Stormchaserchuck1

-PNA is saturated now. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/HEMI500/5dayloop.html Usually when it's switching from long term +PNA to -PNA, we can get colder, but not this time.. look forward to a rainy 15-20 days.

Look at this wave train Maybe someone could run stats on how it goes PNA negative/neutral, coming out of >4SD -NAO (rain/snow?). Because the moisture will be there.

STJ is really active for 10-12 days with retrograding NW Atlantic low.. probably all rain imo, pretty high confidence lock, but something we have not seen in a while(such a wet pattern).

After our last two, only two, strong -PNA/-NAO's in long-wavelength season, since Jan 2013.. it gets cold (high pressure upper atmosphere lol)

Can you believe this +5-7F subsurface cancels itself out in the global + wavepatterns? (little relevance)

Pacific and Atlantic have been matching too, at -0.70 correlation. A 4-5SD -NAO is going to be 3SD -PNA (5-6SD -NAO is going to be a 4SD -PNA) (3SD -NAO is going to be a 2SD -PNA, 0time). No snow for us for a while, at least through 384hr.

STJ is actually really juicy

I'd go with no snow through 384hr.. Higher chances next December is +PNA, at least. lol

I like the -AO that's been building, especially over Russia, since August.

It doesn't snow when the PNA is moderate to strongly negative recently, that's our worse pattern, even with >2SD -NAO. MR/LR pattern reminds me a lot of March 2018: Good news is it was followed by a cooler April. Let's see what happens. Second recent case of -PNA, -NAO was Jan 2021 cold again followed that's it since 2013.. as far as analogs go.

The last 3 +QBO/La Nina Winter's have been -NAO December seems to be dominant/middle

Looks like it's turning positive. Reminds me of 09-10 actually.

Look at how wet the Pacific got at hr384 6z

Look how wet the Pacific/STJ is at the end of this run.

0 for Atlanta the whole year.

NAO has been negative on Christmas last 7/8 years by +100dm> , while the Dec-Mar average NAO for the period is -60dm-median-average. (since 2013/4) You can throw out this +NAO signal

Do you like this, Pacific-Atlantic ridges hook up 20 analogs Dec 20.. overall signal randomizes a lot Dec 25 +PNA Dec 30 There's my +PNA Pattern change into January

Kick this -PNA out of there.. 3 contours on the GOA low

ACCESS TO PR/OT

Weak Went through a 4-5 year dark period here

I actually like the pattern after, +NAO/+PNA, probably better, if not for the high-tendency percentage of lifting out of -NAO. personal theory is that we do better for snowfall these days in +NAO.. -0.60 overall skew(neutral[neutral](1 being good -NAO, -1 being bad +NAO, -0.60 of that (NAOalone))

What a nice day! I've noticed these are the best days (-PNA, EC trough/-500mb,neutral NAO)

Love it.. this is better than the -NAO in my opinion (black arrow) (cold western Europe), is actualy a higher SD than -NAO (These 15D-16D models correlate at 0.80.)

Coming out of west-based strong -NAO block. In real time, I have seen this go for 5/5 in the last 5 times, and it's ~80-90% in the longer term (after the fact/theorized) we get a big storm,or close to it, as the west-based -NAO block is lifting out. ^-NPH (east Pacific) developing on this 384hr model, and I have done research showing a 0.80-0.90 correlation jump with +/- anomalies at 40-45N recently(minus indexes) ,in unlikely areas, jumping to key regions (PNA). Our best pattern for snow on the east coast is a Gulf of Alaska low pressure. ^italics I think this favors a neutral or +PNA in that time. Could be a good mixture for a big snowstorm. That +400dm+ -NAO lifting out has been really strong correlation-indicator in real time.

You probably aren't aware but people have only talked to me on here, after someone in the physical interacts with me, enters building, etc. fwiw. Thanks