Wow
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Everything posted by Wow
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Yes there's a bend in the isobars and wind barbs per the maps the indicative there's something there to push in enough WAA. But this is big step though.
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If the low tracks from FL panhandle to Charleston as shown, you are not going to have that much ice. It's a mostly snow/rain event. Climatology rules.
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ULL really digging south. FIngers crossed... This will significantly reduce the ice threat with a Miller A track. Ignore the precip maps showing ice everywhere.
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Wow the NAM just went Miller A .. looks like the model outputs from Monday/Tuesday. That would be huge to see the rest of the models move back to this!
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Weaker and faster is the ideal solution.. Once it's rolls east of the Mississippi.. let 'er rip
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NAM made a big move east and weaker with the s/w. That's going to tame the primary low. Maybe a Miller A isn't off the table quite yet...
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Better but matter how far south that surface low goes it's still a Miller B and there's gonna be a changeover to sleet and ice unless the ULL digs far enough south.
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GEFS following the same trend
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Here's a nice loop of 500mb GFS from 0z Jan 11 when the NW trend started and then starting to reverse itself in today's runs
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Surface reflection is still a mess but the trend is clear
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Out to 60... the ULL is just about where it was at yesterday's 12z run
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GFS continuing the trend
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Trend loop of the RGEM showing the trend west then trending back east over the past 36 hrs
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ICON trend FWIW
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NAM in the Euro camp keeping the track south
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@78 the SLP is over Mobile AL ...
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Oh yes the 18z Euro is chef's kiss right there. No primary low pushing up the TN Valley and the 50/50 doing its job locking in the HP and keeping this one low and slow.
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A couple more movements like this and would get a lot more folks back in the game.
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Big improvement with the gfs .. less amped with the primary low . The hope is we can erase this trend over the past 24 hrs.
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Gfs finally trended more east/faster with the wave. Need more of this!
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Don't look at the surface maps
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Want to see it faster or weaker.. too much separation will let the low pull up too early
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ensemble mean still has the MSLP just off the coast.. not buying the inland track yet
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ice is terrible. Don't wish ice for anyone.
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