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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think it's a marginal setup at all..
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Feb-March's 2018-2026 so much more -PNA than the past.. like 160% of number 2. That's interesting! Maybe it has something to do with temps starting to get warmer after Jan 27th, and the start of the rise to spring right after? It's something interesting to watch this Feb-March too.. does the 8-year trend persist?
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's why I said it's extreme. It's extremely extreme coming up, too.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    We have had a smaller % of neutral setups.. the lowest DC's high temp in the Wintertime gets is 40F, Jan 27. Baltimore gets down to 39F. 2-3 weeks surrounding that it's mid 40s. We need "neutral" for marginal setups, not 3std -PNA's.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    So why is -PNA more extremely warm and +PNA more extremely cold lately? Dunno.. maybe it's something we aren't seeing. AGW isn't PNA consistency though.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's my favorite
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Dude we just had one of the coldest 3 week stretches in history, and it was the 2nd time that happened this Winter. It's not all lost omg! We are just in extremely bad Pacific patterns lately, in the wintertime. You're underestimating the Pac influence a little bit. More neutral is what you're looking for, not +450dm.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Pac ridge is about as unfavorable as a spot as it gets in the 20-25 plot.. it's a little further west in the 1970s, allowing some space for gulf of alaska negative anomaly.. our snowiest patterns are negative gulf of alaska, so those little differences are actually big.. it's fragile.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    All I care about is getting the forecast right.. why we don't snow anymore as the past is your own tangent. I don't think it's as big of a difference as you make it look, but I don't want to spend a lot of time arguing that.. since 2017 I've observed a downstream bias in medium range models with PNA. Adjustments and make a forecast accordingly, it has worked out so far. Want to guess what the high temps are on the storm day? 45 in DC? 42 in Baltimore? Feb 15-16
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    AMO? -AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    You've been pointing out anomalies, saying there is a chance. This is the Feb months SE ridge correlation to -PNA.. 48-20 is 73 years, so 73 points of monthly data. Breaking it down daily probably gives higher correlation numbers.. our mean temp in Feb in -PNA is Upper 40s, everything considered.. 1940s,1950s, and now
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Even so, it's a bad pattern by a long shot. Classic -PNA. It's warmed a little yeah, but the 2000s pattern does not favor snow when that >250dm ridge appears in the Pacific. Your map yesterday was really missing that anomaly. Pay attention to it more - it's a pretty good correlation, on both sides. medium range models do have a slight bias.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not a perfect pattern is +450dm -PNA Aleutian ridge and <5000dm in Alaska.. it's an extreme shift. If the PNA were like +100dm, could have snowed marginally? Sure.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    What we don't want to see in the long range is that -PNA ridge pinching off NW to cutoff over Russia, while a low comes underneath of it in western Canada and Alaska.. could flood US with warm air down the road if it evolves like this. Earlier it was looking like the Pac ridge was wanting to eventually go polar, but this is how models have trended the last few days.. Possibly if the MJO were to stay strong, it would support this pattern, going through Phases 3-6
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    GEFS and CFS say MJO as a driver doesn't get cold again until the 2nd week of March
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think the consistency of 10s and low 20s for highs and lows in the 0s.. for like a 3 week period down here is pretty impressive. I held 8" snowcover for 2.5 weeks, which is really rare. This happened without real strong upper latitude patterns, like a -NAO or -EPO, although the AO was severely negative:
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    12z EPS is at least trying to cool us down from the north for the last few days of February Unfortunately we need a little bit more of a cold anomaly for snow by then.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I was using imagebb, but some people said it was not showing up for them. So now I use Postimages — free image hosting / image upload You have to copy the hotlink to forums on the postimages site, and on the bottom right side of post under "other media", choose "insert image from url".
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice west coast trough. Really a strong -PNA pattern there, even when the low is well to our SW. 564dm heights going into PA is not what you want to see. The Pac pattern being in a strong state, means not much fluctuation downstream in future runs.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    The 1027mb High pressure moving off the east coast has nothing to do with it? This one doesn't need to be blamed on global warming. It's 12F right now lol and has been that way all Winter.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    528dm over the top is all you're getting here in the east. Most times the Pacific pattern pumps a SE ridge, like this time. Notice your energy wave in the middle of the ridge. Maybe at some point in the future the pattern will appear and I'll say no rain! and I'll be wrong! One day..
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice.. I hadn't had a snowstorm over 5.5" here until this Winter. Your Hudson bay/Baffin island block is +300-350dm. Pacific pattern is a little bit further west. Our biggest storms actually happen in a gulf of alaska low, so it's really a fragile difference, where exactly that pacific pattern is.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Actually what's next is <5000dm over Alaska, which is worse. Then a stronger -PNA evolves after that.. it gets progressively warmer and warmer, but the pattern change to tip us over freezing line is happening in the next few days.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think a uniform +PNA works just as good. Maybe in El Nino +PNA won't be as cold, but lately we've had some good opposite examples of -pna. It's just more uniform these days, on both sides, than a long time ago for whatever reason. I don't think it's a global warming issue besides some minor things
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's already flipping the script at Hr36
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