Stormchaserchuck1

I think we are trending toward a hotter Summer. These are the last 3 Summer's https://ibb.co/WHB3jnc

The high pressure just isn't circulating cold air under it. On models, it trends to the time of happening, as a Pacific pattern change. The area that correlates is like this. https://ibb.co/pw2HBm8

In the anomalies, W->E is proving much superior to S->N. a Low in the N. Pacific ocean is more likely to give us cold than a High to the north. It's an anomaly than began about 10 years ago, and has increased in correlation over time, peaking now. I think it's interesting, 500mb low over Greenland elongates south to the SE, while a block over Greenland, seems to pump the SE ridge under it or correlates to a N. Pacific that pumps the SE ridge downstream.

Iceland looks awesome. It looks like you picked a good time to go there.

It's pretty amazing that droughts never stick.

Besides post-Super Nino's of 1983, 1992, and 1998, the most Nino1+2 warmth was in these years in April.. it has historically been a lagger vs leader. 1953 24.13 26.27 27.22 27.00 25.43 23.43 21.96 21.18 21.06 20.84 21.51 22.22 1965 23.87 25.78 26.48 26.88 25.95 24.35 23.00 22.38 21.10 21.34 22.09 23.16 1983 27.21 28.13 28.72 28.86 28.26 27.36 25.76 23.93 22.10 22.00 22.05 23.03 1987 25.56 27.07 27.93 27.10 25.93 24.10 22.98 21.82 21.83 22.47 22.80 23.48 1992 25.03 26.71 27.73 27.72 26.63 23.98 21.89 20.87 20.76 21.02 21.59 22.71 1998 28.12 28.74 29.23 28.22 27.14 25.36 23.37 21.97 20.95 21.35 21.51 22.63 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/nina1.data They all dropped >5c later in the year.. 53-54 and 92-93 were subsurface El Nino's but neutral in Nino 3.4 in the Winter. These 3 were the coldest, and they turned into 2 Neutral and 1 Weak Nina. 1950 23.01 24.32 25.11 23.63 22.68 21.33 20.31 20.12 19.56 19.99 19.85 21.72 1954 22.66 24.88 25.17 22.45 21.43 20.66 19.13 19.31 19.02 18.98 20.20 21.34 1962 23.83 25.37 24.36 23.16 22.90 21.77 20.64 20.24 19.99 19.84 20.78 21.72 You can also see how Nino 1+2 warmth/cold in April is possibly correlated to rise in global temperature, or at least it has been vs Nino 3.4.

NFL is weird. Both sides are weird and I'm weard for talking about it. The Lamar thing is so awkward, yeah he wants 1/4 billion dollars lol. Wish he can repeat that 3TD-rushing game from his rookie season against Cleveland, flipping into the endzone.

Just saying, if you feel like something is "taking you away from this world", do work. Do work to be here. simple. too many people complain I think about judgement.

If Nino 1+2 could remain this warm for another 1-2 months, that would be impressive. We haven't really seen anything anomalous since 2012. 15-16 Super Nino was a sliding scale down of past Strong Nino's, imo. It's a -PNA era since 2010 and 2013 for whatever reason. I've seen a lot of neutral (even-out) patterns the last few years...

We've seen 3 rounds of higher latitude blocking empty out to well above average mid-latitudes. We'll see if the El Nino is a variable that could conquer this.. My point about 65-66, which I've seen with other developing strong Nino's, is that they historically are colder times for the globe, before it gets going).

I wouldn't forecast a less active Atlantic hurricane season until the warmth gets into Nino 3.4. May 9-12 is a good test, the central subsurface is warming pretty strong today vs yesterday.

Everytime a ridge of significance appears to our N or NE (-NAO-west), a -PNA also appears. https://ibb.co/BjvSZKk These blocking patterns have emptied out to some really warm global warmth, felt over the East coast. This could possibly be a hot pattern by mid-May. https://ibb.co/Mgh4tQ8

I just think this is amazing. We probably aren't going to get a cold Winter. https://ibb.co/9Vsw203 [NAO theorum]

Expect a good window for ENSO warming May 10-12. I want to see SOI/NOI shift stronger if we are going to go stronger. Here was 1966. https://ibb.co/L04dXDX It was colder everywhere, I think we are heading toward a hotter summer 1965 https://ibb.co/5xLqwz7

DCA +1.8 NYC +1.8 BOS +1.8 ORD +2.0 ATL +2.0 IAh +1.5 DEN +2.0 PhX +2.0 SEA +2.4

I've never heard of Ron Paul. A lot of guys are out of touch, addiction to numbers.

Every time we get a -NAO block, a -PNA of validity and strength develops/new model trend, everytime. https://ibb.co/BtkQrPH Eventually someone will discuss it with me muahahaha

Look at this, just constant development of -PNA and/or +EPO with regards to all and any -NAO blocks, strength.. https://ibb.co/BtkQrPH These are model trends

Big deal https://ibb.co/52JLZG3 https://ibb.co/zh1Pxpw We'll probably see more like this in the next 10-20 years.

I've seen so many things move just to balance out the equation in the last 2-3 years.... https://ibb.co/ySJCrTy (Predicted all kind of things with the theorem, Dec +PNA next year, Feb, March -PNA this year, etc..)

Almost May now.. and we have a June "ENSO cooling" in this cycle that we may come up against. I think we are seeing a reflection of global max, that's it. Although it is a little unique, and should even out to maybe a Moderate event. https://ibb.co/XbQ3gWj

Yeah, -PNA not really breaking. There is some GOA Low signal on LR models, but 1) trend continues for more -PNA as we get closer 2) -NAO cap remains in place, we never trend more -NAO, somewhat consistent +NAO decadal cycle. This tells me that the same patterns that we have seen since 2013, 2016, 2019 and lately continue to hold.. There is a Global warming trend, and Nino 1+2 seems to point and match that right now imo.(We have seen a lot of Nino 1+2 vs Nino 4 volatility since year 2000.)

For how warm Nino 1+2 is, the N. and S. Hemisphere are just that cold. https://ibb.co/1Z8T76P (reaching about the same SD happening (combo of both areas), adjusting for global warmth)

Now we are looking at constant +PNA. Look for things to get better in the El Nino-world.

Today's warmth is a 5-6SD happening, as we have a -WPO, -NAO, +PNA. Those vs the SE ridge is the 5sd, pretty cool.