Stormchaserchuck1

All I care about is getting the forecast right.. why we don't snow anymore as the past is your own tangent. I don't think it's as big of a difference as you make it look, but I don't want to spend a lot of time arguing that.. since 2017 I've observed a downstream bias in medium range models with PNA. Adjustments and make a forecast accordingly, it has worked out so far. Want to guess what the high temps are on the storm day? 45 in DC? 42 in Baltimore? Feb 15-16

AMO? -AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j

You've been pointing out anomalies, saying there is a chance. This is the Feb months SE ridge correlation to -PNA.. 48-20 is 73 years, so 73 points of monthly data. Breaking it down daily probably gives higher correlation numbers.. our mean temp in Feb in -PNA is Upper 40s, everything considered.. 1940s,1950s, and now

Even so, it's a bad pattern by a long shot. Classic -PNA. It's warmed a little yeah, but the 2000s pattern does not favor snow when that >250dm ridge appears in the Pacific. Your map yesterday was really missing that anomaly. Pay attention to it more - it's a pretty good correlation, on both sides. medium range models do have a slight bias.

Not a perfect pattern is +450dm -PNA Aleutian ridge and <5000dm in Alaska.. it's an extreme shift. If the PNA were like +100dm, could have snowed marginally? Sure.

What we don't want to see in the long range is that -PNA ridge pinching off NW to cutoff over Russia, while a low comes underneath of it in western Canada and Alaska.. could flood US with warm air down the road if it evolves like this. Earlier it was looking like the Pac ridge was wanting to eventually go polar, but this is how models have trended the last few days.. Possibly if the MJO were to stay strong, it would support this pattern, going through Phases 3-6

GEFS and CFS say MJO as a driver doesn't get cold again until the 2nd week of March

I think the consistency of 10s and low 20s for highs and lows in the 0s.. for like a 3 week period down here is pretty impressive. I held 8" snowcover for 2.5 weeks, which is really rare. This happened without real strong upper latitude patterns, like a -NAO or -EPO, although the AO was severely negative:

12z EPS is at least trying to cool us down from the north for the last few days of February Unfortunately we need a little bit more of a cold anomaly for snow by then.

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Nice west coast trough. Really a strong -PNA pattern there, even when the low is well to our SW. 564dm heights going into PA is not what you want to see. The Pac pattern being in a strong state, means not much fluctuation downstream in future runs.

The 1027mb High pressure moving off the east coast has nothing to do with it? This one doesn't need to be blamed on global warming. It's 12F right now lol and has been that way all Winter.

528dm over the top is all you're getting here in the east. Most times the Pacific pattern pumps a SE ridge, like this time. Notice your energy wave in the middle of the ridge. Maybe at some point in the future the pattern will appear and I'll say no rain! and I'll be wrong! One day..

Nice.. I hadn't had a snowstorm over 5.5" here until this Winter. Your Hudson bay/Baffin island block is +300-350dm. Pacific pattern is a little bit further west. Our biggest storms actually happen in a gulf of alaska low, so it's really a fragile difference, where exactly that pacific pattern is.

Actually what's next is <5000dm over Alaska, which is worse. Then a stronger -PNA evolves after that.. it gets progressively warmer and warmer, but the pattern change to tip us over freezing line is happening in the next few days.

I think a uniform +PNA works just as good. Maybe in El Nino +PNA won't be as cold, but lately we've had some good opposite examples of -pna. It's just more uniform these days, on both sides, than a long time ago for whatever reason. I don't think it's a global warming issue besides some minor things

It's already flipping the script at Hr36

Positive PNA is working, look at how cold January was. And Jan 2025 in +PNA there was 10" of snow in Florida.. our deep freeze we just had and are still experiencing is heavily +pna driven! Now in the next few days the Pacific does a fast pattern flip.

I've never seen a +450dm N. Pacific High and negative heights in Alaska and snow!

PNA has highest correlation with our temps in January (0.40 correlation) and February (0.35 correlation). It has a 0.15 correlation in December and March.

Well yeah, there are 6 main patterns: 1. WPO 2. EPO 3. Gulf of Alaska 4. PNA 5. NW-based NAO (Could call it AO) 6. south-based NAO Most impactful to our temps is EPO.

I don't know why, but the PNA is more uniform now than it was in the 1960s and 1970s. 3-wave patterns that almost always carry through. I get this from tracking just about every Winter since 2017. I've said it before, storms that models have snow around Day 7-8 with a strong -PNA or +EPO end up rain >90% of the time. Maybe the jet stream is north, maybe it's something with the AMO, but I don't see this storm threat as a close call at all. And I know as we get closer it will trend toward more of a snow miss and rain or nothing. Now if we end up 30 degrees and sunny on that day, I will say you were right - the SE ridge was not underestimated, but that's a strong anomaly in the Pacific! It's not just PNA, it's like 3 standard deviations. In March we get more neutral heights with -PNA but in Feb the SE ridge correlation is still pretty strong: [default of map below is positive, so negative pna is opposite]

If you plot N. Pacific ridges most extreme, in that spot, there is a Day-0 effect. I've done it before, gone through the whole dataset and made custom indexes. There is a Day-0 correlation. It's strongest 2-3 days later, but there are rising heights in the SE right as the N. Pacific ridge starts setting up. Plot it sometime. Either way though, the PNA is going negative in the next few days.

We have -PNA 3-4 days before that, it's not +450dm, but there is a ridge with trough over top. You see this starting to effect us in the next few days, as we warm up to 40s in +EPO. After that, I'm going to say there isn't any cold air reinforcement, it's not actually 1-2-3 with WC trough either, sometimes you will have a SE ridge without the 2nd part, but either way there is WC trough to some extent after 1st part of PNA establishes. It's just not a good pacific pattern man. It's not because of "our luck and global warming", it's a really easily identifiable pattern anomaly in the pacific.

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