Stormchaserchuck1

Here's the Winter US Temp map Believe it or not, 5/6 of those +analogs were below average snow here.

We've had a hostile Arctic this late Spring/Summer so far It's been pretty amazing to not break 2012's arctic ice melt record for 13 years now. Since 2012, here are the analogs to pattern: Following Winter: It seems to "snap back" in the Winter, with -AO

Since 2012, this is what the following Winter looks like in years with -SLP May-Aug 60-90N vs +SLP (anomaly map below is showing negative base, with both sides included). This is why I think the Euro seasonal has that pressure map in the Pacific despite -PDO, and why the CPC is going cooler.

Actually us not breaking 2012's record in this time of exponential global warming, for now 13 years.. is just as impressive. 2021-2024

With 61% of the period complete, it's at +0.20 for DJFM NAO. Given the 0.54 sd, which has hit 11-9 since inception in 2005, it has a 50% probability of being in the range -0.34 to +0.74 Winter NAO.

I mean, it's pretty important. I think the pattern derives right from the subsurface.

CPC subsurface continues to be much different from TAO/Triton.. it's holding a warm pool in the western-central subsurface, below the dateline.

Barry obviously loves weather. He doesn't bother me.

SOI has been solidly negative for the first time in a while, during the last 3 days. This has occurred with the ENSO subsurface cold pool no longer deepening.. the anomalies have moderated from -5c max to -3c max. 5 Aug 2025 1012.75 1014.10 -18.03 4.89 2.94 4 Aug 2025 1012.63 1014.25 -19.66 4.67 3.20 3 Aug 2025 1013.49 1015.10 -19.60 4.77 3.40

Yeah, in the NAO roll-forward we would have to get -EPO to balance out those US Temps with such a strong +NAO going on. I just think it's cool how they pick their own unique landing place with the northern latitude trough, not in what's occurring or has occurred, but going forward.

^They don't often go extreme though. A lot of it is the average error factored in. Compared to the N. Hemisphere, we are about in the middle of the warm anomaly.

^Here's how they roll-forward

It's very interesting! consistency usually dominates. This is the next three 7-month periods for the NAO, going to April 2026. US Temps aren't as warm as you would expect AO is completely different rolled forward - it's not a negative H5 based over Greenland, but over the Arctic circle and north of Alaska!

Be happy it's not Winter July was the 6th consecutive month of +NAO. Cumulative NAO value of +3.75 in that time. July was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Cumulative AO value of +3.2 in that time. It's looking like August may be the 7th consecutive +NAO month, with a projected Aug 1-15 value coming in around +1. The odds of having 7 consecutive months in either direction is 1/64.

The CPC monthly page has updated July was the 6th consecutive month of +NAO. Cumulative NAO value of +3.75 in that time. July was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Cumulative AO value of +3.2 in that time. It's looking like August may be the 7th consecutive +NAO month. The odds of having 7 consecutive months in either direction at random is 1/64.

It snowed here 15 times last December through mid January in +PNA.. I will always take a +PNA pattern, I think it's somewhat underestimated. It also has 4x lower coastal SLP correlation vs -PNA.

Does the Euro develop La Nina?

Did you guys see the CANSIPS 0.0 month lead forecast for July? Congrats Iowa The Euro has had some big misses the past 2 Winters, from the Fall. I honestly think that seasonal models should be built to do better, You can run forward certain variables and get a picture. I always wondered if you take and combine analog data from 200 world cities, if it would produce a successful roll forward.

I don't think we will get a SE ridge if the Pacific H5 looks like that for the Winter. Their Pac ridge might be far enough south though.. I think it's persistence as last Feb looked like that with the dominant +h5 over 90N. Crazy how much it looks like June-July.

I think there is KU potential in mid-late January, but the wild card is the NAO. I don't think the NAO will stay negative for more than 10 days at a time this Winter.. if it can line up with what I think could be a GOA low pattern in January (if La Nina doesn't go too strong), then we might hit a good storm. If the ENSO subsurface is -4 to -6 during that time though, forget it..

There really hasn't been a strong/persistent Aleutian ridge since before the 23-24 El Nino. I mean for several years there we were seeing some big time patterns out there. It's been much weaker lately, making me think it probably won't be a big -pna Winter, could average negative in the mean though.

That's probably true unless something over powers it like a Strong La Nina. I think, like last year, a +NAO tendency will try to happen with +pna/-epo, I just don't know if the "snap back" from last year is going to negate that. Call the theory weird, but I've been testing it and it's been working out.. a year ago we had like 10 days of -5 AAO readings around now, a month ago I said that will probably mean we get +AAO around the same time this year and it was strongly positive in early July and now early August. PDO years that "don't work" one Winter work at a coefficient of 1.25x the following year. Just random statistical stuff, but I think given the background state we are kind of due for a more -PNA Winter.. maybe -EPO. I've also been thinking, how bad would a 01-02 +EPO-like Winter be these days? It's actually been a little bit of time since the EPO has been in a strongly positive state for the Winter, and that index is very powerful at resulting US weather. I think a 01-02 style +EPO would probably put us in the 70s down here in the Winter on multiple days, I guess given the WPO and EA.

Nevermind, I found the link that you had sent me (thank you).. It's actually not what I thought I saw posted. This confirms the un-correlating NAO in the last 10 years, although I think the Pacific pattern has a lot to do with it (notice the big anomalies over the West coast, usually the NAO runs 0.1-0.2 correlation out there). I think it's been -PNA/+EPO with -NAO and +PNA/-EPO with +NAO.

I thought you had posted a US Climate division data correlation map, showing >0.5 temp correlation with the NAO over the last decade, almost everywhere in the CONUS during the cold season. This was maybe 9 months ago.

That's kind of been the H5 pattern this Summer though, atmosphere leading. Now it does run forward (consistency of the NAO/AO) at a 0.2-3 correlation, but something to look at is the relative SSTAs in comparison to the pattern.. if it runs warmer, that means there is probably warm subsurface fueling the stream and cold season +NAO chances would be heightened, because that kind of thing is harder to shut down, it's more of a macro happening.