Stormchaserchuck1

Usually 60N/20N is a big marker.. storms that pass NE of it steer out to sea >90% of the time. If they go SE of it, it's closer to 50/50. Obviously early in the year the steering currents are more east to west.

Donsoutherland has recently posted a NAO-correlation map for the last decade, showing >0.5 correlation anomalies, everything taken into account. If he reads this, maybe he can re-post that work. It's still correlating. And it's correlating >75%. Pacific pattern effects us more, and it has overpowered the NAO but it's not some random occurrence. Again, Florida had 10" of snow.. which was the first time ever over 4" since the 1800s.

He's not getting that one. I also made up a historical composite of 20 analogs with that dominant anomaly, and it showed a slight SE ridge with near average temps in the Northeast.. in mid-late February that's 40s. Something right off the coast is going to effect us more than 90N.

We hit 80* on Jan 26, 2024, under a -350dm, +3-4 std +NAO. +NAO's were responsible for last Summer's heat too, and you can see how the ridge is under the Greenland trough this Summer as well. If the historical correlation is -0.5 for -NAO and +0.5 for +NAO, it's just recently been -0.2 for -NAO and +0.8 for +NAO.. but the overall flux pos/neg of the earth's circulation remains the same.. the changes aren't that great.

Until a October MJO wave messes up the whole system lol

That was a ridiculous -WPO in Feb 2014.. almost +200dm.

You can see how there was a parade of troughs though just below the Polar regions. Wavelengths tightened up and it put a ridge underneath of it, but there was some very cold air in the Midwest this last February. And Japan had a pretty cool Winter. Why do you think now we have somewhat permanent ridging in the mid-latitudes? You keep saying -5 AO, but it's simple wave physics: the ridge was too far north! That pattern is not a mystery to me.

A 90N ridge will create a trough most likely around 45N. Sometimes a stronger relative trough will happen at 45-50N, and on the east or west side of that there will be mid-latitude ridging. That's what happened in February. the North Atlantic trough under a 90N ridge (Atlantic trough at 45-50N) was -300dm, and for latitude/height, a greater anomaly. I get that the Pacific pattern looks more independent of the +AO, but it does correlate to -PNA

^Negative anomaly max is almost greater in that image! Why not say "The +AO is at least partially driving it"? The +AO that has appeared much more frequent after the major solar flares staring in May 2024. That's a big negative anomaly on your map, bluewave. Relatively though the ridge near Japan is probably 1.4x greater.

Yeah but if we are equal to a Weak La Nina in the 50s-70s, why not say La Nina? The relative index is relevant for Hadley Cell interactions, as the flux occurs more around the global temperature than with it imo

The big story this warm season (May-July) has been the +AO analogs I've been saying how cold H5 in the Summer isn't actually that bad, as the following Winters seem to have some good arctic air present. The roll forward of those top 20 analogs, which is big time ++AO, is not actually a warm look.. neutral to slightly below US Temps for Dec-March

It's just a little surprising overall.. there is a +15 to +45 day lag (at different times of the year) for -NAO, which typically delivers cold to the eastern US, but the surrounding times are apparently warm.

The extreme QBO fluctuations over recent years is very interesting. It will be interesting to see what ENSO does over the next few years. -QBO if it holds for the cold season has a warm Stratosphere correlation at about 0.3. That doesn't automatically mean cold though, as the composite of warm Stratosphere Winters is actually +temp anomaly for the Northeast.

It's a Hadley Cell expansion phase. The Hadley Cell has also been expanding in the Atlantic, and it looks like this is a long term phase (similar to cold-ENSO) that has lasted about as long as the current -PDO cycle (since 1998, +AMO has been since 1995). The Hadley Cell would have to shrink, allowing for more mid-latitude low pressures, which is usually more associated with +ENSO. Some have correlated it to the Solar, by which there may be a few year lag. We had record low sunspots 2003-2022, but an active solar cycle has occurred over the last 2 years.

If we are at the peak now, it may take some time to wind down. It started in 1998, so we are approaching 30 years. The thought is that it should start to come down over the next few years.. although it could break the historical trend and last longer.

PDO +time. Notice how its correlation increase the further in the year you go. Pretty uniform. Usually indexes aren't that uniform It seems to make a big jump August-October. Those maps are default positive phase (with both sides factored in), so a negative PDO would be opposite of those maps.

RONI should be pretty comfortable La Nina though? Like a -0.8 to -0.9 peak. That's similar to a 1950 year having ONI of -0.8/9. RONI has led for H5 correlations over ONI the last 3 Winters, at least.

The H5 would have to lead, which is what happened last winter. The theory with the PDO is that there is SST/pattern feedback, which I'm not sure I completely agree with, as the air may lead more than water. But "the PDO rising" is talking about a PNA-PDO connection, which you would actually be better off making a composite of Fall PNA analogs and running that forward. In late November last year the pattern shifted, and it was not a classic -PDO-like Winter until later in March. That's just saying, imo, that the PDO is not 100%.

July PDO.. the lowest monthly reading on record, going back to the 1800s. Beating last October's record, which was -3.81

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I never got the ACE/Winter relationship. It seems a little dreamy. A caveat is there are probably macro factors that correlate the two variables. Last Winter we did have colder weather after a high Atlantic ACE, with some (although short timed) -NAO and -AO bouts. The top Winter analog years after high Atlantic ACE does have an unusually east-based -NAO Winter, but it could be because of not enough examples. I haven't heard of Winter cold coming after a low ACE season though, and I don't know that it will actually be a low ACE season.. the NAO/AO have been positive thus far, but long range models are trying to neutralize that going into mid-August. These positive AO periods the last 2 years have been complete shut down of Atlantic activity - but that's the macro variable, the +AO. It might be easier and a bit more accurate to run that variable forward.

The CANSIPS busted horribly on its July forecast from a 0.0 month lead, in terms of US temperatures. The Euro is a much better performing seasonal model, but I don't know when its monthly forecasts update. The Euro though performed really badly for last DJF, I'm surprised seasonal models don't do better.. they seem to heavily weight ENSO. The year before (23-24) the Euro kept showing cold H5 over the Mid-Atlantic for the Winter mean. We got almost no snow that Winter, and it was the warmest Winter on record for the CONUS. The -PDO/east-based El Nino analog composite for 23-24 worked very well, though.

We've had a really strong/consistent North Pacific High pressure pattern (-PNA), especially in February and March. It's a pattern, and is associated with cold-phase ENSO and PDO. The anomaly Feb-March 2018-2025, for a 8-year-consecutive period, actually breaks #2 on the all time anomaly list by +30%. Then in the Atlantic we have had 14 straight positive or neutral NAO Winters since 2011-2012. In that time, 18/18 Winter months (DJFM) with a NAO value >1.11 have all been positive [CPC]. We've had some -AO and -EPO periods during that time, which have delivered very strong arctic shots to the Midwest, but they have not been long lasting. Why is this pattern occurring? A possibility is the low sunspots 2003-2022, as that 20-year period had the lowest sunspots, since the 1800s. There might be a lag, so the strong rebound of Solar activity over the last 2 years may help change up the pattern going forward (my theory). We may also be in a decadal +NAO phase, which could last about 20 more years, just based on the wave fluctuations over the last 150 years. We also seem to be a the peak of a -PDO phase (cold ENSO-like), with October 2024 and probably July 2025 having the lowest monthly readings on record.. it could take some time to neutralize or change that long term state, which started in 1998.

August DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 2.0 2.3 2.3

Pretty good NE Pacific High this June-July Analogs Following September