Stormchaserchuck1

Happy New Years from the 0z GFS

Thanks for doing it Roger. DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.5 -1.2 -1.7 -2.5 +1.0 +2.7 +1.5 +3.5 +0.7

Hooray! Number 2! I used Apr-May SLP in the North Atlantic, it's a strong indicator.

Wow, 3 of the 4 warmest December's were in the last 4 years. That kind of thing exceeds climate change, it means that we have a strong pattern in place that is several years ongoing..

Hey Larry, I agree it's probably not factored in. I was looking at the 18z GFS ensemble and that is really not much big below average temps in the first 5 days of the month. Then we really amp the SE ridge, so some places around DC could be +3 to +5 by mid month. By the 15th, the pattern is changing but it's still above average in the northeast. That means we need a really cold 2nd half of the month for the CPC's forecast to verify. I'm tempted to pull the trigger on a long NG contract Future. The reason why it would be March and not Feb is volume starts dwindling on the Feb contract around Jan 24th, and the run may go through the end of the month. I've seen enough CPC monthly stuff to know that they do have pretty high accuracy.

I want to do a little experiment.. CPC vs Natural Gas Futures. I am so tempted to trade this on my own, but I think a series of practice scenarios played out will give me a higher confidence, instead of jumping right in. Since mid-August, the pattern in the East has been cool. Don't quote me, but it might have been our coldest 4.5 month period relative to average in 10+ years. I personally think the Solar Max, with aurora borealis extending south, starting in May 2024, and lasting through Fall 2025 was associated with a pattern that gave us a lot of negative 500mb height anomalies 60-90N, for the first time since a 2020-2023: a period that was always warm 500mb everywhere. I made a list of analogs that had that warm season pattern (-SLP 60-90N), and it gave me a strong -AO signal for the following cold season (data good since 2012). CPC forecast today is going with a cold January in the Northeast! What's interesting is the very warm forecast for the 1st half of January, released the same time (today): That means Jan 18-31 is projected to be very below average in the Northeast.. now the first 5 days of the month are also cold with -NAO, but it's still a pretty big difference that needs to occur for the 2nd half of the month for that monthly forecast to verify. Natural Gas has been falling, and the March contract at $3.159 is very cheap, and favors a more +NAO Winter (I used a $4.50 as an "even" mark.. below it is more +NAO expected, above is more -NAO expected) The theory is, when and if it gets very cold in the 2nd half of January, will Natural Gas start rising every day, or is the forecast already baked in? I don't think it's in the market, or else the price would be higher in my opinion. I'm only talking about a 2 week period, so the difference will not be big, but let's see if the price rises, when and if it rises, in the 2nd half of January. To be continued...

And with the 1st of January projected to be very warm, they are going with a big pattern change for the 2nd half of the month: PNA has been negative every day this Winter since Dec 1st. LR models have it going positive for the 2nd half of January: If the CPC is right, it could actually get very cold Jan 20-30.

The start of an arctic pattern if it verifies

My dog is outside barking, so I go outside to get him and am surprised to see a flash of lightning to my NW! Does anyone have flurries or anything?

So Dec 2025 will be the most negative NAO Winter month (DJFM) since December 2010! 15 years, and 60 Winter months! With the 1st half of January looking like -NAO, we may beat the record for most -NAO Winter since 2010-2011. We need -0.24 for the Winter average to have that, and through Jan 15, we will have about -1.00, meaning that we need <+0.50 for the 2nd half of Winter to have the most -NAO Winter in 15 years! Nice longer term pattern brake.

Unfortunately, the Pacific 500mb doesn't change into a favorable state until mid month. (Unless models are wrong of course)

Interesting look for the 240hr storm With the Pacific H5, DC is usually a little too warm in reality, but places north of Baltimore could have a shot.

December 2025 is likely to be the lowest Winter month NAO (DJFM) since Dec 2010! 15 years! With -NAO projected for the start of Jan, it's also looking more likely that we'll have the lowest -NAO Winter (DJFM) since 10-11. We need to beat -0.24 Winter average for that to happen.

I've found that deep 500mb patterns are reversing year-to-year, at a much greater rate than random, 8x more likely to be a pattern than random. Jan 15 - Feb 5 last year had a +200dm Aleutian/GOA ridge. I was saying in the Summer, that period, Jan 15-Feb 5 could have a negative anomaly in that position.

Models are looking good for mid-January. The only issue is how far out it is. It's a shame this deep -NAO trough for the next 7 days will be dry, but -NAO's usually are a drier pattern in La Nina.

Pitt is only favored by -3 tomorrow.

I think CAPE has been drinking. You don't score 41 points on the road against a playoff team with your backup QB and fire your OC. It's interesting that Lamar has not beat a team over .500 all season.. both wins against good teams were Huntley.

I just know from experience that a bad Pacific/good Atlantic usually trends warmer. The NAO has rarely been negative in long duration since 2011, so yeah some of that is the NAO trending in the wrong direction. +EPO's can be underrated though, and models don't really get the strength of the Pacific jet right from this range. Sometimes it will trend away from +epo though.

Pacific isn't perfect is a 504dm Polar Vortex over Alaska lol. That's going to trend warmer unless the PV gets out of there..

Oh, I thought you were talking about a potential phase lol

564dm over DC and Baltimore?

In January we really need to change the PNA. It has a higher correlation with SE ridge or EC trough, than other months like Dec and March. +0.4 temp correlation in Jan. Hr384 of 12z GEFS is trying to change the PNA. It has a -NAO as well. I like the progression toward mid-January if it can hold going forward..

I didn't realize that we are getting nearly a +600dm anomaly over Greenland in 2.5 days. Big -NAO. And it reloads 3x. This is the 384hr prog from the 18z GEFS. I like the progression.. building -NAO (again), and a different Pacific evolving from -PNA

Today's Euro weeklies for Jan 19-26 have a colder look Equal chances on todays 3-4 Week CPC outlook

Not really going to do it with 507dm over Alaska. Surface cold air is cutoff.