Wow
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Everything posted by Wow
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it's whitened up well here. 33.1/31 good stuff
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Big flakes in Mooresville.
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Snowing in Mooresville
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Also - go look back at models runs a week ago forecast for today. Both the Euro and GFS showed a ridge off the east coast. I'm pretty confident the cold pattern will return for next week.
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That's the s/w that the 18z run on Feb 3 bombed out. Not out of the realm yet. If the PV can kick out a little faster and the PNA ridge a little stronger... 2/3 18z same time
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makes sense. on to 0z.!
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meh.. i'm crossing fingers for next week. i need a foot.
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Heh, I'm having a rum and coke right now. Funny how we forget that nearly every storm is like this.
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better.. vs 6z.
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GFS stepped back some from the 6z craphole.. It has a problem wanting to wrap up the PV too far west .. need to see it more elongated and building closer to the 50/50 benchmark like the Euro and the previous GFS runs (ala the glorious 2/3 18z run). The Euro actually looks close to that run..
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https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+Cycle+47r2 https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/2020/10/15/News+on+the+next+model+upgrade+-+IFS+cycle+47r2 Should be fully implemented later this year
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Good chance of sig accumulations in the higher elevations. It's just going to be tough further east until that arctic air moves in.
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wow i counted 3 separate waves move across as the arctic high pressed in between 2/11 -13.. the whole point of this is there's a strong signal for a widespread southern snow event
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I think we need to make a thread dedicated to this run. Dear God.. it's beautiful. The 500mb time lapse is absolute perfection.
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here ya go wx weenies
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yup, i'll take it
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The problem with Sunday is the northern wave with accompanying arctic high has trending slower so it only has marginal in-situ sfc cold air to work with so i think it going limit the snow to higher elevations even if the precip from the southern wave makes it up here. If the northern wave pushed through first it's a different story.. it's all about how fast the HP moves in to determine which southern waves are going to make a big play.
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Euro still on board with the second storm. Check out the HP!
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Oh i'm liking the looks of this now with the Euro keeping on track. Two good shots here.. Ideally, I'd like the first wave to slow and string out to allow a weak wave move across to minimize WAA and have a classic overrunning storm for the mtns & piedmont. Then top it off with wave #2 which will most definitely be a classic Miller A mover with that strong confluence zone forcing the sfc low to move from the gulf coast up the SE coast.
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18z GFS trending the right direction..
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It's been great seeing the Atlantic come back to a sustained seasonal -NAO after several years but then losing the Pacific to lock out the arctic air is just downright insulting. The last hope here something like this where the PNA ridge finally breaks through...
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Oh yeah that look at the end of the Euro run would rival Jan 88 in terms of a cold snow.. NC in the teens and single digits ahead of the storm.
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the key here is that SW wave breaking off rather than fully phasing in and dumping everything out west. that will kickstart a great setup for us.
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... then the SW wave kicks out post arctic high...
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nice setup + arctic outbreak behind it
