends down -100m! That's 86F. -
We are beating the previous high for this date by +20%!
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Well we had a 5030dm trough yesterday, and now models warm up the area north of Alaska to +250dm for several days. Really cold periods are reversing. Montana had snow in late June then it was an all time record high in Billings, MT, 111 degrees (beating their old all time record of 108) a few weeks later. DJF 25-26 was cold, then March 26 was record warm by the largest margin ever seen, same thing in 24-25. I don't think the long term mean can really go very cold right now, but we may get periods of below average. Check out the correlation since 2012 though. 2019 was the warmest summer and then 19-20 was the coldest Winter of the period 60-90N.
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Since 2017 the whole arctic (60-90N) is the leading indicator for Winter pattern 60-90N. It usually reverses.
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Nice post. Record breaking El Nino it is! This Winter will be an interesting data point! I love extremes, gives a lot of information.
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Yeah, give me a Super Nino STJ in -NAO/AO. I'm leaning towards above average snowfall right now.
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I'm loving the -500mb over the Arctic this warm season. 2024 and 2025 are actually good analogs there, and they both had Winter ridging 60-90N.
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Global warming is obviously occurring?
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So we are going to base this Winter on the 91-20 average? I can tell you right now that will be warm. I would rather do the most recent 30-years.
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There is a huge statistical misperception. The odds of getting warm 5/5 times is not that low. Record breaking Nino's should probably be warm realistically 65-70% of the time.
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Did we break any records today with the 500mb trough over the Arctic? It got down to 5030dm I think. I know at the end of last Aug we set an all time N. Hemisphere record for Aug at something like 4980dm.
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JJA ONI record since 1950 is +1.6c (centered around July 15) JAS ONI record since 1950 is +1.9c (centered around Aug 15) We are currently nearing +2.1c.. strongest on record for this date.
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Biggest one day jump possibly of the event so far. It's like the stock market when it goes down in a strong bull market.
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You would expect it, but the decadal -PDO is near a peak right now.. it's holding surprisingly strong. Nino 3.4 is +2.1c right now and the previous ONI record for JJA is +1.6c, and JAS +1.9c. So this is the Strongest El Nino on record at the moment.. yet we are starting off Aug with the 7th month of -PNA values in a row. That's what's keeping the PDO so low. In the cold season the North Pacific High starts reacting to ENSO more, so there is a good chance it will start trending more positive then, say like October, but the pattern right now otherwise is really strong in the N. Pacific. I think it's tied to warm season +AO, and this year is another -H5 over the Arctic.. which we've had so much of since 2017. Amazing that the Arctic ice melt record from 2012 has now held for 14 consecutive years in exponential global warming.
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Expand it to all PDO analogs.. +PDO is perferred Although we had record low -PDO in the Summer/Fall the last 2 years, and ended up having a cold Winter both times.
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^I wish. We're in a nasty 7-year trend in March
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I've just been looking at 500mb daily maps and we've had 4 good low peaks in the arctic this Summer. I think the actual AO index is not as positive as the -H5. PNA is recovering finally after a negative start to August. Let's see if it continues!
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Near record low arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept. Since 2012, it has flipped for the Winter almost every time. Would you guys take a repeat of 24-25 and 25-26 with a Super Nino STJ? I would. Should be interesting.
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-PNA may seem out of context in an El Nino thread, but I'm just describing what's happening now - this is the highest El Nino on record for the date, and right now it's not acting like previous Nino's. Will that change for the Winter? perhaps, but I wouldn't expect a monster -150dm N. pacific low in the DJFM mean.
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PDO is still around -3. 23-24 and 72-73 are the only analogs for both unless it starts rising fast.
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Wow! Keep in mind July 2025 currently holds the all time monthly PDO record in either state, with -4.2. Oct 2024 was the all time monthly record before that, since the mid 1800s, at -3.8. I know they edited the monthly marks so I want to double check but the site is currently down. Aug being possibly the 7th month in a row with -PNA is a big reason why it's dropping so much. Will it start effecting things different as we move toward the cold season? Perhaps, but -PDO decadal is almost as much of an anomaly as El Nino currently is. Having the two together like this is probably coming up on a 6std happening! Exciting!
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I'm surprised the N. Hemisphere pattern isn't going more +AAM like, which is a GOA low (usually around -100dm even in the warm season with +4 GLAAM), and a High south of Greenland, also approaching +100dm.
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Cool. I like those moving X-Y plots. There aren't enough Super Nino analogs. The database is too small, so common sense has to be used as to what it means in the northern latitudes. For example, many previous Super Nino's had a cold season +EPO and +AO/somewhat +NAO, which has less to do with ENSO. Super Nino effects the North Pacific High, primarily.
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Another big arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept.
