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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, that's the feeling I'm getting. Models I think are crazy too because they are so used to cold ENSO. Nothing terribly impressive at this time, imo. re: the pattern, SOI and all. Subsurface is warm, but that may take a while to surface.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm kind of trepidatious of picking up our top "need" after Malaki Starks. Good WR's are hard to come by - there is a big difference between the good and bad ones. I think when you have an all star QB that can run you have to make the team about speed. At least keep the range of availble picks open, imo.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    You can't tell by personal observations, of say snow, that things are progressing in a direction?
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    We'll see. It's a strong PMM spike relative to the PDO so this is a good test year.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    85% of our months are above average these days. The question is how we are relative to that 85% number
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    The March '26 record +NAO, plus our tendency to go more -PDO relative to everything, and the Winter El Nino/+QBO combo, and NAO decadal + phase, where 20/20 months since 2011 with DJFM monthly NAO >1.11 being all positive! makes me currently lean warm as well. Really curious to see if we get a monster N. Pacific low this Winter though. If we don't get it, it means we have shifted into a different pattern vs 1980-2016, and the -PDO cycle may still be young.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    April before a Nino 3.4-based El Nino has the +PMM
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Bateman had like 10 catches all year? Lamar is a running threat if they have to cover WR's.. big time variable vs other teams needs. Also injury threat if he has to hold the ball makes it ++variable.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think it wouldn't hurt to draft a good WR honestly. Especially with Likely gone. Build the team around Lamar. Defenses vary too much year-to-year.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Cooler May? NAO was 2nd highest monthly all time in March 2026. 12 weeks x 75 years = 900 analogs. The following May in totality of analogs is surprisingly cold: CPC has it at least starting out this way May before a later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino is pretty Neutral historically, except in the PNW
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Right now it's developing from the west and the east, signaling basin-wide. Nino 1+2 doesn't correlate as highly as a lead in April, surprisingly. Here is Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 for +8months Dec SSTA
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Freeze warnings
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Unfavorable SSTA for big season as it stands currently
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nino 4 is the loading pattern for a Nino 3.4 El Nino. CDAS is currently much higher than CPC. This event is developing basin-wide like 2015-2016 or further west than most Strong Nino's. If it keeps developing further west at its core, I don't think it will go Super, but perhaps Strong, or per RONI high-end Moderate.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yes 10-11 was pretty cold. It was our last deeply -NAO Winter
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    I don't agree that you don't want the El Nino Strong, as long as it stays west-based. Number of examples is too low, and Stronger La Nina's (opposite) correlate with big SE ridge in the Winter
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^The subsurface orientation this year is further west than most previous Strong Nino's
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since the 2012 Arctic ice melt low, we've had a lot of cold season -AO with +NAO.. historically the two are much more correlated. I've found that Summer SLP 60-90N precedes the Winter AO state, although it's a reverse correlation, and the NAO decadal continues to be positive. Since 2011, 20/20 months with NAO value >1.11 in DJFM have all been positive!
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Interesting to note that we are still holding the "south-based +NAO" pattern with -AO, that started in 13/14, 14/15 and has continued... NAO was like +0.60/month this Winter, which was interesting because it was below average temps, with -AO dominating that.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe but 88-89 was a really Strong Nina. I don't think we will have Moderate-Strong for the next 3 years.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe we'll pop +6c tomorrow or the next day? Very impressive subsurface warmth on the thermocline
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    I went to Grand Turk, just south of the Bahamas a few days ago. Beautiful beach
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    SW, US ridge will do that. Best pattern for a tornadoes is a SW, US trough, slight SE ridge, and another trough in the Northeast to near New Foundland.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's just a middle ground of probability.. where the money is flowing regarding pattern. There is nothing meteorological about it, but some traders may use meteorology to buy/sell the market. I know this board is about discussing scientific theory, etc, but 90% of people really only care about what the Winter will bring so I reference the current trading trend and price, as it is the best guide. If you think it's not good, take up the challenge and trade it! The cold last Winter did more than double the NG price at one point, so accuracy would have been very beneficial to people personally! The cold last winter in the NE was somewhat predictable.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's easy to accept a theory without data. I did say that in the last 100 years something is reversing it. I'm just saying that's probably not a super long term thing, when talking hundreds of years. 1) I don't think we will have a Super El Nino this year (RONI). Does Strong reverse? It could be a high end Moderate to Strong peak, imo. If it was a Super El Nino, I agree, something is decadally is reversing it, but I think that's more of a pattern in the 1900s and 2000s and may not always be the case. 2) I do think we have +ENSO tendency for the next 3 years. That may cushion the reverse next year, and be more likely to go Neutral or Weak Nina. I don't think it will be a Moderate to Strong La Nina in 27-28.
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