Stormchaserchuck1

I made a new thread This one should still continue through the Winter, as effects of yearly ENSO state are felt through the following March.

The subsurface has warmed significantly over the past few months. That's +4c in the central-ENSO-subsurface. TAO/Triton is a little more conservative in their readings than CPC, and it still has a >+4c area in the western subsurface I went through, since data became available in 1985, and found the 10 top analogs to broad subsurface state in January-February, like we have now. There are 5 positive analogs, 5 negative analogs. It should be noted that a lot of analogs had a warm/cold western part vs a cold/warm eastern part, in contrast, and I didn't use those, I only did the whole subsurface based warm or cold. Jan-Feb 2026 so far -1) 2025 -- This later in the year was ENSO Neutral (0-1-0), with the ONI peaking at -0.5c, but not for 5 consecutive months. The RONI in 26-27 was Weak-La Nina, -1.0c +1) 2023 -- This later was a Strong El Nino (1-1-0), ONI peaking at +2.1c, RONI peaking at +1.5c +2) 2015 -- This later was a Strong El Nino (2-1-0), ONI peaking at +2.8c! RONI peaking at +2.4c +3) 2014 -- This later was a Weak El Nino (3-1-0), ONI peaking at +0.8c, RONI peaking at +0.6c -2) 2007 -- This later was a Strong La Nina (4-1-0), ONI peaking at -1.6c. RONI peaking at -1.6c +4) 2002 -- This later was a Moderate El Nino (5-1-0), ONI peaking at +1.3c. RONI peaking at +1.5c -3) 1999 -- This later was a Strong La Nina (6-1-0), ONI peaking at -1.7c. RONI peaking at -1.7c +5) 1998 -- This later was a Strong El Nino (7-1-0), ONI peaking at +2.4c. RONI peaking at +2.4c -4) 1994 -- This later was a Moderate El Nino (7-1-1), ONI peaking at +1.1c. RONI peaking at +1.4c -5) 1988 -- This later was a Strong La Nina (8-1-1), ONI peaking at -1.8c. RONI peaking at -1.9c So out of the hand-picked 10 best analogs of the past 40 years, 8/10 (80%) became the same ENSO state (warm subsurface to El Nino, cold subsurface to La Nina), 1/10 (10%) was Neutral the next year, and 1/10 (10%) was opposite. The total cumulative ONI peak for the 10 top analogs since 1985, was +13.9c, an average of +1.39c per year (Moderate ENSO state). CPC in January gave these probabilities I now see the RONI is linked on the CPC page. Very good! (Edited analogs above -- the RONI is good because it neutralizes the global warming skew, where ENSO has warmed on average about 0.2-0.3c vs historical) Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) Mid January IRI models forecast. I will edit these if someone links more recent forecasts. Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per RONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. Since 1994, only 7/31 ENSO years have been Neutral, per ONI. 24/31 have either been La Nina or El Nino. Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. You can see this post-1998 general La Nina pattern clearly in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere's Hadley Cell, High pressure right above and below Nino 3.4: ^People say it's a decadal PDO state, I think it's a decadal cold-ENSO state. That map encompasses the most recent 333 months.

Subsurface is torching. Should I start an El Nino thread for 26-27?

It was 71F in Nashville today. The next few days may bust a little bit warmer, although snowcover may keep it cooler.

Yeah it's the GFS, but Here's later that day.. probably a little extreme but it shows that there is some potential for a nice warm up. Sounding says DCA is 75F.

Too bad we had a Nina STJ this year. It was a nina-stj last winter too. Too bad, the AO was favorable

I'll probably give it a 3% chance for all snow at this point. 15% chance for some snow at some point, at least on I95.

Something like 31/762 cases does not support a forecast position.. What's your call on High temps Feb 15-16?

Boring. Your map of snow events completely missed the +450 Aleutian anomaly. This coming storm is not a good platform to base this "it doesn't snow anymore in marginal" stance.

Because the PNA isn't neutral

I don't think it's a marginal setup at all..

Feb-March's 2018-2026 so much more -PNA than the past.. like 160% of number 2. That's interesting! Maybe it has something to do with temps starting to get warmer after Jan 27th, and the start of the rise to spring right after? It's something interesting to watch this Feb-March too.. does the 8-year trend persist?

That's why I said it's extreme. It's extremely extreme coming up, too.

We have had a smaller % of neutral setups.. the lowest DC's high temp in the Wintertime gets is 40F, Jan 27. Baltimore gets down to 39F. 2-3 weeks surrounding that it's mid 40s. We need "neutral" for marginal setups, not 3std -PNA's.

So why is -PNA more extremely warm and +PNA more extremely cold lately? Dunno.. maybe it's something we aren't seeing. AGW isn't PNA consistency though.

Here's my favorite

Dude we just had one of the coldest 3 week stretches in history, and it was the 2nd time that happened this Winter. It's not all lost omg! We are just in extremely bad Pacific patterns lately, in the wintertime. You're underestimating the Pac influence a little bit. More neutral is what you're looking for, not +450dm.

^Pac ridge is about as unfavorable as a spot as it gets in the 20-25 plot.. it's a little further west in the 1970s, allowing some space for gulf of alaska negative anomaly.. our snowiest patterns are negative gulf of alaska, so those little differences are actually big.. it's fragile.

All I care about is getting the forecast right.. why we don't snow anymore as the past is your own tangent. I don't think it's as big of a difference as you make it look, but I don't want to spend a lot of time arguing that.. since 2017 I've observed a downstream bias in medium range models with PNA. Adjustments and make a forecast accordingly, it has worked out so far. Want to guess what the high temps are on the storm day? 45 in DC? 42 in Baltimore? Feb 15-16

AMO? -AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j

You've been pointing out anomalies, saying there is a chance. This is the Feb months SE ridge correlation to -PNA.. 48-20 is 73 years, so 73 points of monthly data. Breaking it down daily probably gives higher correlation numbers.. our mean temp in Feb in -PNA is Upper 40s, everything considered.. 1940s,1950s, and now

Even so, it's a bad pattern by a long shot. Classic -PNA. It's warmed a little yeah, but the 2000s pattern does not favor snow when that >250dm ridge appears in the Pacific. Your map yesterday was really missing that anomaly. Pay attention to it more - it's a pretty good correlation, on both sides. medium range models do have a slight bias.

Not a perfect pattern is +450dm -PNA Aleutian ridge and <5000dm in Alaska.. it's an extreme shift. If the PNA were like +100dm, could have snowed marginally? Sure.

What we don't want to see in the long range is that -PNA ridge pinching off NW to cutoff over Russia, while a low comes underneath of it in western Canada and Alaska.. could flood US with warm air down the road if it evolves like this. Earlier it was looking like the Pac ridge was wanting to eventually go polar, but this is how models have trended the last few days.. Possibly if the MJO were to stay strong, it would support this pattern, going through Phases 3-6

GEFS and CFS say MJO as a driver doesn't get cold again until the 2nd week of March