Stormchaserchuck1

In January we really need to change the PNA. It has a higher correlation with SE ridge or EC trough, than other months like Dec and March. +0.4 temp correlation in Jan. Hr384 of 12z GEFS is trying to change the PNA. It has a -NAO as well. I like the progression toward mid-January if it can hold going forward..

I didn't realize that we are getting nearly a +600dm anomaly over Greenland in 2.5 days. Big -NAO. And it reloads 3x. This is the 384hr prog from the 18z GEFS. I like the progression.. building -NAO (again), and a different Pacific evolving from -PNA

Today's Euro weeklies for Jan 19-26 have a colder look Equal chances on todays 3-4 Week CPC outlook

Not really going to do it with 507dm over Alaska. Surface cold air is cutoff.

Really respectable -NAO showing up in the long range on 12z GFS ensembles. Near +300dm on the mean south of Greenland at hr384.

I bought in at $48! Trying to decide whether to sell today, or hold on a little longer. That $50 mark was a top that held for 50 years when just about every other metal has hit a new all time high, so when it finally passed it, it accelerated. Gold had its 2nd best year since the 1970s in 2025. It has an Up signal for next year, per a method I've backtested..

Oct 1-30: +60 days Nov 1-15: +50 days Nov 15-30: +45 days Dec 1-15: +40 days Dec 15-30: +35 days Jan 1-15 +30 days Jan 15-30 +25 days Feb 1-20: +20 days Feb 20-March 30: +15 days Apr 1-15: +10 days Something like that..

Doesn't have to be a reversal to have impact/correlation

I don't know about that, but at the time of the Stratosphere warming long range weeklies were not showing a -NAO in the +30-35 day typical lag time. Maybe they were assuming it all happens at the same time and since the 10mb warming was waning without -NAO, that they thought that was the end of it? There is a spike in -NAO probability +35 days after a late November 10mb warming (it's a different lag time at different times in the cold season.. longer early in the Winter, and in early April it's as soon as +10 days.) 10mb warming events can happen as soon in the year as Sept 30, with a +60 day typical lag time to -NAO. Reflective is probably just an adjoining of the upper levels and 500mb. Sometimes they hit at Day+0 together, but the actual -NAO 500mb correlation is up to 3x higher +laggedtime.

I use 10mb anomaly as a base. It had to clear +1000 over a 8+ day period to qualify. I think that includes some weaker events.

Live and learn. I love techniques that have that kind of a lag time (>+20 days).. It should be noted that Stratosphere cooling events do not have a lag. They correlated with +AO at Day-0. This is for all times of the cold season.

You mean -NAO/-PNA, +NAO/+PNA

Oh, now you're using the snow depth map.

Hey Larry, Natural Gas March contract went up 7.5% today, while the January contract is up 11.5%. They two are pretty correlated so when there is a difference like that it tells me it's focusing on more shorter term. Since Europe uses NG heavily, a strong east-based -NAO here in the next week is a cold pattern for them. We could have used the late Nov Stratosphere warming to predict this NG move! Although if we got in late Nov, it still would have been a pretty substantial loss as there was a big move down throughout the month of December. $3.28 for the March contract is still cheap, but up from the $3.00 low. Under $4.50 basically implies a +NAO mean for the majority of the Winter, while over $4.50 would imply a mean -NAO pattern. I would guess that from now to March, the March NG contract rises from its current $3.28 price, I'd say probably about 65-70% likely.

Nice little surprise storm. Models put down about 2" of sleet here. GFS has 4" snowdepth, but that's probably mostly ice. I'm in a good position though, the cold air wedges in pretty good SW. And it's a daytime storm for once, should be pretty out!

Yeah everything bought into the warm pattern real quick as NG was forecasting the pattern to basically last all Winter. It's not a wall-to-wall torch pattern this Winter, imo.

We are getting a 5850dm block between England and Iceland in a few days.. a +600dm anomaly. This will be the 2nd +600dm anomaly in a few days, as we just had one over the Aleutian islands. It's an east-based -NAO. See how the late November Stratosphere warming correlates to -NAO in about +30-35 days?? I went all the way back to 1948 and found that pattern with a different lag time at different times of the cold season. But this is a major hit. Models didn't pick it up until the last few days.. it will be interesting to see if it's a common bias if an early Winter Stratosphere warming happens again in the next few years.

Lamar hasn't beat a team over .500 yet this season. His best win against an opponent was the 6-9 Dolphins.

Who cares about rain and 40s? This is the day after Christmas, looks fun!

Today's Euro weeklies are a disaster, have the same pattern going to Feb 2. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202512200000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202602020000 Good news is they've been fluctuating a lot. Now strengthening 10mb PV modeled after the New Year:

What's your question?

This is a good point. We are following 05-06 closely right now. There actually aren't many deep -QBO/weak-negative ENSO matches to this year, but 05-06 and 89-90 fit. Feb 2006 went cold when Feb 1990 was warm, but they were both warm January's. I do think there is more -AO tendency at 90N this Winter that neither of those analogs had. Will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves going into mid-January.

12z GEFS is a CONUS blowtorch through the end, hr384. At that point we still have a +300dm Aleutian ridge and +EPO. It will take some time to detox them both in the best case scenario. This pattern surprises me a little, before Dec we had 21/29 months of +PNA since 2023 (CPC), and since the 23-24 El Nino ended, we still had 12/20 months of +PNA in negative ENSO. Now all of a sudden we have a Strong La Nina pattern from the N. pacific to the continental US. I guess Fall AAM is important, as that is the difference between this year and last year - this year we had a -AAM Fall, last year it was more positive 2nd year -PDO's, when the PDO doesn't work year 1 (+PNA last Winter in deep -PDO), correlates at 1.24x normal year 2.. It's deep negative this year so that could have been another sign.

When it's deep -PNA like this, I don't even look at models for snow. Strong +EPO too. 98% of the time threats at Day 8+ don't pan out or are warm. While the OP may sometimes show a winter storm, the ensemble mean never really even has a trough.

I did a statistic analysis once that had a 0.25 correlation to the pattern after 2007, a 0.30 correlation to the pattern after 2013, and a 0.40 correlation to the pattern 2019-2023. It dropped a little bit since 2023, but is still in the ~0.35 correlation range. Historically, the correlation as not as high but still there (0.05 to 0.10 before 2007)