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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Practice trial #1 [CPC long range outlook vs Natural Gas Futures price] Contract price at time of comparison: March '26 contract $3.159. Contract price at end of month(end of forecast period): $4.416 Total price difference: +39.8% Experimental predictor: 1-0, +39.8% [monthly] I will continue this in the future, when there is a significant difference between long range predicted temps and short/medium term predicted temps.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    CVX one of the best performing stocks, up 5.3% on the week, and 3.3% on the day. If you want to keep it secret, that's fine, but do you suggest there is a lag between NG price and CVX stock? That's something I would research. Understandable if you don't want to go into it. I imagine the CVX stock price rise will continue.. ?
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    They just keep going and going for this cold Northeast. Someone was saying this could be the first time all 3 Winter months were below average in the NE since 09-10 and 02-03. Natural Gas jumped another 13% today. I'm going to do a month-end report on the CPC Monthly outlook probability vs NG price later this weekend. It was a big success. Now it looks like that even carries through February.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Too bad, it's a beauty
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hard to say if it will be east or west-based, but an El Nino is developing in the subsurface
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looks like it. We were colder than average last Dec - Feb too, even though I don't know if all 3 months were below average.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    585dm in Salt Lake City in the dead middle of Winter! Quite a Winter they are having out there in the Rockies and West coast, for a much of the area it's the #1 warmest Winter on record to date (since Dec 1). Makes me nervous about a Stronger El Nino next year.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    AO is tanked; we are in a cold pattern for a while. I'd watch for when this starts rising up to neutral, for a bigger storm chance - around V-day or right after.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Is the mean Northern Hemisphere going to exceed +1000dm anomaly at 10mb on the daily? Sometimes the PV will split but it will be stronger than average on one side, if not 2 sides of the hemisphere.. those don't really translate to -NAO's +time. In February, the +10mb to -NAO lag starts at +20 days, and at the end of the month it's +15 days.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another picture
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    8.2" here now of snow/sleet a
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Heavy precip all the way back to Nashville. This thing has a lot of time to go still.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Heavy sleet, 14F. I just measured 7.8" of snow/sleet.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Starting to mix in with sleet now.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still all snow here, heavy snow, measured 7" so far.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    It was always one of my favorite things, I feel they could have done better though, making it more realistic. It just became about super sayians at a certain point and no real character or plot development. Loved the Namek and Frieza sagas. My facebook has been giving me clips of DragonBallSuper... it's actually pretty good, came out in 2015 I think
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Mushrooms enhance you though. Problem was I was too sensitive.. couldnt fall asleep, couldnt sleep. I actually retreated to the back of dark caves in AZ for some time to catch up on rest lol
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    DBZ? Always bro
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    The way I remember 1994, we haven't really had anything comparable since. I mean there was only the tips of grass coming through 3" of rock solid ice. Couldn't get my footing. Everything was encapsulated.. I wish we can experience something like that again.. -EPO and +NAO is the ingredients, which we almost have here.. if it wasn't for -3 AO it would probably be more ice and less snow.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I started posting on weather boards when I was 14 in 2001. Had some crazy trips 5-10 years back where I didn't sleep for weeks on end, but I'm good now
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I remember crawling on my hands and knees to get up my babysitter's yard to get to her house when I was 6 in 1994.. It was a solid layer of ice. Ice storms are so pretty! Out here in the country it looks scenic when the ice is glistening on the trees. We haven't had a good one in a while. Sleet, fz rain, whatever it is.. bring it!!
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z Hrr again looks like all snow Baltimore-north. Might stay that way for the duration as it looks like it transfers the coastal fast/south again. The RAP and Hrr specialize as short term models, better accuracy within 24-36 hours, but it looks like 12"+ Baltimore north.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    15z RAP is pretty far south with the ice/snow line fwiw. quicker/further south transfer to the coastal. Baltimore has 12" snow depth at hr51 and still quite a bit of storm to go.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Comparing the 18z Hrr 38hr to 12z GFS 44hr.. the whole trough is further SW along the west coast by a decent difference, from the NW to the Baja energy. Some things to work out here in the short term.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    I regret not trading it.. 1 futures contract would have profited something like +20k. CPC nailed it. Their long range forecast vs futures and commodities is something I am going to continue to keep track of in the future.. Or if I'm forecasting something that has volatility. I was before saying Natural Gas at $3 was cheap, and $4.50-$5.00 is the over/under mark for a cold Winter or not.... it just went into the "cold Winter" range.
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