Wow
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That's some serious NAMage over the southern foothills
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verbatim the snow is confined to the mtns
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GFS opened up the wave and gave up. It's gonna happen in this range. Everyone remain seated.
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0z NAM starting that off well
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That looks nice. Soundings are solid.
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Looks like the 12z run mostly
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I'm 50% sure it'll be one or the other.
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0z NAM digging the wave further SW at 33 hrs... More like the 6z run and closer to the 18z ICON .
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Just without the frigid air
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..until the 0z models come in
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movement of the precip per the 18z GEFS
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fully stacked ULL to surface low over SE NC at 96 hrs. Beautiful.
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18z GFS slower with the ULL energy as well, same as the NAM so the trough axis is a bit more positive at 66
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The trough axis stays positive longer.. that'll help with WAA and any warm noses ahead of the ULL.
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NAM is way south with the low at 81...
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NAM about 50 miles south of of 12z position of sfc low .. in the gulf now, S of Mobile @ 75
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18z NAM a little slower with the ULL progression but it's still digging well south.. The base of it nearly to New Orleans @ 66 hrs. Sfc low over MBY at 69
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Nevermind the snow maps, the setup is there for a pretty widespread event for NC/VA
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Yeah, the parallel GFS shows how the ULL will keep the precip over the area longer
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Yes it's all how they are interpreting the profiles. here N of CLT it's only marginal at the surface... a decent precip rate and it's all snow easily.. and based on the strength of that ULL there should be while the low is passing under us.
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With the cutoff ULL I'd expect to see a lot more precip build back from CLT to RDU but you're likely not going to see that get picked up on the models until we're within 48-60 hrs
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Beautiful. ULL tracking over central GA. Gonna see some good stuff outta this... Verbatim N of I-85 as usual
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Boom
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Yeah, 0z GFS further south with the sfc low at 90
