Stormchaserchuck1

Will this be a cooler Summer??

Yeah, I think it will stay around -0.5c lower for the duration of the event. The big cold season 500mb low has been trending less and less intense in the progression of Strong Nino's for the last 70 years. Will be interesting to see if this one stays weak like 23-24.

The RONI isn't an index like the NAO or Solar cycle. It's relative ENSO index, to account for global warming. To compare differences in pattern in RONI vs ONI is just to talk about global warming trend of late. There's not a magical formula in RONI that makes it stronger than ONI a good pattern. You are basically just saying before 2010 was easier to get a cooler 500mb pattern. I'm pointing out that the area where ENSO has most impact - the N. Pacific - has correlated better to the RONI than ONI as of late, making RONI a better gauge to ENSO's impact.

Last two years were -1.1 and -1.0 RONI, so average of last 3 years is -0.2c/yr. I've found that 4/6+ same ENSO state shows strong tendency to reverse in the following +1-3 years. Likewise, +3-5 years after a Strong Nino (23-24) has El Nino tendency, so we are kind of hitting this from both angles.

5 of the last 6 years have been Nina. The average RONI for last 6 years is -0.73c/yr

N. Pacific is ENSO's greatest correlation East-based shifts the Canadian ridge more east

Most extreme March NAO on record, +2.69. The composite is actually a cooler May, when rolled forward. Just interesting - look at all this equilateral warmth later in the year, correlating with March +NAO

Previous most extreme for March was -2.47 in 1962

The SW, US heat ridge, spreading east through the Midwest, Tenn valley, and Mid Atlantic makes more sense!

Not any ENSO correlation.. slight PDO +correlation to the following Dec. A lot of general +SSTA correlation to +PDO and -SSTA correlation to -PDO Following Jan has 0.4 PDO warm/cold pool correlation.. PDO sustains like 63% of the time

Geez.

It's been hovering around 60 here. Was 59 when I shut the door earlier.

I remember models were showing a lot of moisture, for several weeks. Maybe it didn't pan out. I'm also talking about for the whole US.

SOI has been negative 10 days in row, albeit lightly negative.

>10 degree temp bust cool for highs today

I remember we got real wet at the end of Winter 22-23. It was foreshadowing the coming Nino. And 23-24 was wet like a Super Nino DJFM, but was really dry in November.

In 32 Moderate+ Nino's we've never had a Winter temp pattern with a warm SE and cold NE. 0/32. Credit to gawx for doing the research. The Cansips is not showing something reasonable.

I'm not too sure we go cold ENSO after this El Nino. We had 5/6 recent Nina years. History says 4/6+ reverses +1-4 years 2:1 (El Nino favored 2x over La Nina) We also had a Strong Nino in 23-24, history says +3-5 years after that, El Nino is also favored 2:1. +ENSO tendency for 27-28 and 28-29 may temper the Nina snap back.

Global SSTA are about as classic as it gets right now for later in the year Nino 3.4 El Nino ^Even the Atlantic matches lol

I plotted from Don's warmest DJFM Phoenix years.. it's surprising that the DJFM that occurred a year later is cold in the SW. It has historically snapped back the following year.

Good stuff Don. +4.2F over DJFM number 2 is amazing stuff.

88 in DCA just like that. Warmth is the story this March/April 1. When the SW, US is warm first, we usually bust high a few degrees.

My 7th 80 of the year? something like that? Maybe it's number of 76+. Either way, we had a glacier of snow for a month 6 weeks ago. Nice contrast!

I think it will be basin-wide like 2015-16 2015-16 is also a +QBO match later in the year, and Phoenix which broke it's DJFM Temp record by 4.2 degrees this past Winter, number 2 on record was 2014-15, before the 2015 El Nino. Best analog right now imo

The way Nino 4 is warming is so interesting. Again, only 2 April's on record had higher than +0.500 monthly for later in year >+1.2 El Nino's (out of 15): April 1997: +0.59 April 2015: +0.98 We are at +0.511 on April 1. There is so much warm potential energy for things to easily go strong. PhillyEaglesfan may not get his Strong Nina for a while.