Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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Yeah, especially after Winter 15-16 2015 -26.70 -28.62 -28.15 -24.38 -12.34 2.18 7.45 10.96 12.07 13.38 12.79 11.39 2016 9.34 6.77 3.16 0.64 2.37 3.86 6.25 10.07 10.48 12.83 14.16 15.09 2017 14.92 14.78 14.35 13.88 8.01 -
Mark McGuire, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds were crushing homeruns when the league average was .270
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2.0 ONI in mid-July is pretty impressive. JJA ONI has never been higher than +1.6c [1997, 2015] since 1950.
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Why did the baseball league batting average drop from .270, 20-30 years ago, to about .245 now?
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I think they are re-adjusting some of the daily SOI's. I remember it being higher in recent days. This is quite a streak: 19 Jul 2026 1013.04 1016.50 -27.15 -27.71 -19.78 18 Jul 2026 1013.56 1016.50 -23.95 -27.02 -19.48 17 Jul 2026 1013.50 1016.95 -27.09 -26.34 -19.15 16 Jul 2026 1013.27 1018.25 -36.50 -25.58 -18.73 15 Jul 2026 1012.10 1017.65 -40.01 -24.45 -18.16 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 11 Jul 2026 1011.77 1015.80 -30.66 -23.06 -16.66 10 Jul 2026 1013.16 1015.45 -19.94 -22.84 -16.52 9 Jul 2026 1011.59 1014.45 -23.45 -22.68 -16.60 8 Jul 2026 1008.90 1015.20 -44.63 -22.32 -16.71 7 Jul 2026 1009.02 1015.35 -44.81 -21.68 -16.58 6 Jul 2026 1011.31 1015.45 -31.33 -21.34 -16.28 5 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.25 -35.46 -21.21 -16.03 4 Jul 2026 1010.84 1015.20 -32.69 -21.02 -15.72 90-day SOI hasn't been -20 since 1998.. first biggest El Nino event of the 2000s.
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+2 for Nino 3.4?
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I think they are arguing for +EPO correlation, scarred from recent Nino's I think. The map above has a negative 500mb right in the NPH region.. that's El Nino! I don't think the EPO is always positive in El Nino, it's further north so more variance. The 1895-1950 anti-La Nina is very -EPO in El Nino. -PDO does favor +epo/+wpo
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09-10 was the warmest Winter on record for Canada. It was also the most -NAO Winter since the 1800s. We had plenty of cold air down here, although the Pacific was favorable. NPH area
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^Yeah just keep in mind that double digit number of anlogs, and if you break it down to 3 types of ENSO events maybe a handful or two of examples... is just not very many statistically speaking. especially since I think there are larger scale global cycles that happen too (this current time period is not the same as a lot of 50-00 years imo).
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You can see from my correlation maps above where it's centered, very near the North Pacific High max
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Of course +QBO this Winter evens that tendency out.
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I just think the difference between west and east-based may be a little exaggerated because of NAO domain El Nino by itself supports warm Stratosphere, which over like hundreds of years is net -NAO I think for east and west based, although slight
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There is a slight +NAO skew in east-based Nino composites, which while probably still warm (especially with -PDO), it probably isn't as warm as historical analog suggests. Of course these days neutral is 85% chance of above normal Winter.
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That's probably when it finally has legit PNA-correlation! A lot of people think ENSO is linked to PNA but it's actually more linked to North Pacific High
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Oh, that's in the 2nd part of the post that you didn't highlight. That's why I thought you were only talking about strength. 02-03 was probably the 2nd strongest Modoki. My favorite Winter all time! Yeah it does go hand-in-hand strength and where it's usually based, that's because there are usually much cooler waters further east, much more room to warm in a stable system.
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If you put your heat in your living room on 80 degrees, the living room may warm to 75 and the kitchen 70. If you put your heat in the living room on 90 degrees, the living room may warm to 85 and the kitchen 70. lol Everyone thinks the kitchen goes to 80 degrees.
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It doesn't skew things differently. Absolutely not. If Nino 4 was +1.7c, Atlanta might be -3 for the Winter. If Nino 4 is +3.4c, Atlanta may be -6 for the Winter. Everyone thinks it moves around anomalies which isn't true beyond 0.01% general warming things.
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Yeah -PDO is mostly counter-El Nino. Amazing the consistency in -PNA we are still seeing.
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It's the position of the N. Pacific low pressure. It happens right off the west coast in east-based Nino, and further west near the PNA region in west-based. Those maps I posted above are historical analog of Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4. I don't think strength of the Nino plays a roll, except being more of the same. Where it's based/dominant does though.
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CFS has a huge trend bias. I would like to see cooler subsurface waters start to appear. It significantly precedes. I remember seeing an image of Dec 1972 where the whole subsurface was extremely cold during Super Nino.
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July has been a really wet month since 2017, so it might have less to do with the El Nino and more to do with the pattern. We'll find out after this month I think.
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Cold 500mb lows spinning out over the Arctic circle for the next 15 days. In my opinion, until we break the Arctic Ice melt record from 2012, we are going to be in decadal -PDO. July has also been super wet here in this post-2017, 60-90N -SLP pattern. It will be very interesting to see what the Arctic pattern is next Summer after the Super Nino warms global temps, and the Solar Cycle wanes.
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Yeah Center might be one of the least valuable positions along with Punter. Ravens ownership has played a lot of Xbox Madden.
