Stormchaserchuck1

384hr 0z GEFS Problem is where the Polar Vortex is MJO may offer some help by the 2nd week of March if it can stay amplified

97-98 was a huge El Nino, then we were followed by 3 La Nina's, 2 Strong Nina's. Huge El Nino's have been reversed in the following 3 years. Something interesting to ponder. Is it because of these strong El Nino states that we are getting multi-year Nina states in the years that follow? It's been a decadal pattern though, yeah, starting after the 97-98 Super Nino. Some think it's because of the low solar 2001-2020 that we hadn't seen that low since the 1800s.

Per RONI, 5 of the last 6 years (20-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 7 of the last 10 years (16-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 11 of the last 19 years (07-26) have been La Nina. Per RONI, 15 of the last 28 years (98-26) have been La Nina. That's >50% La Nina since 1998. It should be 33.3%.

Nice cold shot on 0z GFS. Dry, but one more dip into Winter

I love snow, but 4 months of cold for flurries more 6x so far this year is not worth it lol. I love being outside, having the windows open and stuff. I love the Spring. GFS looks cooler though. After Feb 19-20, looks like another decent cold shot thereafter. Kind of keeping up with the theme of the Winter so far.

Backdoor front Feb 19 on 0z GFS, keeping us in the 40s. Let's see what the Euro shows. GFS not really a good model.

It just snowed south of Tampa. Islip NY just had 19 consecutive days with a low temp of 19° or colder, the longest stretch on record, going back to the 1800s. It snowed 10" in Florida last Winter, which was the most on record for the state since the 1800s, previous record 4". There is meteorological reasoning, it's not because Donald decided to drive his car today. I'm not arguing with you global warming in general: There are macro stats that explain it well. I think it's more about you complaining and not wanting to concede that this was predicted 8 days ago, by methods you disagreed with. I'm not really engaging in your tangent about "where have all the borderline storms gone". I said it before, and I'll say it in the future, the Pacific with +450dm is extreme, and a fast Pacific jet disconnects the northern stream, and floods the US with low level warm air. A storm like this gets cutoff from the freezing line. It's not a borderline event at all: Our average high temp in the heart of Winter in strong -PNA is mid 40s. I don't care if 6% of the examples broke the trend. I know in 97-98 we had these "perfect track rainstorms" all the time.. I think 72-73 too. etc. I know the average statistics, and you are riding hard on anomalies, it usually won't work out.

Strong -PNA's and +EPO downstream effect is underestimated in the medium range by all models.

PNA has a NAO correlation in late Feb/March, so it seems more neutralized than it really is if there is no NAO help.

Yup that was 8 days with high temperatures in the 10s we just had! It snowed south of Tampa. It used to rain all the time mid Winter in the 1960s and 70s.

Something is wrong with AI models

It's a PNA/EPO issue, which I guess you could say is a PDO issue. We just had one of our coldest mid-Winter stretches on record... AGW stuff right now is just complaining. Feb/March has been the same anomaly in the Pacific for 9 straight years. Let's figure out why!

Just because I've been tracking it, 00z Euro is 64F for DCA 2-19, and 66F 2-20. 0z eps peaks 62F on 2-19.

Full snowcover here. Was surprised to see so much of it stick after today.

Seasonal models did pretty good this year. I remember you pointing out the much drier than average forecast. They were also colder than the 10 and 30 year averages. We were lucky to get that 1 STJ storm out of nowhere. It was Boston's 8th biggest snowfall on record, and the low pressure wasn't even that strong.

March starts off with +EPO, per 18z GEFS. We could talking about 50s and 60s if this verifies: 12z EPS also had a similar Pacific pattern Does anyone know what our snowfall stats for February 2018-2026? 2016-2026?

WPO pattern is pretty far away, +EPO is closer and it will be about as positive as the WPO is negative (-0.3 for -WPO vs +0.5 for +EPO)

End of the 0z Euro is warming up really good in the Midwest. Run it forward a few days and we might be talking about 70s. 117hr Euro is 57F in DCA 186hr Euro is 67F in DCA 288hr Euro is 64F in DCA 354hr Euro is 63F in DCA 4 separate fronts.. -PNA pattern Model run is probably too extreme, but it does highlight a warmer pattern coming up.

Looks very La Nina-like

QBO information, near real-time The Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) January 2026 was the 2nd lowest 30mb QBO Jan on record, 2015 was number 1: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index It will likely reverse to +QBO for Winter 26-27. It has a cold season Stratosphere polar vortex correlation, stronger stratosphere polar vortex is +QBO, weaker SPV is -QBO.

If they were using the AI model it would be higher totals earlier too.

I guess it's not fully included then.

I have found something interesting, since the 2012, N. Hemisphere Arctic ice melt low, the Summer sea-level pressure state has been reversing the following Winter. In the 2025-2026 ENSO thread, I used this to predict a -AO for Winter 25-26. Here was May-Sept 2025 SLP anomaly: Analogs [10] Following Winter of 10 analogs (+7 months) Winter 25-26 so far: Something to watch this coming warm season... do we get -SLP or +SLP anomaly over the Arctic (60-90N). Since 2012, -SLP has been followed by following cold season -AO, and +SLP has been followed by following cold season +AO.

7pm Sun is 0z UTC, which is when it's stopping. Maybe like 1 hour of light after that.