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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'll go warmer on the August pattern This one has nothing to do with -NAO/AO
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looking like July is going to be the 6th straight month with -PNA (CPC) 2026 0.79 -0.56 -1.74 -1.26 -1.27 -0.50
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    June was AAO's 6th most extreme month on record, since 1979. 6/570. +2.506
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    You really think this is fully coupled? This is typically a La Nina pattern
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Current Atlantic SSTA is hopeful for -NAO bouts this Winter. Unfortunately the Pacific is as hard core -PDO as it has ever been (despite El Nino). I do think it is possible to get -EPO in El Nino. reverse 1895-1950 La Nina's are very -epo/el nino.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah let's see if we can get a +500dm -NAO. In Super El Nino STJ that is the best case scenario. Feb 1983 was -NAO as whole. We have however seen 13 straight +NAO Feb's. Let's see if we can break that lol 2014 1.34 2015 1.32 2016 1.58 2017 1.00 2018 1.58 2019 0.29 2020 1.26 2021 0.14 2022 1.68 2023 0.92 2024 1.09 2025 1.60 2026 0.68 1983 -0.5
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Again it looks like a nice thunderstorm pattern.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO was positive in 82-83 It was a +AO Winter however. A few things that I look at in the warm season, posted earlier in the thread are going toward more -AO this coming Winter. So that's a plus.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Oh, I thought it was recent. My mistake. Facebook things posted out of context. I assumed the record cold >80N was creating a ridge underneath. The cold this year up there is certainly impressive!
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just saw this Apparently it was verified by the WMO
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Did you see that it just hit 100 degrees in the Arctic circle for the first time ever, on the Russia side.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    +5c -PDO warm pool lol
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PDO warm pool might be a higher std than El Nino right now.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, historical composite is somewhat limited. There were plenty of +EPO/+WPO La Nina's in the 1895-1948 dataset.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's May-Sept. We are 42% of the way through. May was pretty neutral in N. Atlantic SSTA. Cold pool, -NAO orientation has only appeared in June and July.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wouldn't worry about that lol. -NAO in Super Nino STJ is ideal. Question is if the Pacific will still respond to decadal +EPO/-PNA pattern.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    That kind of SSTA orientation in the N. Atlantic right now favors a -NAO Winter.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    My point is they are one in the same - If you take the chlorophyll out of 1 green leaf, it is X amount of chlorophyll "Weak". If you take the chlorophyll out of 5 green leaves, it is still 5x amount of chlorophyll "Super". Everyone thinks ENSO events are a different entity in different strengths. That's not true at all. It's true that where they are based or dominant makes a difference, but a "Super Nino" is not actually different from "Weak Nino" except that it's impact - on the same thing - is greater.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    July ECMWF run.. it has a warm bias but wow
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Science forum bro. I don't think a -EPO can't happen.. that's more possible than historical analog suggests, but +PNA has been really hard to come by in this peak decadal -PDO or whatever is going on.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Finally! Let's see if it holds for more than a couple of days.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^I think it was you that made the good point that the S. Hemisphere Winter has high correlation, and a trough is usually dominant in El Nino's. We haven't seen that so far this year. An El Nino this strong should still show something vs recent climo imo.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hadley Cell contraction in July 1972, 1982, 1997. Not so much in 2015, 2023. We are still following closer analogs most closely
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe a little bit of an extreme bias If we continue to see no Hadley Cell contraction that would really be something!
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    That N. Pacific Low is in the perfect position for our historical analog snowstorms. And -NAO, just put a 50/50 low underneath like mitchnick said it would look really favorable. Unfortunately, seasonal models have a huge ENSO bias. We have not seen a North Pacific low for more than a few days since January, July will be the 6th month in a row of -PNA. Just not getting that pattern at all right now. In 2023 it was never occurring too, and seasonal models kept outputting the same default ENSO, which didn't verify.
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