within 10 days on the setup.. we'll call it a plausible solution. The cold air will definitely be there. Won't sniff out a possible low until we're within a few days with the number of weak short waves moving underneath the PV.
There will be a healthy upper low off the CA coast by 144 hrs that'll be pumping out these waves in pieces as it presses in toward the PV. Most will be sheared out but after the PV spins out and gives some breathing room, that'll be perfect time to pop a low in the GOM if one of these waves can phase in enough energy on the back side of the PJ/AJ.