Wow
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The trough axis stays positive longer.. that'll help with WAA and any warm noses ahead of the ULL.
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NAM is way south with the low at 81...
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NAM about 50 miles south of of 12z position of sfc low .. in the gulf now, S of Mobile @ 75
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18z NAM a little slower with the ULL progression but it's still digging well south.. The base of it nearly to New Orleans @ 66 hrs. Sfc low over MBY at 69
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Nevermind the snow maps, the setup is there for a pretty widespread event for NC/VA
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Yeah, the parallel GFS shows how the ULL will keep the precip over the area longer
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Yes it's all how they are interpreting the profiles. here N of CLT it's only marginal at the surface... a decent precip rate and it's all snow easily.. and based on the strength of that ULL there should be while the low is passing under us.
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With the cutoff ULL I'd expect to see a lot more precip build back from CLT to RDU but you're likely not going to see that get picked up on the models until we're within 48-60 hrs
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Beautiful. ULL tracking over central GA. Gonna see some good stuff outta this... Verbatim N of I-85 as usual
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Boom
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Yeah, 0z GFS further south with the sfc low at 90
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LOL yeah that was a raw deal for the immediate foothills. With the 50/50 in place that shouldn't be a problem here. Sfc temps already in the mid 30's before the precip even arrives per NAM
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The ICON is a pile of Scheisse
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It's a beautiful setup there with the ULL. 0z NAM is slower with wrapping up the ULL show the sfc low track is going to stay well south. Should be a classic miller A track there. I'm trying to find a good analog storm here.. perhaps March '09 with with a 50/50 low in place!
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top right corner will verify that
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0z NAM @ 84. This looks promising. Sfc low over MSY. Pretty nice phase setting up and with the low heights over the N Atlantic it can't pull it up north.
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dude!
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No worries about the moisture.. it'll be there with the strength of this ULL. Actually the temps above the surface trended colder NW of the low
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It's a better track. Again, cold air supply is going to be the question.
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Here's the trend of the GEFS. The ULL trending south and height building overhead into the great lakes which reinforces the HP. Continue just a bit more and would put a lot more of NC in range.
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It's closer.. Still would like it to dig about 80-100 miles further south to pop a low on the gulf coast. It's tracking the low over central MS/AL/GA
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Compared to 12z yesterday, definitely in the right direction
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0z Euro had a favorable track and enough cold air is there to work with. Depends how quickly the secondary can pop to allow the lower and mid level cold air to sweep in.
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Yes slower with the low transfer. Pulls the primary low pulls into KY while the secondary moves through GA. OP GFS was further south.
