Stormchaserchuck1

I think this Winter might just act ENSO Neutral.. a lot of different patterns. I do think we'll see more +NAO but probably more -AO. December has this high coincidence being very, very cold in neutral-negative ENSO/deep -QBO. I want to see if that coincidence persists this year.

I think last Winter was the most +PNA on record for a non-El Nino (CPC).

RONI does have 2-3x more impact on the pattern in the cold season. I'm really curious if we get more La Nina tendencies this cold season, seemingly out of nowhere, as that's what a few things seem to suggest. I'm not sold on it.

Yeah part of it too is that we haven't seen anything La Nina like in the N. Pacific this year. It's acting Neutral ENSO. Also, the subsurface moves up and down a lot in a short period of time.. remember how I was congratulating Gawx for La Nina calls because the subsurface had made it <-5? Now it's come all the way up to 0! Depending on MJO waves and gravity waves, it moves around a lot.. I don't necessarily know that it won't turn negative again, as that is the base long term state right now.

See how we are getting this +PNA over the next few weeks now that the ENSO subsurface has neutralized? It's not perfect but more times than not how it fluxes connects with PNA (Kelvin/Rossby waves).

In the last day +0c has hit 140W. That is significant. The central area is most important for N. Pacific H5 correlation.

2005 is pretty good. 1989.

It's trending where there might be no cold water in a few weeks.. let's see how that goes. In the last few weeks it has warmed significantly, and that is the trend right now.

Yeah.. the La Nina is just about no more on the latest TAO/Triton subsurface. I think the N. Pacific pattern is more based on the ENSO subsurface near the thermocline, so I personally wouldn't use La Nina analogs for this Winter. 96-97 is a good example of negative-neutral ENSO with warmer water starting to develop in the subsurface.

Looks like a +PNA pattern into the 1st and 2nd week of November. We haven't seen a big Aleutian ridge pattern much this year, or really since the 2023-2024 Strong Nino. Before then we were seeing it all the time. It doesn't mean that we won't see -PNA this Winter, but the pattern isn't "the norm" right now, like it was before.

October is interesting because there is a big negative 500mb anomaly over and around Alaska in the -PDO.. and -PDO's when the warm SSTA has been predominant pattern. You would think warmer water temps would be linear with warming somewhere else or there.. but it's a -0.5 H5 correlation that occurs consistently for the last 75 years.

Pretty interesting because 2021-2025 isn't even included in that composite! From 1948-2020 + and - phases had almost a 0.4 correlation with the PDO over SE Canada. And now in the last 5 years that correlation is growing bigger!

Yeah, the PDO holds a very strong correlation in October. It's been matching. That's why me and snowman19 were saying this would happen back in August and September.

It's still at $3.40, which is lower than average. I like to use $5 as a gauge for expected Winter NAO state.. under $5, more +NAO, over $5 more -NAO. It was $2.99 on Friday and has risen a lot in the last 2 days.. +12% it looks like, but the market is volatile and long range models have been showing cold for a while to start November.. so it might be more about Winter expectations, but the price is not currently high...

I was surprised NOAA had 19 Named Storms at the high end of their range this season.. their high end was 25 Named Storms last season.. they have been too high 2 years in a row. Global ACE hasn't been as the same as Atlantic ACE and I think that is going to level out a bit in the coming years. As for the MJO, long range models have been trying with the idea of a +PNA last few days of October, into the first week of November. It will be interesting to see how that verifies.. I think there is some expectation of the MJO making it to Phase 7.

We're not going to so easily hold a Winter -PNA if this subsurface cold pool doesn't re-strengthen I've found that the subsurface around the thermocline is most important of all ENSO variables for correlating North Pacific pattern.

The SOI never went strong during the 23-24 Strong Nino. Here's the monthly data: 2023 4 -1.20 2023 5 -15.26 2023 6 -3.19 2023 7 -3.32 2023 8 -10.85 2023 9 -13.87 2023 10 -6.63 2023 11 -8.38 2023 12 -3.78 2024 1 3.96 2024 2 -15.55 2024 3 -0.35 From 2020-early 2023 we had 34-straight months of +SOI.... so this decade there has been a severe +SOI tendency compared to other ENSO variables. Oct 2025 is likely going to make the 15th straight month of +SOI, although none of those months have gone over +10.. it's been consistently weak Nina/negative-Neutral for 2 years now... and La Nina-like SOI for 5+ years, with a little blip to slightly negative during the 23-24 Nino.

I'm always kind of surprised at you saying the WPO was very positive last Winter, are you referring to an actual index number? The 500mb looks neutral to slightly negative WPO.. Japan had a cold Winter

I think the only difference between this year and last year is 2nd year La Nina's have a little more Winter -PNA than the first year, and 2nd year -PDO's, when they don't correlate the first year, correlate the 2nd year at +1.24x. But La Nina is struggling right now.. it's starting to look like at the surface it won't make the 5 consecutive ONI month criteria. Subsurface is also weak right now.. barely -1 to -2 subsurface anomalies, and the SOI is weakly hanging around +5. Border line weak-Nina/negative-Neutral. Also last Summer we had a strong 4-corners High pressure.. that rolled forward to a pretty cold composite for the eastern 2/3 of the US for December and January (+PNA).. the SW, US High pressure wasn't as strong this Summer. However, 9 of the last 14 months have been +PNA [CPC], despite negative-ENSO. The Aleutian ridge hasn't yet gone back to levels it was before the 23-24 Strong Nino fwiw. It would surprise me if we saw a strong/persistent Aleutian ridge this cold season. It seems like it would have to kind of come out of nowhere.

They still play the Steelers 2x and Bengals 2x. If the defense gets better like last year (last week was a good performance, only giving up 17pts to the Rams with 3 offensive turnovers), we have a chance at the division. It's about as attainable as it gets for being 1-5. Vegas still has pretty high super bowl odds for the ravens (1/20).

Long range models continue to show a -AO to start November

March has a high -PNA/-NAO and +PNA/+NAO correlation.. wedges the SE ridge to near neutral. This is definitely a pattern though.. the lack of benchmark storms is because 80% of our Winter months have been -PNA since 2018 But there is a strong, strong correlation with US Temps and the SOI pre-1948. I suggest you check it out. I was only calling what I saw as SE ridge/NW trough -PNA, without looking at the North Pacific H5 (no data before 1948). It is possible the total composite of the 1948-2020 dataset is not big enough, if that is possible. Late 1800s - 1950, the SOI indicating a La Nina/El Nino was strongly correlated to Winter US Temperatures.

PNA is a big deal in January The biggest thing with PNA is its high sea-level pressure correlation on the coast, about +0.5. That's our benchmark storm or not. But yeah, in some other Winter months especially December and March the PNA correlation nears 0. EPO is by far the greatest pattern for temps in the NE 1/2 of the US. I was looking at SOI matches to SE ridge/NW trough before 1948, since that's when the global climate maps started, and it's a strong SE ridge/NW trough correlation with SOI pre-1948.

I don't know if I trust the validity of that graph to be honest.. it looks like the greatest bunch is weighted toward +NAO/+AO and DC is 39N latitude.. counter-intuitive. +NAO's are wetter. There is more precip, but I think a place so sensitive to the freezing point would be heavily weighted toward -NAO/-AO periods.. I know during my lifetime it hasn't snowed a lot when the NAO and AO have been positive. Pacific overwhelms the Atlantic though. Anomaly-wise W->E is actually greater than N->S. I've found the New Foundland warm/cold pool has a strong correlation with the Winter NAO in the preceding May-Sept, but not so much the day of. Maybe it has something to do with subsurface currents.

Going back to the 1800s, the SOI has a strong correlation with Winter PNA state https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt