Stormchaserchuck1

I love snow but I try to be objective. Last Winter is a pretty good analog for this one imo. But if we are colder in Jan/Feb, there is always a chance that we can do a bigger storm, but the STJ is just completely dead so far this Winter. Acting like a Moderate Nina right now. I also notice that you were leaning cold in the Fall after leaning warm the last few Winters.. not bad so far!

I'm actually pretty bullish on colder this Winter.. at least one of the better Winters in the last 10 years. The models made a huge shift to warm over the last few days though.. Polar Vortex in northern/NW Canada really pops the SE ridge here in the 2nd half of December. Here's a post I just made about it in the ENSO thread: Yeah, pretty big warm up on the GFS ensembles. +NAO gets going in the next few days, and the -WPO transitions into a pattern where the PV is in northern/NW Canada. Natural Gas moved from $5.50 to $4.50 in a few days, over the last few days. It actually led models shifts by about 2 days. I just think that is so interesting. I wonder if Ray's January warm up is happening early? I do think in the longer term we have tendency for -AO/-EPO but that may not be until after or around Jan 1.. Stratosphere warming in Nov wasn't super strong, but that is a possible -NAO the last week of Dec, if the cooler pattern is going to move back in early. we'll see. After the clippers the next few days, I don't really see any threats for snow until around Jan 1st.

Yeah, pretty big warm up on the GFS ensembles. +NAO gets going in the next few days, and the -WPO transitions into a pattern where the PV is in northern/NW Canada. Natural Gas moved from $5.50 to $4.50 in a few days, over the last few days. It actually led models shifts by about 2 days. I just think that is so interesting. I wonder if Ray's January warm up is happening early? I do think in the longer term we have tendency for -AO/-EPO but that may not be until after or around Jan 1.. Stratosphere warming in Nov wasn't super strong, but that is a possible -NAO the last week of Dec, if the cooler pattern is going to move back in early. we'll see.

I don't think a warm up will sustain. The Strat warming gives -NAO tendency the last week of Dec and 1st week of January, and I've mentioned this before, but we had some very low N. Hemisphere 500mb lows in the Summer and Fall. Since 2012, that has a really high correlation with following Winter -AO, primarily at 90N. A High pressure at 90N, which I'm going to say is this Winter's tendency, does cool the northern part of the US. On the other hand, the weak-negative-ENSO/strong -QBO matches that are working out really well (1989, 2005) did flip to a +EPO pattern in late Dec that lasted all of January. We are following those analogs closely right now, but I do think that 90N High pressure tendency may overcome the sustained warmth that those analogs saw going later into the Winter. It is interesting to see the long range models flip warm though, which happened in those years.

Remember, in November it usually takes a Stratosphere warming +30-35 days to impact the NAO (-NAO). Based on CDC reanalysis maps, I'm saying Nov 21 was the first day of 10mb warming. Here it is to Dec 5: Not real strong.. I'd say a 4-5/10 warming, but 11/21 is +35 days -- Dec 26, and 12/5 is +30 days -- Jan 5. So watch Dec 26 - Jan 5 for a turn to more -NAO conditions. That isn't on 2-week model progs yet.

Wow- big shift on 18z GFS ensembles to +NAO in the medium and long range. Natural Gas opened gapping down in price.

Defensive line is by far the worst part of this team. Rogers had been putting up pedestrian numbers all year then all of a sudden he throws for 300yds. In they playoffs they would easily give up 27+ every game. Oh well. I do think if Likely had scored a TD a the end the Steelers wouldn't have been able to drive back down the field.

Lamar played a good game. He gets too cute with his wrist throws and such.. eventually other teams catch onto his mentality, that's what's wrong.

Exactly. Pretty big difference in the playoff picture. It's a shame, the Ravens are team that could get hot at the end, it's how they play like they are always warming up or something.

I posted in this thread like 4-5 times a long time ago that weak-negativeENSO and strong -QBO has this strange coincidence of having super cold December's. 1989 and 2005 were examples. QBO is a stratosphere index so I didn't want to make the physical connection, but mentioned that it would be something if it happened again. And sure enough, it did happen again. This December is looking like one of the coldest in the eastern 1/2 since 2005.

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Yeah, it's not as easily baked into the price as you would think. They do a lot of year-to-year consistency. If next year there is a -8 SLP over the Arctic June - August and Natural gas is $2.50, it would be good to go long the position for the Winter.

Natural Gas Futures are up near $5, making one heck of a run since August! I've been watching to see if it goes up, record low 500mb in the N. Hemisphere in August, low 500mb at different times in the Summer and Fall - all that is pretty strong in preceding a cold Winter. Since 2012, negative SLP 60-90N in the warm season correlates to Winter -AO at a high rate. I didn't trade the Futures, but I should have - they are trending toward the colder Winter idea (although $5.00 is about the middle mark - >$5 -NAO, <$5 +NAO)

Doesn't make sense - they have 2" for Bel Air, then 43% of getting 1"+ 1" is much more realistic around here - the 12z GFS looks like ~1", less SE

This isn't a real strong Stratosphere warming so far

That model is too cold.. it has me >30% of having 3"+.. it's going to be rain here. There is a storm around 12-6 though, and maybe another later on.

It may just be a brief pattern though, like a few days. I think 36 hours ago the ensemble mean had the coldest anomalies over the PNW, where it's now Alaska so it's been moving around a little bit. A +EPO can overwhelm +PNA/-NAO.. btw, NAO is SLP between ~Iceland and the Azores. That's +NAO being shown, but -AO (High pressure over the arctic circle). Not really a strong anomaly pattern coming up.. hard to make a forecast in all that neutrality. I do like the overall cold 500mb in the N. Hemisphere though.

I'm liking the cold tendency (-AO tendency) this cold season. Something like 97-98 and 01-02 are the farthest thing from right now. Notice how the modeled 500mb maps have more cold than warm anomalies in the N. Hemisphere.. we haven't seen that in like 10 years. When I researched snowfall in Winter the N. Hemisphere negative 500mb (general) was the strongest thing preceding. I'm trepidacious about an above average snowfall Winter down here, but we do have a better pattern coming compared to the last 10 years imo. Anyway, good job on your analog outlook.

The +EPO and cold probably isn't going to happen like that.. it's going to be one or another. If the negative 500mb over Alaska holds in the next few days, models will probably trend warmer in the CONUS. CPC yesterday put out a cold 3-4 week forecast though, with above average precip

You going to get 3"? Glad I didn't bet you. The strong -PNA/+NAO being modeled didn't really happen.

Honestly if Lamar is injured they should have been upfront with it, and left Huntley in. He played great in our biggest win of the season, against the 8-3 Bears. Lamar has 0TD in the last 3 games.

Yeah but they fumbled at the 1 one yard line which is a turnover although the defense never maintains possession (stupid rule - it should be offenses ball at the 20), and a kind of stupid offensive pass interference.. or it's 21 points in the 1st half.

I think we may need something else to happen. Strong El Nino's don't actually have a very high correlation with the PDO. You would think that ENSO would be more correlated to the PDO, since PNA is a main effect that comes to mind, but it only has 0.3-4 correlation. The two aren't actually as interchangeable as you would think. ^That's the 6 strongest El Nino's since 1950. ENSO more effects the actual North Pacific High, where the Pacific currents associated with the PDO are west of that.

90E being +6c anomalies at -130m may definitely precede an El Nino in the next 1-3 years. A few strong Kelvin waves would probably warm the entire ENSO subsurface pretty good.

At this time of the year cold air is the most important variable. -EPO is the best pattern for this. This is what the ideal pattern looks like at 500mb: The 12z GFS kind of has the -EPO pattern, although it's a little SW, which may ultimately create a little more of a SE ridge and a little more mixing or rain where the model currently has snow. Pretty close though.