Stormchaserchuck1

The newly released CPC Winter outlook is colder than 90-95% of what they've put out in the long range for the last 10 years, for the CONUS. The NW, US is an interesting forecast, because the Euro, CANSIPs, and other seasonal models are above average there.

It's kind of silly to see the H5 change the SSTAs and then everyone go with what the SSTs show. For the next 10 days, we have a Gulf of Alaska low and Aleutian ridge.. the PDO is going to go pretty negative again. but these are the symptom, not the cause. It would actually be easier to roll forward PNA patterns/analogs instead of always looking at SSTs, because SSTs are actually always a few weeks behind. MJO/ENSO waves move the N. Pacific pattern, which in turn move around the SSTAs. Kelvin/Rossby waves are probably as close as your cause/main drivers. There have been a few more rossby waves with developing La Nina, which will probably create more -PNA tendency going through the Fall (maintaining a -2 to -3 PDO). Watch the ENSO subsurface, if cold water -200m strengthens, it's more -PNA/-PDO tendency, and warmer water there is more +PNA/+PDO. The gravity waves at the surface move these subsurface water anomalies.

It might be hard to sustain a +PNA this Winter.

Looks tropical to me. It probably does have a warm core, given the time of year and location.

Long range 12z GEFS at 384 has a pretty strong ridge setting up for the first few days of October NAO is also turning negative this September after being positive every month since last January.. this same thing happened last year, where the +AO/+NAO that was present all Summer long broke in September.

Hmm, I think global warming coincides with less low level clouds and clouds in general. This is why it was always surprising to see global precipitation increase, and precipitable water. It makes sense that warm/dry would be the trajectory, but for the last few decades more moisture has happened by a lot.

Ravens beat the spread again. They are 2-0 vs the line this season. These are the same betting odds that currently has them tied for #1 super bowl favorite.

Joe Burrow out for possibly the season, at the least 3 months. Ravens odds of winning the division goes up significantly.

Ravens next 4 games are all against playoff teams.. a combined regular season record of 50-18 a year ago.

Packers super bowl betting odds really jumped over the last 2 weeks. They were 1/20, then traded for Parsons and went to 1/14, to now 1/6.5. 1. Bills 2. Packers

The top 5 analog years are all in the last 5 years. How have you done in the last 5 years? The next two weeks should have a trough in the NE N. Pacific. If people are freaking out about warm SSTAs there, there really shouldn't be a strong, persistent trough developing but the atmosphere comes first and SSTs 2nd. In 2 weeks the warm water in the Gulf of Alaska should cool..

+PNA has high coastal low pressure correlation. So when we don't get that for many years people think that climate change is permanently changing the pattern lol. -EPO is very underrated just because of how flat central-North America is and a High pressure to the NW can really bring down cold air. +EPO isn't something we've seen much of lately. When it hits temperature forecasts almost always bust higher than expected. That's a pattern that when strong in January can lead to 70s in the Mid Atlantic. The Pacific definitely trumps the Atlantic as far as teleconnection patterns go, anomaly-wise, it goes more W->E vs N->S.

Yeah things aren't always what they seem. ENSO subsurface is cooling again with -4c in the central-region I found this correlates with the N. Pacific pattern most of all ENSO variables. The PNA correlation gets going in November, and has highest correlation in Jan-Feb.. if the cold water in the subsurface continues until then. Subsurface fluxes more than the surface. But we really haven't seen that much Aleutian ridging this year. With all the cold H5 near the Pole lately, a cold season +PNA is actually slightly favored just per the Summer Polar pattern. Will be interesting to see which of those two wins out this Winter.

They almost blocked that FG at the end. I don't know how the guy didn't block it actually, he had a completely clear lane to the kicker. 40 points, no INTs, 235 rushing yds and losing lol. The defense has been off since that D-coordinator who is now coach of SEA left. They have like 6 pro bowlers on defense. No excuses it should be that terrible. Buffalo was completing sidelines passes when they needed to.. last play of the half etc. It's pretty easy to defend against a desperate situation you would think...

We haven't been seeing a big Aleutian ridge though. It looks like a vortex over the Arctic circle will get down below 4950dm tomorrow! That is probably record breaking, occurring just north of Russia and coming in close to -500dm. These vortexes over the last few weeks have been something, in the last few days of August we also had a sub-5000dm vortex over the Arctic circle. These extremes are similar to like Cuba hitting freezing.

The Apr-May SLP pattern in the Atlantic was a giveaway.. something to look at in future years. Pattern never really supported a major warming of tropical Atlantic SSTs.

Atlantic (NAO) has slight inverse correlation from October to the Winter Pacific has a pretty strong direct correlation from October to the Winter, a lot of that is around the PDO, which is strongest in Oct out of PNA/ENSO.

Again, be happy it's not Winter August 2025 was the 6th consecutive +AO month. (Mar-Aug) August 2025 was the 7th consecutive +NAO month. (Feb-Aug) August 2025 was the 5/6 consecutive -PNA month. (Mar-Aug [Jul])

August 2025 was the 6th consecutive +AO month. (Mar-Aug) August 2025 was the 7th consecutive +NAO month. (Feb-Aug)

It looks like the Arctic circle vortex gets down to 5000dm today. This is after we just had a 4980dm low in the last few days of August, which was lowest ever recorded in the N. Hemisphere for August. Really a strong +AO time.

snowman19 has been pretty accurate with his predictions. Don't underestimate him.

Yeah, super rare.. like I said, a -400dm anomaly within 45 days of the hottest day of the year, that far south is really impressive!

Looks like it came south with the Pacific pattern, probably more -PNA than -EPO but I haven't seen the H5. Last months had a +SLP over Alaska and a low pressure underneath of it. This one doesn't really have that southern low. And it looks +NAO.

QBO actually works well with ENSO state for 10mb. El Nino/-QBO gives about 75% odds for Winter Stratosphere warmings, and La Nina/+QBO gives about 75% for Winter cold Stratosphere. Last year was Weak La Nina per RONI and with +QBO, it was one of the coldest 10mb's on record Nov-Feb. 2 years ago in -QBO/Strong El Nino we had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. ENSO and the QBO are at odds this Winter. In an unconnected ENSO state it runs about 55-60% warm 10mb for -QBO and 55-60% cold for +QBO. Remember, the QBO is a Stratosphere index, What it means at the surface depends on a lot of in between factors. I think we are pretty split this Winter on -NAO or +NAO indicators, with this recent 6-7 month consecutive +AO/+NAO usually rolling forward to the Winter for the same thing at about 0.2 correlation or 60% probability. Cold H5 during the Summer since the Arctic ice melt low in 2012 has usually put a following Winter ridge at 90N. I think we can possibly be looking at some -AO this Winter, but further south in the N. Atlantic it may be +NAO. The Stratosphere should be warm some of the time with strong -QBO in place, but that occurrence has time lag to -AO events at +15-45 days (depending when in the Winter the Stratosphere warming happens). It's actually really hard to say what XQBO will do to the pattern, since it occurs >30,000ft in the atmosphere. There is some Asia Mountain Torque possibility, which sometimes leads to +PNA, but the correlation on that is actually really weak.

GFS ensemble mean has -400dm over Wisconsin in 2 days. I wonder when was the last time we had the 5400dm line in the US within 45 days of the hottest of the year? It comes in as purple, and that's been a rare pattern lately, only really happening over the AO and NAO regions.