Stormchaserchuck1

This has to be the most boring Winter I've experienced model tracking-wise. The southern stream is dead and we are in an "in between" pattern all the time. At least when it's warm that's exciting because it's one side of a wave. This is just endless nothingness. I guess I should be thankful for the one storm in early Dec.

I'm kind of concerned about the end of the 18z GEFS in what is suppose to be our colder time.. the N. Pacific High pressure extends south and west, giving us more -PNA. The Atlantic has a south-based +NAO. Thankfully it has time to change, as other forecasting agencies and long range products are showing more of a 500mb pattern favorable for cold.

Yeah, pretty classic La Nina December in the orientation of the anomalies. Feb is the highest correlated ENSO month, it will be interesting to see if we have more -PNA conditions if warm water continues to infiltrate the ENSO subsurface.. right now the subsurface general is ENSO Neutral.

That's kind of what I'm intuitively thinking. There is a Kelvin wave moving warm water to the central-ENSO-subsurface in the next few weeks, I have found that it does correlate with more +PNA conditions.

-EPO is the coldest pattern Its precip is "ok". When there is a trough in the PNA region or Gulf of Alaska there is a big negative sea level pressure anomaly on the east coast from the Gulf of Mexico to Maine. But not epo, -EPO is more High pressure dominant Sometimes you will pop a low on the coast though

Respectable little storm

It snowed harder in this one than the storm earlier in December. Probably 1"+/hr rates for 10 minutes

Snow squall warning for me!

Pour more coffee!

0z EPS tries to develop -EPO mid-month, which would quickly cool down the NE, while other models have more -WPO/-AO.. ridge near Russia. Interesting difference

I'll probably have to stay up until 5am to get in on this squall

Here it comes

Was never really a favorable period We were lucky to get so cold in Dec with the pattern, as the NAO had its most negative Winter month out of the last 60 Winter months (since Dec 2010)! -WPO contributed to it, too.

Happy New Years from the 0z GFS

Thanks for doing it Roger. DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.5 -1.2 -1.7 -2.5 +1.0 +2.7 +1.5 +3.5 +0.7

Hooray! Number 2! I used Apr-May SLP in the North Atlantic, it's a strong indicator.

Wow, 3 of the 4 warmest December's were in the last 4 years. That kind of thing exceeds climate change, it means that we have a strong pattern in place that is several years ongoing..

Hey Larry, I agree it's probably not factored in. I was looking at the 18z GFS ensemble and that is really not much big below average temps in the first 5 days of the month. Then we really amp the SE ridge, so some places around DC could be +3 to +5 by mid month. By the 15th, the pattern is changing but it's still above average in the northeast. That means we need a really cold 2nd half of the month for the CPC's forecast to verify. I'm tempted to pull the trigger on a long NG contract Future. The reason why it would be March and not Feb is volume starts dwindling on the Feb contract around Jan 24th, and the run may go through the end of the month. I've seen enough CPC monthly stuff to know that they do have pretty high accuracy.

I want to do a little experiment.. CPC vs Natural Gas Futures. I am so tempted to trade this on my own, but I think a series of practice scenarios played out will give me a higher confidence, instead of jumping right in. Since mid-August, the pattern in the East has been cool. Don't quote me, but it might have been our coldest 4.5 month period relative to average in 10+ years. I personally think the Solar Max, with aurora borealis extending south, starting in May 2024, and lasting through Fall 2025 was associated with a pattern that gave us a lot of negative 500mb height anomalies 60-90N, for the first time since a 2020-2023: a period that was always warm 500mb everywhere. I made a list of analogs that had that warm season pattern (-SLP 60-90N), and it gave me a strong -AO signal for the following cold season (data good since 2012). CPC forecast today is going with a cold January in the Northeast! What's interesting is the very warm forecast for the 1st half of January, released the same time (today): That means Jan 18-31 is projected to be very below average in the Northeast.. now the first 5 days of the month are also cold with -NAO, but it's still a pretty big difference that needs to occur for the 2nd half of the month for that monthly forecast to verify. Natural Gas has been falling, and the March contract at $3.159 is very cheap, and favors a more +NAO Winter (I used a $4.50 as an "even" mark.. below it is more +NAO expected, above is more -NAO expected) The theory is, when and if it gets very cold in the 2nd half of January, will Natural Gas start rising every day, or is the forecast already baked in? I don't think it's in the market, or else the price would be higher in my opinion. I'm only talking about a 2 week period, so the difference will not be big, but let's see if the price rises, when and if it rises, in the 2nd half of January. To be continued...

And with the 1st of January projected to be very warm, they are going with a big pattern change for the 2nd half of the month: PNA has been negative every day this Winter since Dec 1st. LR models have it going positive for the 2nd half of January: If the CPC is right, it could actually get very cold Jan 20-30.

The start of an arctic pattern if it verifies

My dog is outside barking, so I go outside to get him and am surprised to see a flash of lightning to my NW! Does anyone have flurries or anything?

So Dec 2025 will be the most negative NAO Winter month (DJFM) since December 2010! 15 years, and 60 Winter months! With the 1st half of January looking like -NAO, we may beat the record for most -NAO Winter since 2010-2011. We need -0.24 for the Winter average to have that, and through Jan 15, we will have about -1.00, meaning that we need <+0.50 for the 2nd half of Winter to have the most -NAO Winter in 15 years! Nice longer term pattern brake.

Unfortunately, the Pacific 500mb doesn't change into a favorable state until mid month. (Unless models are wrong of course)