Stormchaserchuck1

I don't remember.. I'm sure it has happened, but I've noticed a big difference in these days between May and June.

I might not get out of the 60s Sunday and Monday. June is usually a big seasonal transition. I can't remember a time after my birthday (early June) where that has happened before (not getting out of the 60s).

Current CPC outlook for Jan-Feb-March doesn't have any major warmth like the Summer and Fall forecasts have except for Maine.. maybe they are going for -NAO.. and -PNA, -EPO probably I would take a +0.2F Winter lol

It certainly hasn't warmed up much this year. Colder seems to be the predominant pattern since last September, relative to the average global warming. I wouldn't be surprised if something close to last Winter happens this coming Winter.

Definitely doesn't have the feel of a super hot Summer.

Subsurface looks like there could be some warming over the next few months.. warmth is just below the surface. There is a big difference though between CPC and TAO/Triton maps. CPC has +2-3 subsurface anomalies in the thermocline where TAO shows negative.

It's probably going to break records into the 120s in quite a few places. I wonder if people will post Twitter links here when it happens. I've been following models for a very long time, and I've never seen such a strong, elongated, persistent ridge this close to warm season on that side of the globe..

Starts in 3-4 days, and models keep Iran area very above average through 384hr

I think they are going to get well into the 120s in some places in the Middle East.

Asia and the Middle East are really hot for the next 1-2 weeks. Big +AO pattern. The AO positive in June will be the 4th straight +AO month, and some of these >+1 daily readings we have seen are amongst the highest lately. Surprisingly, it doesn't roll forward to anything significant for the Winter.

ACE is probably a better metric. Either way, there is a clear SLP pattern of Atlantic tripole for active seasons Apr-May vs the opposite. We've had a little more +NAO/+AO this Apr-May.

That's the way I'm leaning too, but it wouldn't surprise me if the decadal started moving less positive 1st month in out of 4.. and the N. Atlantic SST index is slightly negative right now, Like -0.2

It looks like Apr to May this is the 3rd biggest move since 1948. The other two were trending negative to positive.. all 4 biggest moves since 2014. 1. 2024 -23.42 -6.52 2. 2015 -24.38 -12.33 3. 2025 6.94 -4.59 4. 2014 7.15 -2.81

We had a G4 solar storm 2 days ago, and G3 the day before that. This Winter is going to be another good data point for high solar.

Negative PNA After the lowest daily PNA since 2017, 8 years, in May, the PNA is forecasted to fall below -1 again June would be the 4th consecutive month with negative PNA I rolled forward the March-April-May PNA and April-May-June PNA to the following Winter, to see if it leads anything. Surprisingly, there is no PNA signal the following Winter.. correlation is near 0 in the North Pacific. So to say that this Spring/early Summer PNA is going to lead the Winter is not completely right. There is, however, a NAO signal. Negative PNA March-June puts the probability at about 56-57% that the Winter NAO will be negative [correlation of below maps is opposite] US temps for the following Winter are neutral, for the -PNA rolled forward. About the best you can hope for given the occurrence.

Final tallies are in for Apr-May SLP pattern of most active Atlantic Hurricane seasons since 1995: VS ACTUAL Tell me what you think, I think it's close to opposite I think with this the median we can expect this season is 13-14 Named Storms.. of course there are many other factors.

Negative PNA After the lowest daily PNA since 2017, 8 years, in May, the PNA is forecasted to fall below -1 again June would be the 4th consecutive month with negative PNA I rolled forward the March-April-May PNA and April-May-June PNA to the following Winter, to see if it leads anything. Surprisingly, there is no PNA signal the following Winter.. correlation is near 0 in the North Pacific. So to say that this Spring/early Summer PNA is going to lead the Winter is not completely right. There is, however, a NAO signal. Negative PNA March-June puts the probability at about 56-57% that the Winter NAO will be negative [correlation of below maps is opposite] US temps for the following Winter are neutral, for the -PNA rolled forward. About the best you can hope for.

I don't think the decadal state is going to change anytime soon.. June will likely be the 4th consecutive month with -PNA. I think there is intuition that what is happening is going to continue forward, but what global warming is, is a more general thing than the current state of the global pattern.

I think it's really silly that global warming is moving index patterns. This isn't something that is "maybe" to me, or "wait until the next decade". We have been in a west-based La Nina global state (tropical forcing on the dateline), and it has flexed the SE ridge along with probably a +AMO. I'll give that Winters are probably +3-4F warmer, but then you can correlate everything to what's going on everywhere else almost 100%. The biggest anomalies were Dec 2022 and March 2023, something was happening that did not let -NAO/-EPO penetrate.. it's probably connected to a Strong El Nino the following year and record Atlantic SSTs for 2023 and 2024. Since then -NAO's have run cooler over the last 2 Winters. 83% of Winter months have been +NAO since Dec 11.. 14 years. Something like 70% of months have been -PNA. It's no mystery at all why we are in a snowfall drought. I actually thought that it should have started sooner. I think he's right that things are getting warmer (shocking) but is 20-30 years ahead of time, using the last 7 years to say it's somewhat of a permanent thing. The thing is, the next few Winters might be like this as the decadal states aren't changing anytime soon.

I think what you are saying bluewave is that the NAO would be -0.75 if 09-10 happened today, vs the -1.5 that it was back then.

With the wind blowing, this evening felt colder than a lot of Winter days lately.

13/7/4

DCA: +1.6 NYC: +1.8 BOS: +2.0 ORD: +0.8 ATL: +0.6 IAH: +0.7 DEN: +2.5 PHX: +2.7 SEA: +1.0

I don't think so.. 09-10 was the most -NAO Winter on record, since the 1800s. Part of that is an elongated trough from the eastern US to Europe. I hear what you are saying, that a SE ridge has been happening for the last 10-15 years, but part of that is the NAO SLP not being negative. If the upper latitude pattern was the same (+PNA/-AO/-NAO), we would most definitely see snowstorms repeated again. You posted an Atlantic map of 09-10 a few pages back in the EA analysis.. Unless you are saying that type of Atlantic pattern is no longer possible? 80% of months during the year above average.. so even without indices you can say it's 75-80%, but there are definitely climate phenomenon that have led to this snowfall drought. I think you are putting too much stock on the last 10 year wrt climate indices.

Global warming should favor more high pressures, the problem is that the high pressures are happening at the mid-latitudes vs upper latitudes. I think we are still near a peak in the -PNA/-PDO.. it may take some time to wind down, but I do think something like a really active sun could create more low pressure systems (+PDO). The 2040s should be a really nice time with -NAO decadal and +PDO decadal, but by then the global temperature may have caught up. I don't see however how the warmth near Japan is global warming, it's not like they are giving off a lot of pollution. Maybe a slowing of ocean currents is warming the west side in the Pacific and Atlantic? PDO has been recorded to have many swings, so for now you might say it is a cycle we are in.