Stormchaserchuck1

Did someone say continuous +AO?

Wonder if we'll start to see this typical La Nina Fall pattern as temperatures start to descend into August

I think this strong STJ and very wet pattern is going to shut down pretty soon.

Subsurface is approaching -6c right now.. if that's normally 65F water, right now it's 55F. That's raw, not adjusted for global warming and everything.. I do think that it really can't go much lower than this given how warm everything is, without it being some anomaly. And the subsurface does fluctuate more than the surface (Kelvin/Rossby waves) It's still July.. if Aug comes in <-0.5 ONI, it has a good chance of making it 5 straight months.. even Sept would have to carry only through January for an official Nina. Tropical tidbits currently has Nino 3.4 at -0.6c, but I know CPC is much warmer.. looks like they are -0.1 to -0.2

East Coast coastal lows most correlated in February, big difference in coastal lows El Nino vs La Nina though.. that's why I don't think unideal winter tracks during the La Nina decadal state of late is that big of a deal.

Strongest correlation with the North Pacific High is January I guess the lag from Pacific to the east coast makes it seem like the most impacted month is February.

I remember doubting you when the subsurface was so warm in the Spring. You held to model biases/etc. and it ended up being a nice call. PhillyEaglesfan was also very adamant last year with the -PDO being so strong and us going into a La Nina for this year.

Nice job @PhiEaglesfan712 @GaWx for being bullish on La Nina prospects this year.

July will be the 10th consecutive month with +SOI. We did 31 straight +SOI months 2020-early 2023. The decadal La Nina state is holding, through the SOI.

La Nina is developing At the very least, this should mean a warm Fall. Increased chances for -PNA this Winter if that strong cold pool maintains (subsurface has more flux than surface SSTs. It could wane in the coming months. It did last year.)

La Nina is developing At the very least, this should mean a warm Fall. Increased chances for -PNA this Winter if that strong cold pool maintains.

You think that will enhance MJO Phases 4-5-6 in the Wintertime?

Electric storm to my south. They are probably getting crushed over Baltimore. Probably the best storm of the season.

Did you ever see what Feb 1936 looked like in Montana? Summer 1935 Phoenix had more 100+ consecutive days vs every other year on record to that point. That specific datapoint really did well last year rolled forward, Valentine Nebraska hit -32F in late February last year.

-5c now showing up in the TAO/Triton subsurface. That is "Moderate-Nina like".

It does seem like Atlantic SSTAs are not that different from the overall global warming trend. The cold in the 1970s and 1980s was notable and anomalous, but we might not get anything like that in the future, it may also just be a longer trend than we realize, thinking that there won't be cold Atlantic SSTs for the next 20 years or so. I was actually swimming in the south Carribean this Summer, the water was colder than I expected. There is definitely room for more warming

Is that for real? I know that from what I've experienced, there is not much difference from the Summers now and when I was a kid, actually it seemed a little hotter when I was a kid with more black-sky thunderstorms. I know there was a wave of "warmer Summer min's" in the early 2000s, but it doesn't seem to be an over-inflated trend, the temperature progression of Summers. On the west coast it is a different story, it's much warmer and drier. It may be more of a pattern: the drought in the SW, US started in 1995. Phoenix had broken records every Summer 2022-2024 I think until this Summer.

lmao another year where raindances thoughts from the spring about the fall is the most liked post in this thread, and it's turning out to be opposite. Not saying it's wrong or anything, I just think it's funny. Last year the most liked post was the possibility of a +PDO transition, and October ended up having the most negative reading on record. Now the most liked post is about a possible El Nino lol. raindance is usually pretty sharp with his analysis though.

Look at how much this cold pool is blowing up on TAO/Triton CPC usually lags a few days to weeks.

18z GEFS actually really gets us cool Aug 1-7. Could open the month with a -3 to -4 first week, per the ensemble mean.

I think he's getting excited about the warm water NE of Hawaii, but the Pacific Ocean current doesn't really work like that.. there are different flows in the Gulf of Alaska and east of Japan/north of hawaii where the warm water is.. It doesn't really trend to a new area, it's a uniform circulation that would have to change the whole thing to have that majical +PDO I do think there will be arctic blasts this Winter, as the Summer AO has been so positive, and Arctic ice is not really going to a new low, but it's most likely to occur in the Upper Midwest and NW.

We are really developing this Hadley Cell pattern in the Pacific.. this is vs the global temp

^He's talking about a +PDO, which is about the least-likely thing to happen on the planet right now. If the Winters cold, it won't be because N. Pacific SSTs are the driver. His analogs come out to a +1.5 Winter PDO average. We've never seen anything close to that jump before.. last year it almost neutralized from record levels in the Fall, but that might be the biggest jump on record, and H5 was leading.

You might say that these are not big anomalies, but this is the +AO that just won't go away. So persistent since May! There might really be the chance for some -EPO periods this Winter, as I believe a cold H5 over the Greenland part of the Arctic Circle correlates to -epo/+pna actually in the wintertime.. not sure I would forecast anything other than a negative PNA though with what's going on in the Pacific. We saw this same pattern last year until September.

I wouldn't discount a normal or slightly above normal snowfall season this year in the mean.. but the odds of a big one, like top 5% are probably much less... 1%