Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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It doesn't skew things differently. Absolutely not. If Nino 4 was +1.7c, Atlanta might be -3 for the Winter. If Nino 4 is +3.4c, Atlanta may be -6 for the Winter. Everyone thinks it moves around anomalies which isn't true beyond 0.01% general warming things. -
Yeah -PDO is mostly counter-El Nino. Amazing the consistency in -PNA we are still seeing.
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It's the position of the N. Pacific low pressure. It happens right off the west coast in east-based Nino, and further west near the PNA region in west-based. Those maps I posted above are historical analog of Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4. I don't think strength of the Nino plays a roll, except being more of the same. Where it's based/dominant does though.
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CFS has a huge trend bias. I would like to see cooler subsurface waters start to appear. It significantly precedes. I remember seeing an image of Dec 1972 where the whole subsurface was extremely cold during Super Nino.
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July has been a really wet month since 2017, so it might have less to do with the El Nino and more to do with the pattern. We'll find out after this month I think.
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Cold 500mb lows spinning out over the Arctic circle for the next 15 days. In my opinion, until we break the Arctic Ice melt record from 2012, we are going to be in decadal -PDO. July has also been super wet here in this post-2017, 60-90N -SLP pattern. It will be very interesting to see what the Arctic pattern is next Summer after the Super Nino warms global temps, and the Solar Cycle wanes.
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Yeah Center might be one of the least valuable positions along with Punter. Ravens ownership has played a lot of Xbox Madden.
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6 straight months of -PNA ongoing. This Winter may be more challenging to forecast than your typical Nino.
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^I think we are still "evening out" a strong 28-year period of La Nina: Before this year, Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. Since 1948, the tendency for reversal of multi-year ENSO patterns has been really strong. Here's the closest multi-year example: Only other period on record to have 5/6 La Nina's, until 2020-2026 (ONI):70-71: Moderate La Nina71-72: Weak La Nina72-73: Super El Nino73-74: Strong La Nina74-75: Weak La Nina75-76: Strong La NinaENSO tends to even out, historically. Here is what followed the 70-76 streak (ONI):76-77: Moderate El Nino77-78: Moderate El Nino78-79: Neutral79-80: Weak El Nino80-81: Neutral81-82: Neutral82-83: Super El NinoReally interesting that we didn't see another La Nina for 7 years after 70-76. Then again, it has also been really hard to go ENSO Neutral in any year: Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per RONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per ONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. I don't know that we'll see a Moderate-Strong La Nina snap back this time. Cold water is not really building in the western-subsurface. Weak Nina would be my guess but I could be wrong!
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Really healthy look in the subsurface. Warm pool is extending much further west than 1997 at this time. This is a good El Nino to test everything against
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I never mentioned climate models. I'm just saying the logic is areas further north and over the arctic are +2-3std greater than the tropics and mid-latitudes. So when a 11-year anomaly is centered so far south, and with much greater anomaly than the north, that's because something big is going on. A specific meteorological pattern. These jumps to you are like "points" or "thresholds" but I don't think it works like that. Maybe a small part, but there was a string in 1976-1983 with 4 El Nino's, 3 Neutral, and 0 La Nina's and that was followed by one of the most +PNA times decadally on record. Super El Nino's are not expanding the Pacific Hadley Cell to such an extent imo. Actually the most basic argument is that Super Nino-driven global max temp rises should be melting Arctic ice to a greater extent, and the opposite has happened since 2013. Imo, that's a big reason for the -PNA patterns, constant low pressure over the Arctic circle in the warm season. I agree that it will be interesting to see where we go from here. But I don't expect the main cause to be a northern and southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell expansion much greater than all other regions of the globe.
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I just think it's the science of pointing out things after the fact. If the 500mb rise had occurred in Europe that would be the "after a higher baseline jump effect". There is probably something more meteorological going on. I don't think a higher global temperature hones in primarily on the Pacific Hadley Cells.
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There is a -0.2 correlation with N. Pacific High area in July-Sept. It's not huge in the northern Hemisphere Summer but there usually is still some circulation effects. +AO by itself does correlate with -PNA High pressure
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Right - it's not as strong before 2016. If global temps were the main cause though, it wouldn't be over the Pacific Hadley Cells. It would probably be over the Arctic or at least some place north of 60N. South sees a dramatic dropoff in average anomalies. I'm pointing out relative anomalies vs the rest of the world. For the sake of discussion, you can't just say that wherever the warmth is occurring it is because of global warming. If coastal NA had the highest anomalies in +PDO, you would say that is because of global warming. The ENSO driving argument is more removed from GW than you imply. There is probably some other meteorological pattern in effect.
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Just your typical 5940dm -PNA block in El Nino. I think it has something to do with cold Arctic. Bluewave probably has a map that says that is record breaking for July. 90-day SOI is about to go lowest since 1983.
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Orioles only 2gb of the wild card?
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You can really see it in the SOI over the last 30 years. We are breaking it hard now however, but if the N. Pacific Hadley Cell was +SOI driven it should be reversing around now and that has not happened yet but it is mid-warm season Streak of the last 30 years really makes the current -26 30-day that much more impressive. I think I calculated something like 72% of months were +SOI since 1998.
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Will definitely be interesting to see how it progresses through the rest of this year with Super Nino! Battle of forces! If the PDO holds neutral or negative through the Winter it's probably going back to negative after this year. I don't intuitively feel like we will see a lot of -500mb in the North Pacific this year, but I could be wrong!
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Honestly the pattern since 1998 looks like a Hadley Cell expansion, which you see in both the North and South Hemisphere, which usually points to equilateral Pacific as a main cause
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I think there are global things in motion/phase, and you see this reflected in the PDO. I agree SSTs are secondary to air patterns.
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PDO is less related to ENSO than people think. Maybe more so west-based events correlate, but east-based events primarily effect the North Pacific High
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Another Aleutian ridge! Since the El Nino began, N. Pacific ridge vs troughs lasting 5 days more more: 6-0. July will likely be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA
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I've always wanted to do that. In Mt. Shasta, CA the mountain clears completely in the Summer, then in September/October huge amounts of snow start piling up on the top. How cool would it be to camp on top of that mountain when the first 4-8' falls? It's easy to climb to.
