Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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Kind of strange to think a +2.4c El Nino has no effect on the N. Pacific and N. America because it isn't winter. We haven't had a strong-prolonged N. Pacific trough in 11 years.. since Winter 15-16. That trend has carried so far in 2026.
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May and August have o-k N Pacific correlations. They were both opposite this year. 3 months US averaged below average temps for El Nino warm season. All 3 months were above average. It's not the strongest, but there are pattern effects that aren't happening since the El Nino developed in April. I agree that it's 3-4x more relevant starting in like Oct-Nov.
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The El Nino is just stagnant over the Tropics right now? The cold season has much higher effects, but you typically do see some things now, or whenever a +2.4c ENSO event is happening, warm or cold season. That we've seen 7-0 N. Pacific ridges vs troughs since the El Nino officially began is somewhat of a leading indicator.. instead of your usual -120dm winter n. pacific anomaly, I'd say it's more likely to be around -30dm for the DJFM mean. Pacific vs Atlantic hurricane season has been El Nino so far.
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It's passive aggressive behavior for real. I personally like more language diversity in geography.
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History says ~Sept 25-30 is the time when it should start to develop, then all the time that follows. Correlation is weakest in Sept, then 2nd weakest in July. Actually June-Sept is like -0.15 H5 correlation max in the NPH region. -
^+QBO/east-based El Nino/-PDO history says could be quite warm in Dec. That type of H5 over Greenland and Alaska would be a record-breaking warm pattern in the NE in this day and age if it verifies (we haven't actually seen that pattern much in the cold season over the past few years, it's a 01-02 pattern).
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My point is that if mitchnick is saying the El Nino is not yet effecting the pattern, then you can say that no La Nina has effected the pattern ever.
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US isn't even America. It's so stupid. Does US even have authority to rename things America?
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Is there any truth to this? Are we going to get a Lunar Eclipse tonight?
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El Nino is higher than any other El Nino at this time by +17% There has never been a La Nina that has made it to -2.4c.
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Precip this July-Aug has been very similar to the 2017-2025 composite
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The El Nino is currently +2.4c, which is higher than any La Nina ever on record at any time of year.
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Didn't realize that it was so warm! All El Nino minus all La Nina analogs for August before this year
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July and August near records for US warmth. Completely different from El Nino analogs, which are typically cool. All El Nino minus all La Nina analogs for August before this year
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15-16 had a monster N. Pacific trough That 14-16 was a +PDO spike really gives some weight to the pdo correlation numbers.
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Wow, you forecasted a -PNA in 23-24. Congrats on that, I think that's a really good forecast. PNA region ended up having an anomaly of +45dm for DJFM
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We haven't had a +PNA month in 7 months. Recent winters have skewed very ridgey in the N. Pacific relative to ENSO. I mean I don't think this winter will have a la nina pattern but I would definitely not expect a N. Pacific vortex like 97-98, 82-83, 15-16 in the mean.
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I think that El Nino favors -EPO more than the historical analog composite has. May and October are good examples of this. EPO runs more Polar though than Hadley-mid latitude Cell meeting place, so the overall correlation/connection is lower. More random than your average El Nino year. I'd say it's 50/50. There has been -H5 this Summer 60-90N which since 2012 has switched for the cold season almost every time. -AO I think can sometimes run into -EPO in short durations.
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Probably not, since the El Nino developed we have seen 7 anomalous-sustained PNA ridges vs 0 troughs. It's usually the other way around. 6 straight months of -PNA, and PNA for Aug looks to be around 0.0.
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STJ is strong in El Nino analogs. This is all El Nino's minus all La Nina's in the Fall -PDO goes dry in the Fall, which is probably what he's pointing to.
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What was your Winter forecast for the Pacific in 2023?
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I think you are hugging analogs a bit too much. I know 2 of these were Weak Nino's but here's the last 3 El Nino Winters since 2016.
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It's a SE ridge pattern in the cold season. Will be interesting to see if we get a SE Canada ridge like is typical of Nino's or if the US pattern gets washed out to something different this Winter.
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Nothing but Aleutian ridge as far as I can see on models ENSEMBLE LOOP
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In some months the PDO correlates higher with US Temperature than ENSO. In a few months it actually scores higher than the PNA!
