Stormchaserchuck1

-NAO will likely rule the pattern March 9-19, -PNA until March 9. There is a stronger precipitation correlation than temperature. Models now develop a +EPO Day 7>, so it may also be hard to get highs under 50° when the -NAO initially begins.

I know I was terrorized until I posted on weather message board. Judgement ensues here..

18z GFS: Baffin Island Low dominates. -PNA dominates. Look at this piece of energy dropping into the NW @119hr: (Tracking the warmup.)

Have to wonder if a big SE ridge early Spring preceeds any kind of Atlantic hurricane season. Last time was 2017,2018,2019.. average storms 17/yr. minus 2013 (SE trough): "The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was a well below average Atlantic hurricane season and the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes." minus 2022 that rocked a little the short term average for Febuary's "v": "The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was the first season since 1997 in which no tropical cyclones formed in August, and the lowest La Niña year since 1998." That's in this era since 2013..

EPS sucks as a model.. GFS ensembles trended to +EPO today Days 13-15 at 12z, ..3 contours over Alaska. To let you know, this current +EPO that is about to end is responsible for Isip, NY breaking February monthly record today of 71 degrees on Feb 16th.

Stratosphere warming on MR and LR models, takes some time to downwell.. The -NAO should max out March 9-19, 2023. That is our window.

The -NAO should max out March 9-19, 2023. That is our window.

We are trending more toward Weak/Moderate Last year's subsurface push all the way through was actually warmer.

The way it's been trending since 2013, and more so since 2019, is as the NAO goes negative, our temperatures peak. We probably will hit some nice 70s in the LR.

SW, US conditions can sometimes be a predictor.

It's been like a +NAO Winter with above average precipitation. The correlation did kind of reverse after 2013 (+NAO more often linked with -EPO/+PNA, -NAO linked with -PNA).

Good job buddy. I did 2nd guess my Winter thoughts when I saw your outlook. (We were trending cold in the Fall).

Now we have a tropical ridge over Florida. (may have to get past this first for -pna weakness, model has been initializing more on current conditions). I'm surprised you guys aren't talking about this. It checks back to a warm day or 2. I would watch for thunderstorms risk. (Maybe some 80s and 90s in the SE as the +NAO hooks up with -PNA.)

Man, do we have a shot of +NAO before it turns negative. Look at this map (warm pattern).

Last 4 GFS runs with max strength of the -PNA Pacific ridge in the MR: 12z: 593dm 06z: 592dm 00z: 593dm 18z: 592dm 12z GFS has it >590dm for 50+ hours.

That's about the warmest look it gets on the 18z GFS ensembles. We pop a +3 sigma SE ridge when the NAO goes negative, which is what I'm saying, we might flux the -PNA/+EPO initially.

negative anomalies over Alaska.. I dont know, always warmer and dry. We'll be looking forward to transition to straight -PNA/neutral EPO.

Trying. PNA vs NAO battle, which the PNA will win here on the EC unless something changes.

I'm doing more research on this "when the NAO/AO go negative in the first week of March, the PNA and EPO will flux (- and +)". On 3-1, where the current D15 ensemble mean model shows a +300dm -PNA (strong signal), in the last 3 years we had a strong PNA signal on this date 3/3 times (0/7 years previous). -minus 2022 +plus 2021 +plus 2020 This is what they looked like 3.9-12

There are signs of a -NAO/-AO developing in the first week of March on LR models, with a +120dm anomaly over the arctic circle at 384hr on the 18z GEFS. I think initially we will even out the cold signal with -PNA/+EPO-even, but watch to around March 7/8-18 for a possible window,bridge between the Pacific/Atlantic. (10mb warmings don't always downwell to -NAO+time, but about 70% of the time they do.)

I do want to say good job GFS not showing long range snowstorms, for many Winter's now, in verification. It was not like that in the early 2000s. -PNA signal in February is a reverse-ENSO historically by May-August that year(higher developing El Nino tendency). Correlation is 0.4 to a +NAO April (-PNA February, which should be top 15 all time this year). 0.3 correlation to -PNA March.

I missed this one straight up. Usually there are mathematical odds that buck the odds of mathematic-mean or something. Hurts fumble for a touchdown really hurt it. You could see that the Chiefs were better practiced/coached.

Mahomes had more yards from scrimmage this season than any player all time, 5,730 or something. Ralph Wiggum nailed it saying the line scares him.

Super -PNA. Yikes. watch the 60s if -pna/+nao verifies at that time of year. Not going to become a cold look very quickly. We actually need a +pna Luckily, the EPS sucks as a model because it's a follower

Unless that ridge in northern Europe takes over NAO domain, that will verify in the 60s/70s probably (3 sigma +NAO).