Stormchaserchuck1

Barry obviously loves weather. He doesn't bother me.

SOI has been solidly negative for the first time in a while, during the last 3 days. This has occurred with the ENSO subsurface cold pool no longer deepening.. the anomalies have moderated from -5c max to -3c max. 5 Aug 2025 1012.75 1014.10 -18.03 4.89 2.94 4 Aug 2025 1012.63 1014.25 -19.66 4.67 3.20 3 Aug 2025 1013.49 1015.10 -19.60 4.77 3.40

Yeah, in the NAO roll-forward we would have to get -EPO to balance out those US Temps with such a strong +NAO going on. I just think it's cool how they pick their own unique landing place with the northern latitude trough, not in what's occurring or has occurred, but going forward.

^They don't often go extreme though. A lot of it is the average error factored in. Compared to the N. Hemisphere, we are about in the middle of the warm anomaly.

^Here's how they roll-forward

It's very interesting! consistency usually dominates. This is the next three 7-month periods for the NAO, going to April 2026. US Temps aren't as warm as you would expect AO is completely different rolled forward - it's not a negative H5 based over Greenland, but over the Arctic circle and north of Alaska!

Be happy it's not Winter July was the 6th consecutive month of +NAO. Cumulative NAO value of +3.75 in that time. July was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Cumulative AO value of +3.2 in that time. It's looking like August may be the 7th consecutive +NAO month, with a projected Aug 1-15 value coming in around +1. The odds of having 7 consecutive months in either direction is 1/64.

The CPC monthly page has updated July was the 6th consecutive month of +NAO. Cumulative NAO value of +3.75 in that time. July was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Cumulative AO value of +3.2 in that time. It's looking like August may be the 7th consecutive +NAO month. The odds of having 7 consecutive months in either direction at random is 1/64.

It snowed here 15 times last December through mid January in +PNA.. I will always take a +PNA pattern, I think it's somewhat underestimated. It also has 4x lower coastal SLP correlation vs -PNA.

Does the Euro develop La Nina?

Did you guys see the CANSIPS 0.0 month lead forecast for July? Congrats Iowa The Euro has had some big misses the past 2 Winters, from the Fall. I honestly think that seasonal models should be built to do better, You can run forward certain variables and get a picture. I always wondered if you take and combine analog data from 200 world cities, if it would produce a successful roll forward.

I don't think we will get a SE ridge if the Pacific H5 looks like that for the Winter. Their Pac ridge might be far enough south though.. I think it's persistence as last Feb looked like that with the dominant +h5 over 90N. Crazy how much it looks like June-July.

I think there is KU potential in mid-late January, but the wild card is the NAO. I don't think the NAO will stay negative for more than 10 days at a time this Winter.. if it can line up with what I think could be a GOA low pattern in January (if La Nina doesn't go too strong), then we might hit a good storm. If the ENSO subsurface is -4 to -6 during that time though, forget it..

There really hasn't been a strong/persistent Aleutian ridge since before the 23-24 El Nino. I mean for several years there we were seeing some big time patterns out there. It's been much weaker lately, making me think it probably won't be a big -pna Winter, could average negative in the mean though.

That's probably true unless something over powers it like a Strong La Nina. I think, like last year, a +NAO tendency will try to happen with +pna/-epo, I just don't know if the "snap back" from last year is going to negate that. Call the theory weird, but I've been testing it and it's been working out.. a year ago we had like 10 days of -5 AAO readings around now, a month ago I said that will probably mean we get +AAO around the same time this year and it was strongly positive in early July and now early August. PDO years that "don't work" one Winter work at a coefficient of 1.25x the following year. Just random statistical stuff, but I think given the background state we are kind of due for a more -PNA Winter.. maybe -EPO. I've also been thinking, how bad would a 01-02 +EPO-like Winter be these days? It's actually been a little bit of time since the EPO has been in a strongly positive state for the Winter, and that index is very powerful at resulting US weather. I think a 01-02 style +EPO would probably put us in the 70s down here in the Winter on multiple days, I guess given the WPO and EA.

Nevermind, I found the link that you had sent me (thank you).. It's actually not what I thought I saw posted. This confirms the un-correlating NAO in the last 10 years, although I think the Pacific pattern has a lot to do with it (notice the big anomalies over the West coast, usually the NAO runs 0.1-0.2 correlation out there). I think it's been -PNA/+EPO with -NAO and +PNA/-EPO with +NAO.

I thought you had posted a US Climate division data correlation map, showing >0.5 temp correlation with the NAO over the last decade, almost everywhere in the CONUS during the cold season. This was maybe 9 months ago.

That's kind of been the H5 pattern this Summer though, atmosphere leading. Now it does run forward (consistency of the NAO/AO) at a 0.2-3 correlation, but something to look at is the relative SSTAs in comparison to the pattern.. if it runs warmer, that means there is probably warm subsurface fueling the stream and cold season +NAO chances would be heightened, because that kind of thing is harder to shut down, it's more of a macro happening.

I haven't checked my index, but it's probably very positive.. that looks like close to +0.75 in that map (DJFM NAO). The cold over the southern Davis Strait and south of Greenland is a big part of it.

Japan might have enough of a linear trend to have been effected by a shifting of currents, but I don't think the SE ridge is. It's still hard to say, because the Pacific is still such an extreme ocean. If we were in +PDO and the Gulf of Alaska and West coast was really warm, you would probably be pointing that out as the "global shift". I think that all you are doing is pointing out the underlining warming.

I would say the climatological odds favor the African wave staying out to sea. We don't have a huge ridge over the top, but sometimes early in the season you can get a track like Andrew.

We had a strong +PDO wave 2014-2016, it got up there over +2 for a good amount of time. Many thought the phase could be shifting because the std of the +pdo at that time was pretty high, but it tanked a few years after the 15-16 Strong Nino. Looking back, it was just a blip, or an anomaly, in the 30-year trend.

No doubt the global temperature is rising exponentially, but I don't think a +0.4F change (after some Strong El Nino) creates all these bubbles of like +6-8f differences. That has a lot to do with the pattern. I don't think the 15-16 and 23-24 El Nino's were turning points that we are never coming back from, meaning like an amplified SE ridge in permanence or something. PDO and NAO decadal is, per statistics, 5x more likely to be cyclical rather than "random", given the 150 years of data that we have.

I think he's like 300 years ahead of time. I vision a map where the whole Hemisphere is warm, warmest at the Poles and NAO and EPO and warm underneath. That's the vision I think he's sticking to. We've had some real cold in the Midwest during -EPO periods the past several Winters. The global circulation still works.

-NAO's not correlating with an East coast trough in the cold season is not really a global warming point, besides the +temps that are everywhere. Starting in 2013, but really going back to 2007, -NAO's have been happening much more frequently with +epo/-pna, and +NAO's with -epo/+pna. Something is connecting the N. Hemisphere pattern. The Pacific is a stronger pattern and has generally produced stronger results. Now the last 2 Winters -NAO's have been happening with a CONUS trough. The real anomalies were Dec 2022 and March 2023, but we seem to be getting a little bit out of it the last 2 cold seasons.