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RU848789

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Everything posted by RU848789

  1. RU848789
    Just took a quick walk - gorgeous out there with moderate (not quite heavy) snow and 1/4" down; guessing another 1/4" before this band ends - nice!
  2. RU848789
    Light snow has begun here in Metuchen! Band looks thinner, so hoping for 1/2" out of it... Edit - 1 min later and it's moderate - didn't expect that, lol...
  3. RU848789
    Didn't see anyone mention that, surprisingly, the NWS-NYC upped their snowfall forecast for NYC metro at 10 am. Not sure why, since there was no AFD update at the same time, but they did. Here you go...
  4. RU848789
    Best post in the thread. Confirmation bias is a terrible thing, lol.
  5. RU848789
    Walt - I know you know a ton more about meteorology than I do, but I have a ton of knowledge about heat transfer/physical chemistry (PhD in chem eng'g) and I'd quibble with one point in your post. Once there is a layer of frozen precip on the ground (and there will be) the 2M surface temp becomes largely irrelevant to whether falling snow will accumulate at the surface, since the "actual surface" is snow, which, by definition, has a maximum temp of 32F and can't ever get warmer than that (will melt at 32F). If you're talking about bare paved surfaces (plowed or treated), then the actual surface will quickly warm to the 2M surface temp and further snow accumulations on the paved surfaces could be more difficult, unless, of course the falling snow rate exceeds the melting rate at the surface and with moderate snow or heavier, that will occur, as melting rates after dark at 33-34F should be <1/4" per hour.
  6. RU848789
    NWS (Philly and NYC offices) reduced snowfall a bit for areas along and south of 78 (and 495 east of Manhattan), including for NYC, based mostly on less QPF while temps are cold enough, according to the AFDs. None of the advisory counties changed and the advisories still say 2-4" for NE NJ/NYC/LI, but the maps have less within that 2-4" range. A little surprised as I didn't think the 0Z models had backed off on snowfall amounts, but what do I know, lol.
  7. RU848789
    Euro comes in a bit snowier than today's 12Z, like most of the other 0Z models. Nice. Might actually get 2-3" out of this in the 95 corridor.
  8. RU848789
    It all depends, obviously, but if one gets 2" of snow and 0.3" of sleet, then that's about 0.3" frozen LE and if the amount of rain that then falls is <0.3", most of the rain would be absorbed, making for a fairly dense mass of slush - in areas to the NW where it will likely go below 32F later at night, it could make for some cement. Shouldn't happen along the 95 corridor and SE of there, as temps don't look to fall back below 32F until Sunday night. Still, I just want to see some white stuff for more than a few hours, lol.
  9. RU848789
    The Euro backed off a bit on snowfall for the 95 corridor and towards the coast vs. the last couple of runs. Interestingly, the NWS offices kind of flip-flopped with their forecast snowfall, with the Philly office decreasing snowfall vs. yesterday's forecast, while the NYC office upped the snowfall forecast a fair amount. The two offices are moderately far apart at the boundaries between the offices (Passaic/Essex/Union/SI vs. Sussex/Morris/Somerset/Middlesex) - hopefully these discontinuities are cleared up before the event or someone will be wrong, lol.
  10. RU848789
    latitude sometimes really matters. Recall 3/1 and 3/3 earlier this year, where most of us in northern Middlesex County got 9-11" of snow, combined (I got 10.5"), while folks 5-10 miles south in East Brunswick and Sayreville only got 2-4" of snow/sleet with some rain. I even drove around the morning after one of those to see the gradient from Metuchen (5.5") to Highland Park (3") to New Brunswick (2") to East Brunswick (1").
  11. RU848789
    Yep, even 5 days out, every global model is showing some snow for the Philly-NYC corridor and even towards the coast, with the usual SE to NW, less to more snow gradient being likely. Surprised nobody posted the relevant model output - here you go. Note that most of the snow for the 95 corridor looks to fall between early afternoon and late evening, depending on the model - I included maps through Sunday morning to include total snowfall through New England. If I could lock in the 2-3" the Euro shows for me now I would (let alone the 5-6" on the GFS/CMC).
  12. RU848789
    Ended up with about an inch on colder surfaces, with nothing on paved surfaces, so no impact at all from this little event. Nice surprise to see at least a little snow - was very pretty out there overnight and should be gone soon...
  13. RU848789
    that time of year kids...
  14. RU848789
    Hey Philly folks - is there anywhere to get archived forecasts (and snowmaps) from the various Philly TV stations for this past storm? Were they predicting 6-8" for Philly? I know the NWS was estimating 4-6" for Philly, so just curious. Thanks.
  15. RU848789
    NWS-Philly12pm1-7.png
  16. RU848789
    bump again - not sure why not pinned...
  17. RU848789
    Agree with the LOL. I once spent about 15 minutes talking meteorology with him and it was clear that, while he has a met degree (from Kean), his depth of knowledge of complex meteorological science is limited, as he admitted when I asked him some probing technical questions (I wasn't trying to trip him up - was hoping he could give me some insight into the Arrhenius relationship between atmospheric temperature, energy and moisture content and he said he's not really a "science" guy, but was more interested in forecasting). Nice guy, but no Walt Drag.
  18. RU848789
    Thanks, wasn't familiar with that mode - maybe they should note it's in that mode on the radar page. Also, I understand the concept of scanning more slowly to better detect very light precip, but I still don't understand why they'd show "negative" dBZ returns - for Mt. Holly right now, there are what appear to be thin brown bands of "non-precip" (several of which are nowhere near Hillsborough, so it's not that). http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/239/ Yes, I know and appreciate that - is there any downside to permanently pinning? There have been multiple times there were storms in other regions and many of the graphics in this thread pertain to much larger areas than NYC Metro, so I find it annoying to have to hunt a few pages for this thread. Just wondering...
  19. RU848789
    Maybe a dumb question, but on this radar and the standard NWS radar sites, all of a sudden I'm seeing "non-precip" shown, whatever that is (negative dBZ's in brown/grey mostly), which makes it hard to see the actual blues and greens (and more) denoting actual precip. Anyone know why that is the case? http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dix&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Also, IMO this thread out to be pinned in perpetuity and not allowed to slide off the first page, as it's a great thread regardless of whether or not we have an active storm.
  20. RU848789
    I usually just rely on y'all for posting model graphics, since I'm not that well versed in searching through e-wall and getting the info on my own, plus I hate wasting my time if someone else has done something (thanks!). However, occasionally, I like to look at a model ru nor two on my own and right now, if I go to the e-wall and go to the 0000UTC Models area (0Z) and then click on, say, the NAM at 06 hours, the time stamp appears to be for last night's (1/21) 0Z NAM (not the current one or 1/22), whereas if I click on the 18Z NAM that ran earlier today, the time stamp (1/21 intializing at 1800) appears correct. Am I doing something wrong? Is there a better source than the PSU e-wall? Gracias...
  21. RU848789
    Thanks, I found the radar loops (linked), but am now wondering if there is any way to control the speed/timing of them or to pause them and capture screen shots and the like. It appears as if all one can see is a very fast 24 hour loop that can't be stopped. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=EWR&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=TR0&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&delay=100&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0
  22. RU848789
    Just curious - anyone know where I could find a radar loop of the heavy rainfall period from Mt. Holly and/or Upton? I've seen the radar totals, but not any loops. Thanks.
  23. RU848789
    Question: I always thought these were the times the model output started coming out, not when they started running. I always thought the 0Z suite, for example, all started running with 0Z, or 7 pm EST, data inputs and that the models took varying times to run, hence producing different output times. Can anyone confirm whether that's right or wrong? If it's wrong, then why call them all the 0Z suite, then?
  24. RU848789
    Pinnage please! (then delete this post to unclutter the thread)...
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