Stormchaserchuck1

You have to understand the long term average is not hyperactive like we have seen for the last few years No La Nina.. check No record warm SSTs.. check. That's why a lot of forecasts are average per the post-1995 averages. I want to see if the NAO blows up positive again this season, because last year it seemed to be connected to the Solar Max.. but since October it hasn't been as extreme +.

Connected to late Stratosphere warming.

Yeah, got down into the 20s here. It was from -NAO, which falls within the range of time after a Stratosphere warming event, so it most likely was connected.

NAO is highly correlated to precipitation too, so if the Pacific can line up right in +NAO, it's a good pattern for snow. -NAO: -0.5 correlation with temperatures (3/4 times below average) -NAO: -0.5 correlation with precipitation (3/4 times below average) -EPO: -0.6 correlation with temperatures (4/5 times below average) -EPO: -0.1 correlation with precipitation (6/11 times below average) So a -EPO/+NAO is actually net -temperatures (-0.1) and +precip (+0.3). That's a cold/snowy pattern! (13-14, 14-15)

We had a strong -NAO that Winter. It was actually our last -NAO Winter.. every Winter 11-12 to 24-25 has been +NAO. Can you believe that? 14 years in a row. Gawx has correlated increase in -NAO activity with Solar Min.. 09-10 and 10-11 were both at a Solar Min, but there were probably other factors impacting to -NAO, too.

2009 actually had a strong -QBO so the -NAO/-AO was helped out by the Stratosphere.

I just don't think we're going to always have -NAO with Modoki El Nino.. I agree that over the dateline, the effect on the Hadley Cell is further west so more +PNA vs North Pacific High.

Yeah but it really puts the conversation on track if you understand "20 pennies" is weak, and "100 pennies" is strong. East vs west are like a foreign currency vs a Dollar. But Weak -ENSO is not going to favor cold weather while Strong -ENSO is not. If there is cold, it is because of other things. Weak does not automatically equate to -NAO, it has just so happened to happen that way over the past 50-70 years.

Yeah, believe it or not Dec 1955 and Jan 1956 were cold in the eastern 2/3 of US.

Yeah, I've just run a lot of correlation researches, and I start seeing that areas far away from X point of origin correlate weakly over enough data. That's all. Yankees have one of the largest cities, so higher potential revenue.. and baseball has no salary cap so it carries.

I think the west coast and east coast are warming faster than the Midwest.. yes. Just try to not imagine what you know to be true about strong La Nina's and El Nino's. We are starting from scratch. Here is what they actually do as the Tropical Cell interacts with the Hadley Cell Downstream from that, when it's High pressure (la nina), you have a trough in the Midwest and sometimes a SE ridge. A low pressure there puts a ridge in the Midwest. If the ENSO events are based further west on the equator, the effected area of the north pacific high shifts west, if the ENSO event is further east, the effected area shifts east. It's pretty real a yes or no equation.. our # of samples so far are statically not high enough yet to give us clear opposite results in the data yet.. so random variance occurs (wrt ENSO impact).

So far... I would love in my lifetime to see a strong East-based La Nina. Not impossible, but you are talking about the coldest SSTs occurring off the coast of Peru, and probably like 24c being hit, so such an event is a pretty extreme occurrence. You would need massive trade winds.

I mean the Earth is warming, but it was -32F in Valentine Nebraska a month ago, and it snowed 10" in Florida this year.. I don't think the "cold air is shrinking" is a valid theory besides general earth warming lol.

It comes down to what they are, and what they do. They interact with the Hadley Cell, and North Pacific High. One creates low pressure, the other high pressure.

We only have global satellite maps from 1948 on, but the US climate division has data way before then, from the 1800s. You can kind of piece together the NAO if you know what it is... does someone have a reliable list of ENSO events 1800s-1948?

In the map that I posted earlier this page of anti-Strong El Nino's, you can see there is a -NAO signal... so maybe correct that by moving the cold from the Northeast and Great Lakes to the Upper Midwest... I think going forward it could happen, and it not happening or happening the same is maybe like a +5-10% probability.

I just don't think it's that high of a correlation.. people swear by datasets, but I can easily see the NAO deviating in future years.. maybe if we go back to the early 1900s there are a lot more wild card NAO happenings, as El Nino's and La Nina's both fluctuate from very warm to very cold in those composites.

ENSO does slightly effect the Stratosphere. That's probably your best hook for this.

I understand it makes the whole system nice and easy, but there's little reason why ENSO would effect the NAO that much. NAO is not driven completely by what occurs over the Pacific. Not going to argue this more when it's saying that the data we have is not statistically significant, but the NAO is not likely to be consistently in the same states going forward as the 3/3 times weaker ENSO or whatever in the past..

The effect of ENSO is mostly on the Pacific.. the dataset is too limited to have statistical significance yet, wrt something more far away, like the NAO.

Given 100 more samples, I don't think you will see that as strongly. Maybe a 0.05 correlation/1 (5%).

I don't think NAO associated with ENSO is as highly correlated as you think.. it might just be a coincidence of sample years so far (6/8 or something). They do connect with Stratosphere though.. +QBO and La Nina favors +AO, while -QBO and El Nino favors -AO.

Yeah, here's what Strong La Nina's would look like if they were completely east-based like the Strongest El Nino's:

But they are relative states of the same weather on the equator.. if one is less than, than the greater than should have opposite effects. The reason why both appear bad is because of lack of data, and because historically stronger La Nina's have usually been west-based, which is focused near 180W/0. If the La Nina was east-based like these massive Strong El Nino's have been, then you might see a very cold pattern in the northern US and Canada.

Yes.. it's the same for Strong El Nino's vs Weak El Nino's. It's not a given that the NAO will be negative in Weak El Nino. To assess whether strong or weak is better or worse, you have to surmise which the better pattern is, El Nino or La Nina.. they should actually be opposites of each other as far as anomalies go. If Strong El Nino is so bad, then Strong La Nina is so good... the difference is we've never really seen a strong east-based La Nina like some of the stronger east-based El Nino's. Orientation on the equator is a difference maker. But a -3c La Nina in Nino 1+2... should be cold near the Great Lakes..