Stormchaserchuck1

Just temper your expectations Barry.. A lot has to go right to have a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. but the trends are favorable right now - We had 20 named storms during a Strong El Nino 2 years ago, and we had 30 named storms 5 years ago. But there are a lot of factors that have to go right to generally get more than 16-17 in a season. I'd watch the NAO and Atlantic tripole in May.

Keep in mind that 20 Named Storms is tied for 4th most in Atlantic history.

no.. but keep posting them. more the better.

A lot of "neutral" indicators at this point. the best we have going for us is long term +AMO, but remember for 100 years, the average number of named storms/year was 9-10. Here's the SLP April to date It's running about a -0.2 correlation to the maps I posted above.. actually hard to get a hyperactive season without this tripole condition in April-May. We do have a nice low pressure near the Azores so far, which is somewhat good.

^Is that all time records, or forecasted? It looks like we have a really nice ridge setting up for the next 15 days!

I would put the Over/Under on number of Named Storms at 15.

Actually here's another aspect of that research.. this is a really strong correlation. sea-level pressure for April and May before biggest hurricane seasons since 1995.. 15 analogs plus and minus. I guess short term SSTs really do make a difference!

All that's being modeled is a ridge for the next 15 days.. through May 4th.

Half way through April we kind of have a reverse-tripole There's not a lot of big -NAO on models through May 1st, but it's not strongly positive either.

Since 1995, our most active Atlantic hurricane seasons have been preceded by a -NAO in April and May Atlantic tripole at 500mb.. -AO

Warmth in the 1-2 week

Summer pattern is so much more stable than the Winter. Year-to-year has a pretty good overall correlation, like +0.3. So you can expect at like 62% the same pattern as last year most likely, in terms of the H5. Fall I don't want to make a call on yet, I want to see if last years trend of +NAO's in the Summer continues or not. More +NAO this May-Aug may bring about a cooler Fall, imo (so more out to sea in the Atlantic late season). Hard to say on specifics.. watch the MJO. Are you familiar with it? When it's favorable there are like 4x more storms in the Atlantic than when it's unfavorable. And MJO is a 40-day oscillation, so it can be somewhat predictable when you get closer.

I would say Humberto is a cool name. Jerry seems like one that wants to be retired. We had a record +PNA this last Winter for non-El Nino. The correlation for following Hurricane season is above average H5 just about everywhere (surprisingly because the last 25 years have been more -PNA, with a warmer planet). Not as much tropical low pressure in that map, though You would say tropics are warming from lingering El Nino (because of the previous winter +PNA correlation). but it usually transitions. Still there is probably a left over El Nino signal in that correlation composite.. and we didn't have an El Nino last Winter.

Nino 1+2 still warm in April does have a slight correlation with warm Atlantic SSTA's peak season..

People forget about that QB sneak play that Andrew's was so successful with. A lot of 4th and short conversions. He's also the Ravens all time leader in receiving TD's

I thought it was surprising that the O's were 6th place world series betting odds pre-season. I guess the betters liked that they were young, but I could tell after the 2nd half of last year that that was an easy call under.

Nino 1+2 is cooling rapidly.. looks like Neutral ENSO for hurricane season

I probably wouldn't expect something too hot. The trend for the last 20 years has been a trough in the east/ridge in the west during the Summertime. Last year that pattern really changed, and I think we will see some year-to-year lingering effects from that this Summer. And the SW, US was +2F over their previous record last Summer! And is going to likely have a hot Spring, so some of that usually comes east +time.. I would at least expect an above average Summer in the east, and maybe comfortably so.

You got me thinking, since '79-80 was such a big +PNA Winter. and per CPC, this was record +PNA Winter non-El Nino. So the roll forward does actually have a decent correlation with hot Summer.

Yeah, in my Winter forecast I got the state of 10mb correct (from +QBO and La Nina), but didn't get that it would translate to -AO at the surface.. about 75% of the time the AO is the same state as 10mb.

I made a pretty good research about a strong 10mb vortex Nov-Feb, switching strongly to the opposite state in March. This year is about the most extreme example of that, so it's valid analog work. Analogs favor a hotter Summer.

A lot of models are showing above average temps just about everywhere in the CONUS for the Summer.. they had 80% of the country above average for DJF though, and it ended up being 70% below average.. not a perfect science, but it seems like a lot is favoring a hotter than average Summer. SW, US heat ridge is expected to really pick up in a few weeks, and that's usually a leading indictor to weather further east +months time.

Yeah, overall the SSW underperformed a bit wrt to below average temps in the East and Europe.

Very cool. Nice pictures. Your trip to the UP of Michigan was probably my favorite. They had one heck of a LES season.

I'll have to do a write up in the next few days, now that US climate division data has updated.. I actually did good on methodology, but it didn't translate at the surface to -PNA (SE ridge), so that was my flaw. Natural Gas though jumped 60% this Winter, so if you went with the CPC's cooler forecast, you could have made money.