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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    EPS with a >5940dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands at Hr 360 It's completely backed of the <-250dm at D10.. now models have like -150dm max and the pattern only lasts 3-4 days
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Locally. I just had 3 consecutive nights in the 40s. No major heatwaves late Summer for the 3rd consecutive year.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nothing too unusual
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Well, 8 named storms and it's still September.. not bad. Shear in the Atlantic has been record high this season. I think the old days of 9NS/yr average, pre-1995, may be done.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Daily PDO has been tanking.. it's near -2 right now
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Under. Late Summer to September has been pretty cool.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would say October snow is a good thing. In 2002, it snowed here in October 4x.. I had 125" that Winter, easily best of my lifetime. It snowed all the way until early May 2003, patterns tend to be longer term.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAO's only inversely correlated month of the year to DJFM NAO is October.. opposite correlation.. the Pacific is linearly correlated at 57%, but sometimes in El Nino's a favorable Pac October shifts to unfavorable (+EPO) for the Winter. That might just be because of not enough examples though.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, seasonal models showing -200dm monthly +PNA in the N. Pacific doesn't seem likely. They are heavily ENSO-bias, need to be reprogrammed
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    As 40/70 Benchmark would say, the kiss of death for the Winter
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    1:1 correlation with Strongest El Nino on record. Record low ACE to date too.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    What happened to Mark Andrews 1yd QB sneaks? They worked so good last year, I think worked every single time. Not using it almost costed the game.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I guess minus La Nina's skews it warmer. US Temp pattern was definitely a bust but I don't see why the northern latitudes should correlate so much in the Summer. The CPC didn't have any below normal anywhere on their lead Summer forecast.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hmm.. looks closer than not to me
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino's are warmer Summers in Europe
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Let's talk about the odds for a warm December for the CONUS Strongest east-based El Nino on record +QBO -PDO Chance of beating the 91-20 average warm nationwide is probably 75-80% just generally What's the odds, 90% Some La Nina/-QBO's had huge Aleutian blocks, which flexed the SE ridge.. Im thinking that's how it could bust cold, Pacific driven not NAO
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Most historical Super east-based Nino's had Winter +NAO. A lot of the seasonal models have more -NAO this Winter.. I said it before, give me -NAO with Super Nino STJ anytime, regardless of the Pacific. It does makes sense that an El Nino would have more -NAO than 48-20 composite because it goes with a tendency to warm 10mb. But we have +QBO this Winter which is a counter to that. And we haven't had a true -NAO Winter in 14 years. But logistically speaking late Summer has been cool locally.. just like the last 2 years. It will snow this year, low odds of a Dec-Mar wall-to-wall torch like 97-98 imo
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Monster N. Pacific low finally.. -250dm. You never get -250dm on the D10 ensemble mean unless it's a special circumstance. https://ibb.co/6RK3BJMZ
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hopefully this can make it to the threads most liked post, instead of all that drama stuff
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    +11c has popped in the subsurface on TAO/Triton.. highest of the event so far.. still strengthening. Normal 60F water is 80F. That's why Charles Darwin chose the area for evolutionary thesis.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, the GFS ensembles have trended toward more +PNA in the long range.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    This may not be the classic El Nino pattern for October, but it is +AAM in the northern latitudes AAM cycles usually reverse every 40-45 days so I'd expect something non-El Nino like in mid November
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think the 1st one dropped 46" max over the Big island.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    3rd hit of the season for Hawaii!
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I was thinking it looks like a Modoki La Nina/east-based El Nino at the same time
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