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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cansips really shifts the El Nino west. Looks dominant in 3.4. Not sure that's going to happen with the current orientation of the subsurface, and Nino 1+2 currently being +2.8c vs Nino 3.4 +1.3c. It looks like it actually cools the far eastern Nino regions between now and the Winter. Don't think that's going to happen with the ECMWF Seasonal forecasting the strongest El Nino on record. Also we haven't seen that "easy +PNA" over a long term period in the Pacific for a very long time.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    You have to wonder if something is keeping the arctic artificially cool in the Summer since record low levels in 2012. It makes sense - it will take 1 million years to create 1 million year old ice again. Probably not at least directly, but it is a thought that crossed my mind fwiw.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    June SOI finished with the lowest monthly reading since early 2016. Healthy El Nino ongoing Still not seeing that North Pacific response, however Pretty much the opposite pattern coming up ENSEMBLE LOOP
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Not sure it's as sure as that. Everyone is jumping on like that 5/5 were warm in some skewed logic of Super being a different entity from Weak. I think -SLP in the warm season that we have going now 60-90N supports more Winter -AO. There is a global temperature jump happening I think and that could bring Winter warmer just about everywhere, but I don't it's as ENSO-related as people think.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.8 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.5 0.8 2.0 2.5 1.8
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty good cold air correlation in Octobers in El Nino's historically: Counter point is PDO also has a high correlation in October - negative being opposite of map below
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    It was kind of rare to have that SE ridge with such a pattern over the Arctic and North Pacific I think the +NAO was actually the reason - that big negative anomaly exceed -400dm south of Greenland, that has less to do with ENSO
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Vs the 61-90 average seems a little weird.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Low pressure over the N. Pacific favors east coast troughing though. Of course if the negative anomaly spills into the West coast like 82-83 and 97-98, that pushes everything east. +AO kind of dominated the pattern in 82-83 though.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    This may surprise some people - Nino 4 is neutral in trend since mid-April
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    They just had a good snow event in the mountains of Montana!
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think the Arctic cold this warm season will serve as a catalyst to keep the PDO more negative in comparison to ENSO this year. It's a pattern. Still have July-Sept to go though, so it could change, but since the Solar Max it's been a pretty sustained Summer +AO pattern.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I also had a 7" and 11" storm last Winter. If it wasn't 14 degrees and sleet, the Jan storm could have been 20"+. Sometimes exact snowfall numbers are taken too literally regarding possibility and potential
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Flow can be more NW -> SE in the cold part of Nina's, so threading the needle is possible on the coast. +ENSO tends to be more borderline in wintery events, favoring I-95 or NW, as a trough digs to our west with storms.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cold ENSO/Strong -QBO gave us a cold December last year too. 2021 was the exception, but it works in reverse too (cold ENSO/-QBO is cold). Even in Dec 2021 there was a >+300dm block in the N. Pacific. Move that 250 miles NE and it would have been cold. Of course the Nov Stratosphere warming last year was the reason.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    The difference between Weak vs Moderate vs Strong vs Super Nino is the same. In weaker events, the ENSO signal is weaker so other things dominate more, more randomness. Caveat being that East vs West based event does make a difference.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think the PDO may start to trend positive decadally when the Summer Arctic ice catches up with its previous trend or starts "evening out all this warm season cold anomaly". What do you think @40/70 Benchmark?
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    The odds of a cold Winter at all in the mean (DJFM) is probably like 15%. For the US as a whole maybe 10%. It's not a hard forecast.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think El Nino's in general are colder than people think in the US Winter. Caveat being that Nino 1+2 dominating and being like +4c could be pretty warm, at least in the NW 1/2 of the country.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a good point about the North Pacific and -PDO. You can see the clear correlation here But how impressive is that low pressure anomaly over Arctic for 11 warm seasons now (2019 was the exception)!
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Summer cold in the Arctic since the 2012 arctic ice melt low has really been phenomenal! Anyone want to offer a theory on why that is?
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Baltimore city forecast Thursday Sunny and hot, with a high near 106. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 81. Friday A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny and hot, with a high near 106. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good chance for an -AO this Winter in my opinion! The correlation to reverse conditions there between the warm and cold seasons has been strong since 2012! I think the period looked at is through September though.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's the NAO. I think the folder code is always pna. Here's PNA: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    09-10 was big +PNA. It was actually +PNA every month from June 2009 to April 2010
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