Jump to content

Stormchaserchuck1

NO ACCESS TO PR/OT
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,653

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    I had a surprise 7" snow early last December.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    lmao I like the 4980dm that's happening over the Arctic right now. There will be -AO periods this Winter.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Historically warm Nino 1+2 in Oct doesn't look like that. Winter, yes, not october based on the last 73 years. I'd say the H5 model you are posting is more opposite than similar in the n. pacific
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC going with it
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's a 2std -PDO pattern.. obviously continues to hold the crown as correlation leader in the N. Pacific.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thanks for posting that.. basically net neutral from 30-90N, same story.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'll take the under on a warm Christmas. There really aren't enough examples to be so confident in it. This is true for Super Nino's general.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    This October watch to see if US goes colder or not. El Nino's are historically cold in Oct. Pac pattern in Oct is pretty connected to the Winter.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    A few La Nina/-QBO's had crazy N. Pacific blocks in December.. >+200dm. That would be a wildcard for Dec, a monster N. Pacific low, if the PDO wasn't going against it so hard and recent patterns.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think you are paying too much attention to one part - ENSO. ENSO's propagation to the northern latitudes are 2nd and 3rd effects. Sometimes patterns set up in the mid latitudes. A greater El Nino response than 2015 is crazy imo. DJFM had nearly -120dm in the N. Pacific. We have not seen that like at all in 11 years, this record El Nino summmer included.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    498dm low in the Arctic circle for the next 4 days.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    498dm in the Arctic circle for the next 4 days. Continuing the warm season theme from 2024 and 2025.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Must be one heck of an El Nino pattern in the Southern Hemisphere.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Super Nino's are huge hit or total miss because of monster N. Pacific low correlation. Our top snowstorms are like -150dm GOA low pattern. The "El Nino pattern" has yet to happen this year. Doesn't mean that it won't happen going forward but you have to consider the strong -PDO N. Pacific pattern that we have had since 2016.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Look at all that water. Good sign for the Winter probably if it gets cold enough.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Should be interesting to see if we follow the last 3 El Nino's post-2016 PDO-change in October with a SE ridge and an area of real cold. 1948-2020 Oct Nino:
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    lmao You should have seen how far off it was Days 1-5
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Here bluewave posted this in another thread
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think the US record is 6038dm or something like that.. imagine challenging it in mid-September, and not even over the most favorable zone SW, US
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Are we really getting such a large 500mb ridge? Surface temps aren't as impressive as H5. That's actually not too far away from the all time US record. I wonder if we are shattering mid-Sept US record?
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Is a record-breaking east-based La Nina the most historically favorable state for cold? I think the global warming skew is significantly helping your case An actual low in the N. Pacific is not bad for NE, US cold - wavelengths never get that long on average. It's more in the Upper Midwest. There has been a slight historical tint of anomalous troughs in the arctic in the historical east-based Nino dataset 48-25, more examples than a few is more random there. And El Nino does tend to warm the Stratosphere, so over like 200 years of examples you would have more -ao.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nice run of -SOI 14 Sep 2026 1012.86 1014.90 -25.91 -17.50 -20.30 13 Sep 2026 1013.56 1015.55 -25.61 -17.44 -20.04 12 Sep 2026 1012.91 1015.60 -29.77 -17.32 -19.89 11 Sep 2026 1012.86 1015.40 -28.88 -16.53 -19.86 10 Sep 2026 1012.90 1013.90 -19.73 -15.51 -19.92 9 Sep 2026 1013.04 1013.40 -15.92 -14.62 -20.08 8 Sep 2026 1012.32 1014.50 -26.74 -14.02 -20.17 7 Sep 2026 1013.24 1015.10 -24.84 -13.46 -20.04 6 Sep 2026 1014.43 1015.70 -21.33 -13.18 -19.91
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Looks like it predicted the N. Pacific ridge too, which is rare in El Nino.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Upper 40s tonight. I think it will be cold enough in the Winter. Would be really surprised if we do a scenario like 97-98. Last 2 years we had early cold periods in September and they were both cooler Winters. Would have to be an unfavorable index pattern like +EPO if the Winter goes wrong, only mildly connected to ENSO.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Who's the number 1 WR without Zay and Lane, Bateman? He had about 10 catches last year. We also don't have Likely anymore who had a monster game and is a reason the Giants beat DAL
×
×
  • Create New...