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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    How did the JMA initialize the current Nino (I know it has a west or central-based configuration in the Winter)?
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just letting you guys know, this was a >+1 PDO. The new thought in the weather community is that global warming is skewing PDO negative, etc, the warm pool near Japan isn't going away. While SSTAs are warmer, the PDO is a 50/50 index, and the big warmth along the west coast of North America was responsible for strong +PDO in 15-16.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    02-03, 04-05, 09-10.. Nino 1+2 was close to neutral.. those were true west-based Nino years, and what a Winter they were
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    East based Super Nino's in the analogs might have too much of a +NAO bias anyway. 1895-1948 La Nina's were... really warm Winters. Flip that around and it's colder for El Nino's, Nino's might have been more east-based though.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    No, really strong El Nino's tend to develop this way. In comparison to other Super Nino's it doesn't look especially outstanding, but there has never been a La Nina at this time of the year that had Nino 1+2 70% greater than all other regions.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ever had a La Nina this east based?
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's relative to the average fluctuation of different regions vs each other. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 1+2 at +2.8c and there is +8c water under there. It's like 50% or more Nino 1+2 based.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just don't think it was a Modoki pattern in the Pacific. Heavy -NAO was why that Winter was cold in the East.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good stuff as always, snowman19
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, El Nino generally favors warm Stratosphere. El Nino/-QBO is what you really want, 23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. I know it didn't correlate highly to the NAO that Winter, but the combo can produce, 09-10 was El Nino/-QBO.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    65-66 had a -PNA?
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC going with some Summer heat leading up to July 4
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    +1.4 on Tropical Tidbits
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Correlation between May-Sept SSTA and Nov-March NAO. Edit: I actually have it in reverse, I should have done lag instead of lead. Here's the +3-6 month correlation: This means that for a Winter -NAO you want cold water in that pool south of New Foundland
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Preceding Atlantic SSTA for following cold season NAO I find May-Sept is the best because it has that positive correlation around Greenland which you can play vs SSTA south of New Foundland
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just make sure it doesn't spill over into the Indian Ocean and produce a +WPO
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another interesting thing will be the Feb-March PNA. This 9-year period is the most extreme anomaly for any 9-year period on records over the last 120 years.
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we are the furthest thing from seeing west-based Nino patterns decadally, despite general warming in Nino 4. Another question is if the North Pacific High weakens this year. It's like a 5 std "PDO" vs 5 std east-based El Nino. Interesting!
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would love a -NAO with Super Nino STJ. Unfortunately, something like 14 Winters in a row have been +NAO (CPC). AO going negative has been easier to achieve. We will also likely have strong +QBO which strengthens the Stratosphere PV.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think bluewave has pointed out the last major seasonal forecast hit was the JMA in 2013. I do have bad memories of the constant trough over the EC that seasonal models were showing in the Summer/Fall 2023 though.
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    It does correlate with following Winter NAO. Right now the Atlantic SST index is slightly negative Here is what you're looking for (default of map is positive phase, with both sides considered) Notice the Atlantic tripole. That's a high correlation for SSTA.
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Finally getting that El Nino below average temps around the Great Lakes
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    Might be another -AO vs +NAO type of scenario, but it's still early. Stronger El Nino going forward might disrupt the consistency over the Arctic, which is imo Solar related.
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    Should be interesting to see how closely we follow 2015 when the QBO switches. I agree that it's the best ENSO/QBO combo. 23-24 and 72-73 look like good ENSO/PDO matches, although this one will probably be a stronger Nino. And of course 1997 is taking the lead in the subsurface. Next year we will start descending into more of a Solar Min.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Since the Solar max in 2024, 3 straight Summers, or in this case early Summer, has had big time cold over the Arctic 60-90N relative to the global warming. I'm thinking that we are pretty close to 2024, 2025 so far.
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