Stormchaserchuck1

It's kind of hard to explain the 1980s cold phase otherwise. We have seen, on record, 5 swings between positive and negative, each spanning about the same amount of time. I think recent +AMO in comparison to global SSTA does look about even though. In 2023 and 2024 the Atlantic was warmest on record, and that fit a typical std a the peak of an AMO cycle. Would I say that the 2030s and 2040s will probably be -AMO, or cold Atlantic SSTA? lol, probably not. But I do think it could come down to near average for a few decades, or at least stop breaking records. That's one thing I honestly have to read more up on.

Well -NAO's are happening much more frequently during, or after, Solar Min's than Solar Maxes. We had a Solar Max until Summer 2025, so there is actually a 0 to +4 year lag after Solar Max for cold season +NAO (0.25 correlation, or 62.5% of the time), and a 0 to +4 year lag after Solar Min for cold season -NAO (0.25 correlation, or 62.5% of the time). The lag after Solar Cycle has us in +NAO probability until Summer 2029.

In January 2024 we got some snow events when the NAO went negative. In stronger El Nino's with a big low pressure in the N. Pacific, a -NAO could be the difference between nothing and a big one. I just don't think we are there with the NAO yet at least consistently, maybe in 5-10 years..

Lowest Winter DJFM NAO since 10-11 was -0.24 mean. 13/14 years positive. 19/19 months of >1.11 all positive. We just need to break that. I think it's somewhat decadal.

In the Summer I was seeing that really cold 500mb 60-90N and negative SLP (large -8 anomaly over the whole arctic circle June to August) -- I was seeing that these things strongly preceded -AO Winter's. It was a really strong signal, like the plus and minus side has hit every time since 2012. So I was bullish on this Winter for thinking it would be mostly -AO. You know -AO is our best snow pattern. It is turning out to be more of a -AO Winter, but the STJ has been dry up to this point. It does look like after Jan 21/22, it will get wetter. I'm not ready to say this Winter one side of a fail coin, because I think there is high potential Jan 23 - Feb 10. We might even do average snowfall by then. 384hr long range ensembles are showing an east+PNA, which you know correlates with our greatest snowfalls. Let's see how that 3 week period mid-Winter does, even if models aren't showing much right now. Besides that, the lowest Baltimore's average high goes to is 38F on Jan 27, and DC has an average high at the lowest point of 40F. average x average is still not good enough. So we can fail on both sides, if more extremes aren't being met. Our last -PDO was with -NAO, this one is very +NAO. Kind of a big difference for coastal SLP. I would like to see a west-based El Nino like 02-03 or a El Nino/-QBO like 09-10.. now 23-24 was El Nino/-QBO but it was very -PDO and an east based event. east-based El Nino's and -PDO are actually the warmest Winters for the CONUS since 1950.

I'm a little scared that if we do an El Nino next year it will be warm. These last 2 cold Winters, 24-25 and 25-26, are not because of a -NAO decadal, or +PDO decadal. They are negative AAM tendency propagating toward the Pole. Sometimes that happens in La Nina's, especially well into a decadal state of many events. Recent El Nino's have shown a tendency to warm SE Canada, as 7/8 (after this year 7/9) recent +WPO Winter's comes into effect. If we were well into the cold-phase NAO I would feel better, but we are not, and there is a +0-4 year lag after a Solar Max for more +NAO conditions. -PDO, if that holds, -PDO and El Nino is also a warm composite.

6z GFS a miss 2" for Richmond - Va beach

6z NAM has a kicker diving into the Great Lakes It's close though.. might do it We need more wave spacing or 1st wave to be primary energy.

0z EPS is actually real cold Jan 26-29

Nice pattern. Not real strong anomalies, but things are where you want them for cold/snowstorms right in the middle of Winter.

Probably a wintery pattern shaping up. Here is the end of 0z GEFS. Nice cold, also looks like some more +PNA getting toward the end of January. My theory that central-ENSO-subsurface warmth (Kelvin wave) correlates with N. Pacific +PNA in the now-time is verifying, at least this time around.

0z NAM vs 18z GFS lol

NAM is definitely pushing the trough further west, near the Rockies at 51hr. A little flatter out ahead of it though.

Fwiw 0z Hrr 30hr vs 18z GFS 36hr

My friend said there's a report of 6" NW of Detroit. I would guess it's a deeper 500mb as the low looks organized on radar. See how it does for the later storms in the next few model runs..

Today's storm is busting much snowier in the Detroit area. They were suppose to get flurries, and now have 4"

One in the same lol!

Are you cliff diving because of 18z runs? I couldn't believe when I saw 18z, I haven't checked for a day, and now there is a low from the gulf coast up the coast! It even gives Florida panhandle snow again! Very positively surprised. +PNA storms don't vanish as easily as -PNA There may also be snow for the Patriots home game Sunday

See what happens when the PNA goes positive low pressure on the coast correlation Notice how it's much higher than forecasted too.. 14 day had it at neutral.

February before an El Nino the next year

I don't think the pattern is like 22-23, the Strong Nino in 23-24 changed it up, as did the Solar Max starting in May 2024. I can tell that we want to go El Nino.. Not surprising that we might transition pretty fast. The US 500mb composite for this Winter so far is exactly like what it is before El Nino the next year. Here is February March

It's been a Nina STJ.. too bad because we are having our 2nd below average temp Winter in a row. Last -PDO decadal cycle was also cold and dry.

Real nice -AO showing up at the end of 6z GFS ensembles Correlation with temps (default is positive so -ao is opposite)

I see it briefly at 264hr. The 360hr 0z EPS has a favorable look