Stormchaserchuck1

1997, 2001 analogs (97-98/01-02). Love the -NAO in Dec when it's wetter lol

I would bet on +PNA conditions in April, and -PNA default in March, and maybe something resembling March31-Apr1 1997, but that's "3rd position point" of tampering/\/. lol(the storm correlation if it happens) (^Nevermind +PNA March-Apr-May 2023, we had a strong N. Pacific Ocean 500mb vortex last March-April-May, which I think is this emerging El Nino already considered. [Extra point, I haven't been too scientifically oriented.] can obviously do better...

We are getting warm to near record warm in the western ENSO subsurface now.. this is *C, so if it's *F, that's about +10F, or 10degrees above average.. subsurface water normal temperature of 55 degrees would be about 65 degrees now. Differences in the N. Pacific pattern happen starting around 170W and -200m, to 120W and -100m.. that region is overall negative anomalies right now (favoring RNA, -PNA) Only years that were this extreme in the subsurface were 1997..March. and 1982 Jan/Feb. If I'm wrong, someone correct me (memory from ~5+ years ago). I think this favors a Strong El Nono, with 70% chance of overall El Nino conditions later this year. But we are hitting strong -PNA in the first few days of February on LR models, so an atmospheric correction (nolag) has occurred?

Everything to Dec19-29 will adjust (I've been looking at 4 model runs a day for 20 years). +PNA Dec19-29, will give us a less pronounced -EPO, and because the Atlantic has been negatively correlating, probably less of a -NAO, although we have developed a -NAO tendency around Christmas since 2014, happening 7/8 years, with an average +120dm anomaly, vs the -60dm +NAO for Dec-Mar in the combination of those 8 Winter's. (re: 18z GFS ensembles) I think the -NAO tendency for Christmas 12/25.. will adjust to -EPO/+PNA, so watch for that gravity. 12/25 -EPO/+PNA and 12-19to29 +PNA.. besides that the rest of the N. Hemisphere pattern likely will flatten out/neutralize, LR models for the next 4-8 days will adjust accordingly<-.

fear not.. Dec19-29 is coming

I didn't even know it was rain. We average 3" of snow in December, so that's important to remember..

Pacific pattern flip We'll start tracking snowstorms once the Pacific gets out of this -PNA+EPO.

ENSO is kind of getting broadbrushed by greater global happenings. In the subsurface there is a +5-7f warm pool, when this moves across 180W, we usually go +PNA. This will be 3/3 indicators for the Dec19-29 period (another is global 40-45N consistency since Aug). Another is the strong reverse correlation of -0.70 to -0.90 of last years conditions: And last year we had our strongest -PNA on record for 10 days. That's like -0.90 correlation. I like that the STJ is wetter than normal. That's not that common for a La Nina, but that Kelvin wave hitting the central subsurface could be correlated (last years Kelvin wave was drier). I hate -EPO now as it's High pressure in the north, and today we have +500dm -NAO and record lows by 4-5 degrees. they eventually skew the overall pattern warmer. (Sorry I hate wasting my energy.)

The PNA will go.. Positive Dec19-29, watch models skew/trend

I wouldn't be surprised if 14-15, and 13-14, miss.

TGF Britian and France!

Oh, Earth, is your reality internal or external!

I'm thinking of the days when LES was more common. Pretty amazing how warm it gets in -NAO. We have a +500mb extreme block. 570dm up into Greenland. Greenland.. Iceland.. something is suspicious huh

What was the Winter Boston got 2"? 2018-19? or 17-18?

^+500dm -NAO.. 4 SD's I think negative.

Subsurface is +5-7f in some spots, despite a strong Nina at the surface.. pretty incredible. we are stretching waves it seems. most normal analog is 1987-reverse. (Nov 1987-Feb 1988 cold subsurface, in Mod Nino)

^much wetter than average pattern in probably +PNA Dec19-29

^they are just basing current conditions. -EPO's verify colder, unless it trends back -PNA (which is not on models now)

I always forget that you guys don't get snow randomly.

My milk expires Dec 24

I love it smooth this out backward

yummy we may hit some of the moisture from these storms (model timeframe adjustments)

I expect +PNA Dec19-29.

I wouldn't be surprised of the -EPO on LR models evolves into more of a +PNA

Stronger the +PNA.. the more south.. I think the -EPO won't be a strong, and we'll see a general Aleutian low for ~10 days starting on this day Obviously, these models correlate at 0.80-0.85, but that's the way it will adjust