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Stormchaserchuck1

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Everything posted by Stormchaserchuck1

  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    40% average snowfall every year for 20 years.
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    -PNA has to shake, sometimes the EC storm threat will take over and dominate N. Hemisphere pattern (usually it trends back to -PNA in the last few days).
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    The information in that thread may have gone Penn State Meteorology Department
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    little relevant science left
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    climate is running like an old record.. anti-global warming I guess, technology like this was 1920-40s.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what happened last time we had a Kelvin Wave in La Nina in the Winter (Dec 20-Jan 5)
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    This is what happened last time we had a Kelvin Wave
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    18z GFS had a 588dm ridge on the West coast. 12z GEFS had nothing at all. With this subsurface-ENSO configuration, we aren't going to see a west-based -PNA in Jan and Feb, like we are seeing now in Dec. Jan 500mb could be similar to last year.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah it seems like we are building up a lot of potential energy.. that's all maybe
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    >+7f hitting 180W now.. they sometimes look like this before Strong Nino's but it's December.. 12/5. atmosphere seems to consider Jan-Mar in the subsurface historically. I think I found it was like 3-1-3 before then.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Same as last year though. (Subsurface)
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^Same as last year though.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Analogs for Dec 21-29 +PNA (snow) are: 2005, 2002, 2001, 1995, 1975, 1973, 1963*, 1952, 1950.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Analogs I am coming up with for Dec 20-24 are: 2005, 2002, 2001, 1995, 1975, 1973, 1963*, 1952, 1950. (Dec 20-24 is rigid, make it Dec 16-29 those years). 1) Dec 21-29+PNA, 2) Dec 10-20-NAO
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Poor DT. When the PNA is negative, and has been in that phase for >20 days in December, our odds for snowfall are significantly low. Especially since it's technically not Winter yet. Dec 20-24 is our window.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    Does don or anyone know what NYC snowfall is like, coming out of a 4SD -NAO? Better yet, what happens, when that rise is associated with a positive PNA/or GOA low as I think we are going to reverse thisv. could make a window a few days before Christmas
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
  18. Stormchaserchuck1
    Thanks. Here's the thread
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Could be a white Christmas.. as lifting out of strong -NAO and +PNA is very happy historically. Could be a 10"+
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    -NAO rebuilds while strongly negative on models 3 times. v 384hr is +400dm still. Dec 21-24 looks like the window per 18z GFS ensembles. (PNA should be positive then too.. could be a big one)
  21. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty nice +PNA coming up Dec 19-29.. don't expect snow before then imo 1-year reverse correlation has been running <-0.50, and this one is extreme..
  22. Stormchaserchuck1
    initial point actually fell apart somewhat.. as the -NAO (high pressure) dominates theory was >1.5x cold-sustained/-NAO condition in Europe/w. Atlantic was a difference maker 45N, but N. Atlantic high pressure completely filled in. I still think we will +PNA Dec19-29. Same idea pushed back a few days..
  23. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think we will probably do this here.. 1 year later (reverses)
  24. Stormchaserchuck1
    We've had a pretty good <-0.00 correlation one year to the next ... let's see how this one does. (RNA)
  25. Stormchaserchuck1
    Only -NAO/wetter than average December.. 11/12 were drier than average What a cold-skew map! In 1997, when the 48-20 averages were >than 0.
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