Stormchaserchuck1
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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1
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^It must have an error with surface based warmth then.
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Its 0.0 month lead forecasts are so bad that it will probably hold that look up until Dec lol -
CANSIPS has a pretty strong cold bias.. check out what it had for August at 0.0 month lead vs what actually happened. July 25 it did the same thing, -4 areas verifying at +2 and stuff like that.
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5 Super east-based Nino's on record since 1948 (ONI) [72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24] had the following ENSO +1-2 years after (RONI): 9 La Nina's 1 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino +1 year: 5 La Nina's 0 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino +2 year: 4 La Nina's 1 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino
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-AO/+NAO. There is like 90% corrlation between nao and ao, mostly over Greenland. The actual 60-90N Im calling AO but officially it's 90% correlated to NAO domain, further SE.
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Since 2012 May-Sept SLP 60-90N is reversing 60-90N H5 for the Winter. A lot of that raw +correlation is NAO-related.
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Yeah 20 years of global warming after that. We realistically need a -EPO or -NAO. A lot of people don't realize, but we have yet to see our 1st N. Pacific trough since the El Nino developed! A lot of these Super Nino analogs have something like -150dm for DJFM, lack of awareness about the current pattern imo
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Cold water developing to the west. Also subsurface anomalies approaching -3c below 150E. We may be headed to La Nina for 27-28.
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Similarities to 2025 over the past 5 months 2025 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2026 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2025 Aug +PNA 2026 Aug +PNA 2025 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO 2026 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO
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CANSIPS had a cool August for places that ended up +4F at a 0.0 month lead. In the south it had near 0F forecast, and it was +4-6f. Terrible forecast when the first 15 days of the month are already short range modeled.
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Nov and Dec are the warmest months. Matches the ENSO analog set. Kind of interesting that 01-02 which was the strongest +EPO on record never got above 82F in Fairbanks all earlier that year. But that's just 1 example.
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Aug was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Here's how that historically rolls forward to the cold season
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NWS Fairbanks on X: "Through August 30th, Fairbanks has experienced its coldest year to date in 54 years (since 1972), with an avg temp of 28.7°F ranking as the 11th coldest year to date. The warmest temp recorded this year was 81°F, the 2nd coldest maximum ever. Here's a look at the numbers. #akwx" / X I don't know how to embed, but the lowest Summer maxes in Fairbanks since 1980.. 3 of them roll forward to a good +EPO signal for the following Winter
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lol I wonder how much people are paid to program these models Where's the raindancewx post where Canadian had a cool Aug for the US at 0.0 month lead and it was near the warmest on record!
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Nearly -200dm N. Pacific trough in February. Color me skeptical. These models were so bad in 23-24.
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September 2026 Medium/Long Range
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to JenkinsJinkies's topic in Mid Atlantic
Rockies ridge has been the pattern for a while.. +6F anomalies for almost a year is impressive! -
September DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.9 1.1 0.7 3.0 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.8 0.4
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I've been getting warmer indicators on the Winter than a month ago. Will have to find a site that does SSTA for the whole May-Sept period
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The problem with that is, whatever is happening at the time is correlated to the linear rise in temperature. I would think there would just be more global high pressure, a more stable system - bigger swings does not jive with a total warming climate. 09-10 was the lowest NAO since the mid 1800s. I thought global warming would really inflate high pressure at the poles - but the opposite has happened over the last 11 years. Now it's swings or whatever that is the product of global warming. Something else I think is causing the mid latitude temps to rise relative to the poles.
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It just comes across like you think things like NAO, PNA, etc are altered from new Super El Nino's happening. We are probably rate of global warming x 2013-14 likely to see a Winter that cold again. Indices have not been on track since 2016 and that is a significant part of the NE warming trend. The 1970s were a big dip down in the late 1800s - 1960s global warming. No one is saying warming isn't happening but it's becoming too comfortable and too specific.
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"Points", "next level", "new threshold".. they are fictions of the mind. The mind likes structure. It also communicates more confidently when referring to it. There is no finite system that is baking out things when new El Nino's are hit. It's smooth - the global temperature rise is linear to localized warmings over a large enough sample.
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^You like to take small samples and apply absolutes to them. Every thing that happens isn't because global warming is happening. I think history shows us that when we have something like 5/6 consecutive La Nina's before this year, and >50% of La Nina's since 1998, it in every case reverses hard thereafter. We all predicted this 2 years ago. Solar Max +2 years is a pretty good warm ENSO correlation as well. What's the global temperature rise, +0.3-4c/yr for ENSO? That's probably the rate of warming. We've had mostly La Nina's since 1998. A few years ago we were hearing about how global warming was causing more La Nina's
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Looks like we start warming up around the 1st of Sept. The 1st half of the month could have a pretty big +anomaly.
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Partial Lunar Eclipse visible now
