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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    My point is they are one in the same - If you take the chlorophyll out of 1 green leaf, it is X amount of chlorophyll "Weak". If you take the chlorophyll out of 5 green leaves, it is still 5x amount of chlorophyll "Super". Everyone thinks ENSO events are a different entity in different strengths. That's not true at all. It's true that where they are based or dominant makes a difference, but a "Super Nino" is not actually different from "Weak Nino" except that it's impact - on the same thing - is greater.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    July ECMWF run.. it has a warm bias but wow
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Science forum bro. I don't think a -EPO can't happen.. that's more possible than historical analog suggests, but +PNA has been really hard to come by in this peak decadal -PDO or whatever is going on.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Finally! Let's see if it holds for more than a couple of days.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^I think it was you that made the good point that the S. Hemisphere Winter has high correlation, and a trough is usually dominant in El Nino's. We haven't seen that so far this year. An El Nino this strong should still show something vs recent climo imo.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hadley Cell contraction in July 1972, 1982, 1997. Not so much in 2015, 2023. We are still following closer analogs most closely
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe a little bit of an extreme bias If we continue to see no Hadley Cell contraction that would really be something!
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    That N. Pacific Low is in the perfect position for our historical analog snowstorms. And -NAO, just put a 50/50 low underneath like mitchnick said it would look really favorable. Unfortunately, seasonal models have a huge ENSO bias. We have not seen a North Pacific low for more than a few days since January, July will be the 6th month in a row of -PNA. Just not getting that pattern at all right now. In 2023 it was never occurring too, and seasonal models kept outputting the same default ENSO, which didn't verify.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    It would be nice to get a N. Pacific trough at all, for all the models showing this for the Winter
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think a Winter -EPO El Nino is impossible. Further north it's more random than the mid-latitudes and the historical analog composite is probably biased to +epo (same with +ao and +nao of super Nino's). The warmth is definitely winning the battles in 2026 so far, however.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Will it show the lowest DM ever recorded in US?
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino who? ERA5 record highest 500mb height over the CONUS is 6027 gpm (21 Aug 2023)
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Northern Hemisphere pattern continues to disconnect from ENSO
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    August will be a good test
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    What's their all time high record low (anyone know?) Imagine if it was July 27!
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think we've seen a North Pacific low anomaly for more than a couple days since the event began.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah CPC always had above average temps for the east coast for the Summer and you could kind of intuitively tell that it would be such. The +603dm that some models are showing for the Rockies though is the typical -ENSO pattern that we have seen for the last few decades. June-July for warm Nino 1+2:
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't think it's impossible to have -EPO during El Nino's. Historical analogs are probably too +EPO (further north in latitude is more of a "random point" than like the PNA and NPH). If you look at the reverse of 1895-1948 La Nina's, it's very -EPO/WPO.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think that's a fallacy. There aren't enough examples and NAO/AO has been skewed more positive on Super events (which is a more random point). You have to go back to the physical mechanics of El Nino - Weak vs Moderate vs Strong vs Super is the same. Difference of course being whether it's east or west based, but I think if it was a +3.5c Nino 4-based El Nino people would be saying blowtorch
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    El Nino is just not beating out this North Pacific pattern. Last +PNA month was January
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    CANSIPS also has a completely different orientation for the Winter. It has Nino 3.4 dominant, and 1+2 cooling between now and then. I don't think these models are right, the subsurface orientation is east-based.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    98 out here in the woods
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cansips really shifts the El Nino west. Looks dominant in 3.4. Not sure that's going to happen with the current orientation of the subsurface, and Nino 1+2 currently being +2.8c vs Nino 3.4 +1.3c. It looks like it actually cools the far eastern Nino regions between now and the Winter. Don't think that's going to happen with the ECMWF Seasonal forecasting the strongest El Nino on record. Also we haven't seen that "easy +PNA" over a long term period in the Pacific for a very long time.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    You have to wonder if something is keeping the arctic artificially cool in the Summer since record low levels in 2012. It makes sense - it will take 1 million years to create 1 million year old ice again. Probably not at least directly, but it is a thought that crossed my mind fwiw.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    June SOI finished with the lowest monthly reading since early 2016. Healthy El Nino ongoing Still not seeing that North Pacific response, however Pretty much the opposite pattern coming up ENSEMBLE LOOP
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