Wow
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All the models are "close" to making a big storm out of this... Euro has a good look on the southern wave but pulls the 50/50 out too fast. Canadian has a good look with the 50/50 low but doesn't have enough separation with the southern wave. GFS has the best look obviously at this time. Given it's 6-7 days out, I'm satisfied.
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12z Euro has the players there again but doesn't get the job done bringing down the cold air, pulling the HP out too quickly and throwing in a low over the GL
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Yes, the GFS is closer to the ideal setup with the S Canadian ridge over the southern low. Want to see the low placed a little more SE... but that ridge is really good to see.
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0z Euro was close with a southern slider but the high slides off too quickly. Still, the players are there. Good to see the Ontario/Quebec ridge which is a feature seen in most significant winter storms for our area. That keeps the dreaded great lakes low away. Just need to see the southern low closer to the TN valley at this time frame.
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33.1 and rain.
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This agrees with the 18z GEFS...slower, less amped storm. Presto! It's a snowstorm.
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GEFS is not in agreement with the OP... most members hav the sfc low much slower and weaker as a slider
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I still like the setup the GFS shows in 9-10 days... 50/50 low and rather robust wave trekking across the south. Verbatim it's too warm but if that 50/50 low can trend a bit stronger to build in the HP we'd be in business. Euro, while not showing this exact storm, does show lower height field off Newfoundland and Greenland blocking. Getting that upper low there is key to bring down the cold. The STJ is full throttle so just like last winter, we are not in need of bring in the precip.
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I think the time period beginning 10-12 days from now has some promise
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18z gfs a bit faster with the wave and moves in just as the CAD starts to work in.. not enough to change over to ice well into SC this time, though. Threading that needle.
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Euro is stronger (a good trend) with wave 1 compared to prev run (which is the only wave that is moving through at just the right time with CAD in place), however it's not strong enough with wave 2 kicking it away without much more development.
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12z Euro stronger with the wave thru 96 .. good sign there
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Given the relative weakness of the wave this seems like nice transition zone between 40 and 85 with a nasty, nasty ice storm into SC
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GFS is on its own with the placement of the southern low while all the rest of the models agree that it will be holding its own to varying degrees over the SW/Texas by 12z 12/11.. 12z Euro: 12z Canadian: 12z JMA: 12z NAVGEM: 18z GFS:
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Nice trend w/ the GFS... Confluent flow over the NE.. kicks the whole southern upper low out, though phases in a s/w from the polar jet that winds up the sfc low a bit too early and pulls the "primary" low into the TN valley but with the 50/50 low it spins off a coastal quickly as well. 0z Euro, however, dropped it this run. But this is 7-9 day range.. I like our chances.
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That was a good storm event. 1.42" total with some lighting flashes and long rumbles of thunder.
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Closing in on 1" ... still 46 deg Got my first fire of the season going.
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46 deg heavy rain love it
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yeah.. boring... right.
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Welp, the 6z run was quite slower and stronger with the wave... but moved the HP out too quickly.
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As always, it would be nice to see a trend of the southern wave a little stronger/slower to allow the HP to build in. Still in a range where that's not a far cry from happening.
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GFS on its own right now keeping this wave moving along and not getting crushed, ironically. Euro parking the wave over the SW and doesn't kick it along.
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12 GFS close to showing some non-rain precip next Friday. Temps hovering in the 30s all day in CAD areas.
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is it a wrong password error? I tried recaching the server side files again
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what is your username over there?
