Stormchaserchuck1
-
Posts
5,475 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
-
Cool. I like those moving X-Y plots. There aren't enough Super Nino analogs. The database is too small, so common sense has to be used as to what it means in the northern latitudes. For example, many previous Super Nino's had a cold season +EPO and +AO/somewhat +NAO, which has less to do with ENSO. Super Nino effects the North Pacific High, primarily. -
Another big arctic circle vortex occurring over the next few days. <5100 in the heart of Summer. Since the May 2024 aurora borealis way far south, 2024, 2025, and 2026 have all had the same +AO warm season pattern! It usually carries through Sept.
-
CANSIPS has the El Nino way too far west. Further north in the EPO domain has less to do with ENSO though, and lot of the colder temps on model are from ridging 60-90N on the Pacific side. A further east El Nino event would correlate more with trough in GOA, vs the spread out +PNA that it's showing with Nino 3.4 based El Nino. Even though it's not as cold, our biggest storms happen with GOA trough. Let's see it develop at all first though, the first half of Aug is projected to be the 7th consecutive -PNA month.
-
The fact that the PDO has dropped -2 during the time of Nino 3.4 warming +2.4 has to be some kind of record too, for both sides (Nina+PDO too). It might be a 5-6std event.
-
97-98 had negative heights in Alaska. CANSIPS has +heights there. ECMWF I think is completely different, showing +EPO for the Winter.
-
Why does the CANSIPS have the El Nino continue to be centered so far west? That's not the way it's developing or is now. +6c in Nino 3.4 is pretty extreme. Nino 1+2 is currently twice as high as Nino 3.4.
-
CANSIPS has the El Nino much further west than it's developing.
-
August DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.8 1.0
-
+9c has popped in the subsurface on TAO/Triton for the first time of this event! It's warming pretty rapidly too, we may see a +10c in a couple of days. That's +18F, so if the water is usually 62F, it's now 80F.
-
Yeah, I thought we were talking about ENSO. 1987 is a really good find, as that was one of the most El Nino Summers on record, JJA ONI was +1.5c, all time record for JJA is +1.6c
-
No one takes it seriously though, because it's used so often. It's a good warning for a thunderstorm coming, I guess, which most people react to.
-
Yeah, the real connection is with global temperatures. A huge trough over the North Pacific is necessarily Winter disaster for the east coast.
-
*defend the system at all costs* lol I find it's a good topic to discuss here. They are just making people aware of a thunderstorm. It's less about severe intensity these days. We rarely get a severe storm compared to the Midwest though anyway. Not sure why there's near an equal number of warnings issued west to east.
-
People think Super Nino means warm too automatically. The NAO/AO play a role, and if you map N. Pacific 500mb anomalies historically with Super Nino's you will see a N. Pacific trough placement in the cold season where it is usually doesn't extend a 2nd wave ridge so far east.
-
Nothing defies the laws of physics lol. July will be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA, and projections through August 15 put it about -0.5 for the month by then. Do we make 7 in a row?
-
Not sure what you're referring to here. Bluewave just made a good post, showing not a 5 degree difference in the July map, but 180 degrees, opposite. Even if we correlate with cooler conditions for a short time, I don't know that it will sustain. LR CPC outlooks are warm.
-
I wouldn't call a little -0.25 area on a 324hr map "El Nino taking over the Hemisphere".
-
Severe wx warnings never verify here, and every organized storm has a STW these days. I think I've had 43 severe storms warnings since my last severe storm (wind).
-
Most Super El Nino's in history had a +AO/+NAO. It's not actually as correlated as that, so the sample is biased a little warm.
-
^This is going to be about the best El Nino/-PDO analog we are ever going to get. You can probably also flip this Fall/Winters anomalies around in the future for La Nina/+PDO
-
There's a lot of studies connecting things. Luckily we have data to see if it's backed up or not. I do have to admit, you were right about the +PMM leading to an east-based Nino though. The limited examples said Nino 3.4 based and that has not happened over the last few months. One of those things where there weren't enough samples to make that call and you had to use logic or common sense, the +PMM/Nino 1+2 warm worked pretty well, good job
-
Just really pretty muted. If anything the orientation of precip is more La Nina like for +QBO. You are going to get some colors when it's only 64 years, random.
-
Be careful connecting QBO to STJ, as the QBO is a Stratosphere wind oscillation. The correlations with the troposphere run pretty low, AO-correlation being the highest.
-
Subsurface is looking like we're going to pop a +9c soon on TAO/Triton. It's warming currently as the Kelvin wave moves east. That would put us ahead of 1997.
