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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC going with some Summer heat leading up to July 4
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    +1.4 on Tropical Tidbits
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Correlation between May-Sept SSTA and Nov-March NAO. Edit: I actually have it in reverse, I should have done lag instead of lead. Here's the +3-6 month correlation: This means that for a Winter -NAO you want cold water in that pool south of New Foundland
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Preceding Atlantic SSTA for following cold season NAO I find May-Sept is the best because it has that positive correlation around Greenland which you can play vs SSTA south of New Foundland
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just make sure it doesn't spill over into the Indian Ocean and produce a +WPO
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another interesting thing will be the Feb-March PNA. This 9-year period is the most extreme anomaly for any 9-year period on records over the last 120 years.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we are the furthest thing from seeing west-based Nino patterns decadally, despite general warming in Nino 4. Another question is if the North Pacific High weakens this year. It's like a 5 std "PDO" vs 5 std east-based El Nino. Interesting!
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would love a -NAO with Super Nino STJ. Unfortunately, something like 14 Winters in a row have been +NAO (CPC). AO going negative has been easier to achieve. We will also likely have strong +QBO which strengthens the Stratosphere PV.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    It does correlate with following Winter NAO. Right now the Atlantic SST index is slightly negative Here is what you're looking for (default of map is positive phase, with both sides considered) Notice the Atlantic tripole. That's a high correlation for SSTA.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Finally getting that El Nino below average temps around the Great Lakes
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Might be another -AO vs +NAO type of scenario, but it's still early. Stronger El Nino going forward might disrupt the consistency over the Arctic, which is imo Solar related.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Should be interesting to see how closely we follow 2015 when the QBO switches. I agree that it's the best ENSO/QBO combo. 23-24 and 72-73 look like good ENSO/PDO matches, although this one will probably be a stronger Nino. And of course 1997 is taking the lead in the subsurface. Next year we will start descending into more of a Solar Min.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since the Solar max in 2024, 3 straight Summers, or in this case early Summer, has had big time cold over the Arctic 60-90N relative to the global warming. I'm thinking that we are pretty close to 2024, 2025 so far.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm really starting to miss the Daily Climate Composite maps, as current SSTA configurations could start giving us clues about the cold season NAO and WPO, and SLP maps over the Arctic, an indicator of cold season AO.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here's an interesting stat: 13 straight February's with +NAO (CPC). 10/13 have been >+1.00. For comparison, our last Winter month (DJFM) with any monthly NAO <-1.11 was Dec 2010.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Strongest on record, since the mid 1800s.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    65-66 would have been well above normal if it wasn't for strong -NAO. Not saying we can't have -NAO this Winter, it's more random vs ENSO
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Best I could do is 20c isotherm depth, but here's most recent day vs that day in 1997 Depth average temp Edit: I found 1997's full subsurface profile
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Going to be a really Super Nino. +8C has appeared in the subsurface. I think only 1997 matched this. I love strong events - because seeing how the global pattern responds gives indications about the current state of things.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    +8C! How healthy does this look (also notice there's no major cold water building in the west)?
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Long range models constantly had a 500mb trough over the Mid Atlantic, including the Euro. This held all Summer/Fall then in the Winter the long range Euro weeklies were constantly showing the same pattern, a trough over the Mid Atlantic. It didn't work out - 23-24 was the warmest winter on record for US.
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Euro weeklies have it around the 2nd week of July
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    So much for everyone saying we can't have Super Nino's so close together. That's what I want to stress with a lot of this ENSO stuff, historical data isn't extensive and different periods of time have different conditions that are not universal constants.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Everything is always green. We haven't been in a true drought since 2002.
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