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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    21z RAP has me getting 15-18"
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    And a log cabin specifically
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's not that bad because shorter wavelengths give us a favorable H5 low in the Gulf of Alaska. Our biggest snowstorms historically have that -H5 anomaly
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's actually not a big anomaly, because we have a 50/50 low and strong Gulf of Alaska 500mb low. NAO is technically positive, but there is ridging left over from the previous -NAO over the Hudson bay/E Canada, with a trough underneath of it. 500mb pattern close to us in latitude and longitude is pretty favorable.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    15z RAP keeps it rain for a while along I-95 while heavier rates change it to heavy snow in eastern MD/DE. Weird run.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAM throws a nice band back west Monday morning. Has the coastal low at 966mb
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Guess the super warm temps yesterday and high of 50 today isn't going to matter much.. I'd much rather it snow than be right lol
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Hrr is a blizzard! 12" here Stalls snowing well into Monday
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    I would be pretty excited if the Euro showed that
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Let's see. These types of situations might go with the models that are a few degrees warmer. I'm not just saying that - many storms hold the warm air when they are riding a frontal boundary like this, especially around DC.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's a much better model. NAM might be worse than the GFS.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Even at 60hrs, I'll take the Euro over the NAM.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm sure it's been mentioned but the 6z Euro is really warm. I was thinking models would start gravitating over to the GFS yesterday, when it was consistent and increasing every run, and other models were starting to trend. That was like 6 runs in a row with a near blizzard! We just don't do big snows without an optimal setup these days. These frontal boundary stationary fronts, with us being on the warm side, always go this way.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    When it starts warming at the surface by April, we'll see which regions are going where.
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really warming up in the eastern-subsurface. Probably going to start to surface in the next month or so. SOI isn't on board yet, but it has been lagging the last 3 years: 25-26 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 until October '25 24-25 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 at all 23-24 Strong Nino: SOI was Neutral until May 2023, when the El Nino began. Feb-March-April 2023 average SOI was +2.7/month.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Colder Spring probablity? AO/NAO/AAO run in decadal patterns, and run pretty together. Sept-Dec 2025 had a pretty good run of -AAO: 2025 -0.080 -0.271 0.733 1.138 0.509 0.209 0.753 0.357 -0.709 -1.236 -1.324 -1.136 That rolls forward to a -NAO signal for the following N. Hemisphere Spring (+6 months) [map correlation is default positive, with both sides included, so for -AAO it's opposite]
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    5 month SOI.. Oct-Feb 25-26 is still going to be the highest since 2022. And we're seeing more of a Nina pattern here in the 2nd part of February and March, despite warm subsurface
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Warmer overall right now, but not a "classic warming" This Winter is going to finish with greater warm anomalies than cold anomalies at 10mb.. which matches QBO. For the 4th Winter in a row.
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    SOI has been lagging the last few years 25-26 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 until October '25 24-25 RONI Nina: the monthly SOI never went >+10 at all 23-24 Strong Nino: SOI was Neutral until May 2023, when the El Nino began. Feb-March-April 2023 average SOI was +2.7/month.
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Still no signs of pattern change in March on long range ensemble models
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    I still have full snowcover from Jan 25. This was just taken
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    560dm ridge over DC?.. hmm might have a tough time cooling down
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think temps are going to be an issue
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Pretty warm look. Models haven't really been verifying that pattern this Winter though - let's see if it holds as we get closer, but +nao/+epo combo can be pretty warm and sustained for a little bit of time.
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Transition to El Nino should be fast
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